Yesterday, I posted my comments on the Saudi Royal Family and today Dick Morris chimed in to agree. His article is posted below.
What are the chances of leadership change in the Kingdom? Can it happen? One would think that chances now are about even. Much depends upon the effect the money that is being doled out by the Royal Family; how many agitators there are; how large a demonstration occurs on Friday and the responses of the government. Will there be a crackdown like Libya? One would believe the current King would not fire on his subjects like Gaddafi is doing. If they did not crack heads, would that only encourage those who would like to see the end of the House of Saud ? On the other hand, if they violently responded to the protesters, how would the world react? Additionally as we see in Dick's article, the current leaders are not healthy and the young members of the Family are not well respected. For all these reasons, it is 50/50 that we will see new leadership. If I was a betting man, my guess would be they will see new leadership.
So let's talk about the downside. If the current government of Saudi Arabia is overthrown and the new leadership does not maintain current production levels or re-directed production to countries more favorable to their administration, the world (and most notably the United States) will be rocked to its footings. Such actions would cause global markets to plummet and gold and oil prices will skyrocket. Currently, the Kingdom produces 13% of the global output of oil when ccombined with the 2% of missing oil from Libya, we have nearly 1 in 6 barrels of oil missing from world markets. That would not be a pretty situation.
We grouse about $3.75 per gallon gas which would seem cheap if everything goes wrong. Can you imagine trying to fill up your car at $6? Maybe it is time for me to get a motorcycle!
One would hope that the worst case scenario would not take place, that the Saudi Royal Family would survive and the current Middle East upheavals would end. However, that is like putting your head in the sand and ignoring what might occur. Frankly, I would hope the President, Congress and their advisors are not taking that approach but I doubt that is the case.
Up to this time, we have heard lots of talk and the only action has been a discussion on opening the oil reserve. Talk about putting up a beaver dam to stop a flood! There has been no discussion that I have heard regarding opening up ANWR or the Gulf. This is the time to listen to Sarah Palin and "drill, baby drill." I also like some of Dick's suggestions regarding the gas tax moratorium, nuclear, EPA regulations and drilling incentives.Unless we can provide for ourselves in the U.S. with our oil needs, we are going to be held captive to world events and that is not a position into which we should put ourselves.
Oil is the one commodity that effects all aspects of our economy. Not only does it provide the fuel for our vehicles (cars, trucks, trains, ships) but many other commodities that we use every day. Plastics make up nearly every product manufactured today and the roads we drive on are two examples of oil byproducts at use in our daily lives. Where would we go if we lost a substantial part of our supply of oil? The answer is not far.
We all need to write our Representatives, Senators and the President and demand (yes, that is the word I would use) they address this issue by taking emergency steps to ensure that the United States has adequate supplies of oil, not for the short-term but more importantly long-term. Now is not the time to experiment with "green" products which for the most part are unproven. We have to go now with proven products and unfortunately that has to be oil based. Once we have a guaranteed stream of dependable oil, it will at that time we can then try to replace our oil based economy with these new ways.
Regardless whether the Saudi situation goes the wrong way or not, this is not going to be the only time we will be faced with an oil shortage and now is the time to fix it. We did not do it after 1973 and things have only gotten worse. The time is now and there is no better time to change things than the present. Let's roll!!
Here is Dick's article:
NEXT TO FALL: SAUDI ARABIA
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
Published on DickMorris.com on March 9, 2011
We can do without Libya's two million barrels a day of oil albeit with significant disruptions in the global economy. But if we lose Saudi Arabia's nine million, we will face a global catastrophe.
And the Saudi monarchy will be the next casualty of the Middle East revolutionary wave. The king is 86 years old and very ill. The next two men in line are both over 80 and both sick. And, behind those three in line are 7,000 princes, each ambitious and at war with one another. The monarchy will not be able to buy off the opposition for long with cash subsidies. (We are indebted to Bret Stephens of the Wall Street Journal for these insights).
The fall of Saudi Arabia will accelerate the stagflation that will mar the final two years of the one-term Obama Presidency.
Republicans need to ratchet up their rhetoric about new drilling for oil. The 2008 liberal counter-argument that new drilling is not a short term solution begs the question of why the Administration has not used the intervening two years to effectuate the longer term solution that it offered.
Republicans need to be more vocal in criticizing the Administration for its defacto moratorium on off-shore drilling. Obama's people are so sensitive to these criticisms that they just approved the first permit since the BP spill.
Republicans must call for reining in the regulatory hoops that on-shore slate drilling has to go through to get approval.
Republicans should press for much, much shorter approval times for nuclear power and a ban on EPA regulation and taxation of carbon and coal.
The Party should attack Obama's proposed elimination of the Oil Depletion Allowance and other energy tax breaks and make clear that these incentives are vital for new energy development.
Finally, the Republicans should resurrect the issue of drilling in the ANWR Preserve in Alaska.
Sarah Palin should take the lead in this critique since energy development is her major field of real substantive expertise. It is an ideal opportunity for her to speak to a broader constituency.
Republicans should also propose a moratorium on the federal gas tax by passing legislation in the House to trigger a reduction once gas goes above $4 and total suspension if it rises above $5 per gallon. When the price drops again below $4, the gas tax can come back on line. Such a proposal will mean a cessation of campaign funding from highway contractors, but so be it.
Obama's opposition to fossil fuels is his real Achilles Heel. At some level of gas prices, everybody is for fossil fuel development. Nobody is "green" at $6 a gallon!
Should Obama Release Strategic Oil Reserves?
What are the chances of leadership change in the Kingdom? Can it happen? One would think that chances now are about even. Much depends upon the effect the money that is being doled out by the Royal Family; how many agitators there are; how large a demonstration occurs on Friday and the responses of the government. Will there be a crackdown like Libya? One would believe the current King would not fire on his subjects like Gaddafi is doing. If they did not crack heads, would that only encourage those who would like to see the end of the House of Saud ? On the other hand, if they violently responded to the protesters, how would the world react? Additionally as we see in Dick's article, the current leaders are not healthy and the young members of the Family are not well respected. For all these reasons, it is 50/50 that we will see new leadership. If I was a betting man, my guess would be they will see new leadership.
So let's talk about the downside. If the current government of Saudi Arabia is overthrown and the new leadership does not maintain current production levels or re-directed production to countries more favorable to their administration, the world (and most notably the United States) will be rocked to its footings. Such actions would cause global markets to plummet and gold and oil prices will skyrocket. Currently, the Kingdom produces 13% of the global output of oil when ccombined with the 2% of missing oil from Libya, we have nearly 1 in 6 barrels of oil missing from world markets. That would not be a pretty situation.
We grouse about $3.75 per gallon gas which would seem cheap if everything goes wrong. Can you imagine trying to fill up your car at $6? Maybe it is time for me to get a motorcycle!
One would hope that the worst case scenario would not take place, that the Saudi Royal Family would survive and the current Middle East upheavals would end. However, that is like putting your head in the sand and ignoring what might occur. Frankly, I would hope the President, Congress and their advisors are not taking that approach but I doubt that is the case.
Up to this time, we have heard lots of talk and the only action has been a discussion on opening the oil reserve. Talk about putting up a beaver dam to stop a flood! There has been no discussion that I have heard regarding opening up ANWR or the Gulf. This is the time to listen to Sarah Palin and "drill, baby drill." I also like some of Dick's suggestions regarding the gas tax moratorium, nuclear, EPA regulations and drilling incentives.Unless we can provide for ourselves in the U.S. with our oil needs, we are going to be held captive to world events and that is not a position into which we should put ourselves.
Oil is the one commodity that effects all aspects of our economy. Not only does it provide the fuel for our vehicles (cars, trucks, trains, ships) but many other commodities that we use every day. Plastics make up nearly every product manufactured today and the roads we drive on are two examples of oil byproducts at use in our daily lives. Where would we go if we lost a substantial part of our supply of oil? The answer is not far.
We all need to write our Representatives, Senators and the President and demand (yes, that is the word I would use) they address this issue by taking emergency steps to ensure that the United States has adequate supplies of oil, not for the short-term but more importantly long-term. Now is not the time to experiment with "green" products which for the most part are unproven. We have to go now with proven products and unfortunately that has to be oil based. Once we have a guaranteed stream of dependable oil, it will at that time we can then try to replace our oil based economy with these new ways.
Regardless whether the Saudi situation goes the wrong way or not, this is not going to be the only time we will be faced with an oil shortage and now is the time to fix it. We did not do it after 1973 and things have only gotten worse. The time is now and there is no better time to change things than the present. Let's roll!!
Here is Dick's article:
NEXT TO FALL: SAUDI ARABIA
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
Published on DickMorris.com on March 9, 2011
We can do without Libya's two million barrels a day of oil albeit with significant disruptions in the global economy. But if we lose Saudi Arabia's nine million, we will face a global catastrophe.
And the Saudi monarchy will be the next casualty of the Middle East revolutionary wave. The king is 86 years old and very ill. The next two men in line are both over 80 and both sick. And, behind those three in line are 7,000 princes, each ambitious and at war with one another. The monarchy will not be able to buy off the opposition for long with cash subsidies. (We are indebted to Bret Stephens of the Wall Street Journal for these insights).
The fall of Saudi Arabia will accelerate the stagflation that will mar the final two years of the one-term Obama Presidency.
Republicans need to ratchet up their rhetoric about new drilling for oil. The 2008 liberal counter-argument that new drilling is not a short term solution begs the question of why the Administration has not used the intervening two years to effectuate the longer term solution that it offered.
Republicans need to be more vocal in criticizing the Administration for its defacto moratorium on off-shore drilling. Obama's people are so sensitive to these criticisms that they just approved the first permit since the BP spill.
Republicans must call for reining in the regulatory hoops that on-shore slate drilling has to go through to get approval.
Republicans should press for much, much shorter approval times for nuclear power and a ban on EPA regulation and taxation of carbon and coal.
The Party should attack Obama's proposed elimination of the Oil Depletion Allowance and other energy tax breaks and make clear that these incentives are vital for new energy development.
Finally, the Republicans should resurrect the issue of drilling in the ANWR Preserve in Alaska.
Sarah Palin should take the lead in this critique since energy development is her major field of real substantive expertise. It is an ideal opportunity for her to speak to a broader constituency.
Republicans should also propose a moratorium on the federal gas tax by passing legislation in the House to trigger a reduction once gas goes above $4 and total suspension if it rises above $5 per gallon. When the price drops again below $4, the gas tax can come back on line. Such a proposal will mean a cessation of campaign funding from highway contractors, but so be it.
Obama's opposition to fossil fuels is his real Achilles Heel. At some level of gas prices, everybody is for fossil fuel development. Nobody is "green" at $6 a gallon!
Should Obama Release Strategic Oil Reserves?
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