Iran Raises The Bar With Successful Missile Test

Last week, Iran successfully, if you can believe their press, tested a missile that has a range of 200 km (120 miles) it is called the Qadr.  If it becomes operational, it could threaten ships in the Straits of Hormuz. It is a coast to water type of weapon designed by Iran to assist their Navy if they decide to close the sea lanes.

So let's say it is operational and the power to be in Tehran decide that they are dissatisfied with the sanctions the world has placed on Iran.  Would they use their new toy to sink a  ship in the Straits?  It would only take one well placed sunken ship to block the small passage. Would the United States take any action? What about the UN, aren't the Straits international waters? Would the world have the guts to have a show down with Iran?

In previous US administrations, the answer would have been immediate and dramatic, however, we have a "lets talk about it" administration.  If the Straits were closed, the price of oil would jump dramatically which would have devastating effects on our and Europe's economy. Would this press the administration into moving against Iran or would the peace-niks in the White House and State Department want to talk first?  Probably the latter will happen.

So what does Iran have to lose if it sinks "my battleship/my supertanker/my aircraft carrier?"  The world would probably continue the same sanctions in place already for making things harder on the country would only "hurt the people, not the rulers."  They might ban the sale of Iranian oil to China and other buyers. We doubt there would be an outright attack against Iran other than maybe taking out the battery which fired the missile. (It would not be a proportional response!  Heard that somewhere before?) In other words, not much would happen.  Why would they not do it?  My guess is that they will as they will have done the same calculations.

Isn't it sad that we can sit here and predict that hundreds to thousands of seamen/women could be endangered because we and the rest of the world are viewed as paper tigers?  We look fearsome, but have nothing to back us up.  Iran is not afraid of losing thousands to make their statement while we meekly make protestations that sound tough but are not backed by action.

Obviously, we hope that we are wrong, totally and absolutely wrong. Nothing would make us happier to write an apology.  Unfortunately, we do not thing that will happen. What do you think?

Conservative Tom

Iran Tests Missile that Can Hit US and Israeli Bases

Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu - Arutz-7,  January 2nd, 2012

Iran escalated tension with the West and Israel Monday, claiming that one of its warships successfully fired a long-range coast-to-sea “Qadr” missile that can hit Israel and the United States. The test was conducted as part of the Velayat-90 war games.  

“The missile managed to hit the desired targets with precision and totally destroy them,” according to the official Iranian government IRNA news agency.

The missile test conducted was on the last day of the 10-day war exercise, which included maneuvers for the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway for between 20 and 40 percent of the world’s energy needs. President Barack Obama has vowed he will not allow Iran to close the waterway.

On Saturday, he also signed new sanctions against Iran and nations dealing with it, but the law including the sanctions contains a waiver allowing him to delay imposing them by giving other countries more time to break off dealing with the Central Bank of Iran and the country’s oil and gas sector.

Another official Iran news agency quoted navy spokesman Commodore Mahmoud Mousavi as saying, “From tomorrow morning (Monday), a vast majority of our naval units – surface and underwater, and aerial –  will implement a new tactical formation, designed to make the passage of any vessel through the Strait of Hormuz impossible if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s navy so chooses.”