More Iranian Bluster Or Is It?

Lets say that on February 12, 2012 the nuclear carrier US Carl Vinson and its escort vessels (or some other US flag vessels) approaches the Straits of Hormuz, a warning is sent out by Iran to avoid the area and to turn about.  What does the Commander in Chief do?  Will he tell the ship's Captain to soldier on, turn around or something else?

It appears as if we are heading for a conflict with Iran over the Straits and our freedom to navigate these international waters.  Will Iran try to sink one of our ships? Will they back down?  Will they start harassing tanker traffic?

If we were to guess (and that is dangerous when dealing with a madman like Iran's current President Ahmadinejad).  Any leader who threatens to destroy another country cannot be stable, however, one cannot underestimate his actions. We feel that he will threaten tanker traffic as well as vessels from other countries including the US. He probably will try to sink some vessel in the straits as a way to make his point on the sanctions. Will it be an American ship? Possibly, if the timing works for him. Otherwise, any ship will work.

The response from the White House will depend upon whose ship is sunk.  If it is another country's, our "Apologist In Chief" will issue a strong worded warning and take no action.  If it is one of ours, he will send some other naval forces to the area but do nothing else. The loss of life will be blamed on the Bush Administration's negative approaches to the Iranian government. In other words, he will blame others but take no definitive action.

Iran will then completely close the Straits, driving the price of oil to levels never seen before. Expect barrel prices in excess of $200 as the only oil available to the US will be from Mexico, Canada and Argentina. 1973 circa oil shortages and gas lines will make their return.

The crisis will end when the US demands the UN drop its sanctions against Iran. The "Apologist In Chief" will then congratulate himself on solving the problem.

OK, so its a nightmare!  Do you have any other ideas?  I would love to hear them. The following article tells us more about the current pre-crisis developments.

Conservative Tom

 

Iran warns 

US carrier:

 Don't come 

back to Gulf

By Nasser Karimi January 3, 2012 2:15 pm

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran's army chief on Tuesday warned an American aircraft carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf in Tehran's latest tough rhetoric over the strategic waterway, part of a feud with the United States over new sanctions that has sparked a jump in oil prices.

Gen. Ataollah Salehi spoke as a 10-day Iranian naval exercise ended near the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf. Iranian officials have said the drill aimed to show that Iran could close the vital oil passage, as it has threatened to do if the United States enacts strong new sanctions over Iran's nuclear program.

The strait, leading into the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, is the only possible route for tankers transporting crude from the oil-rich states of the Persian Gulf to markets. A sixth of the world's oil exports passes through it every day.

Oil prices rose to over $101 a barrel Tuesday amid concerns that rising tensions between Western powers and Iran could lead to crude supply disruptions. By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for February delivery was up $2.67 to $101.50 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The jump came a day after Iran test-fired a surface-to-surface cruise missile as part of the maneuvers, prompting Iran's navy chief to coast that the strait is "completely under our control."

Salehi's comments apparently referred to the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis, which along with another vessel exited the Gulf a week ago after a visit to Dubai's Jebel Ali port, according to the U.S. Navy's Bahrain-based 5th Fleet.

His warning that it not come back seemed aimed at further depicting the Hormuz Strait and the Gulf as under Iran's domination, though there was little way to enforce his warning without military action. The strait is divided between Iran and Oman's territorial waters, and international law requires them to allow free passage through it.

"We recommend to the American warship that passed through the Strait of Hormuz and went to Gulf of Oman not to return to the Persian Gulf," Salehi was quoted as saying by the state news agency IRNA.

He said Iran's enemies have understood the message of the naval exercises, saying, "We have no plan to begin any irrational act but we are ready against any threat."

In Washington, the Pentagon said its warships will continue to sail in the Gulf despite the warming. The U.S. Navy presence in the Gulf is in compliance with international law and aims to maintain a "constant state of high vigilance" to ensure the flow of sea commerce, Pentagon press secretary George Little said in a statement.

Iran's sabre-rattling over the strait and the Gulf has come in response to U.S. preparations to impose tough new sanctions that would ban dealings with Iran's Central Bank. That would deeply hurt Iran's oil exports since most countries and companies use the bank to conduct purchases of Iranian crude. Iran relies on oil revenues for around 80 percent of its budget, meaning a cut-off would be devastating to its already weakening economy.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Tuesday that is country wants Europe to agree on similar sanctions against Iran by Jan. 30 to show its determination to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. He told the French television station i>TELE that there is "no doubt" that Iran is continuing with plans to build a bomb.

Iran's naval maneuvers took place over a 1,250-mile (2,000-kilometer) stretch of water beyond the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, as well as parts of the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden, according to Iranian officials.

A leading Iranian lawmaker said Sunday the maneuvers served as practice for closing the strait if the West enacts sanctions blocking Iranian oil sales. Top Iranian officials made the same threat last week