We have been following the Egyptian "elections" and their outcome. We have not written about it because things were up in the air and only today was the election certified with the Brotherhood Presidential candidate being the winner. If you have been followers of this blog you know that we have not been believers that the Muslim Brotherhood and their more religious allies would be friendly to the West or Israel. Now that they have won the elections and the military has had a "soft" coup, the situation is as unsettled as it was before the voting.
Will the army allow reforms? Probably not. They already have already shown that they are not democratically inclined, however, neither would the Brotherhood. With the writing of a new Constitution, minimizing the powers of the President and the suspension of the legislature, it appears as if the military is firmly in charge regardless of the protests that are occurring and surely will continue to occur.
How long will they be in charge and how will its control effect the relationships with the West and Israel? Our belief is that the military will remain firmly in control. They might allow some minor democratic accommodations and probably will give the newly elected Muslim Brotherhood President some "ceremonial" powers. However, we do not see them relinquishing power.
As far as relationships with the West and Israel, we believe they will be about the same as they were with Mubarak in charge. To give up the military and financial support that Egypt receives would be harmful for the country's economy and would not be in its best interests, therefore, we doubt that the military will want to do anything that would poison the well. Additionally, we believe that the current military is comfortable with its relationship with the West and Israel. However, time will tell and the controlling Generals could break with tradition and then, who knows what will happen.
This situation will obviously change on a day to day basis. Should major protests re-erupt and hundreds are killed or hurt or the Muslim Brotherhood asks the UN to come in and install the elected President, we could see major changes which we believe will be very anti-Western and negative to Israel. We will have to wait and see.
Conservative Tom
Will the army allow reforms? Probably not. They already have already shown that they are not democratically inclined, however, neither would the Brotherhood. With the writing of a new Constitution, minimizing the powers of the President and the suspension of the legislature, it appears as if the military is firmly in charge regardless of the protests that are occurring and surely will continue to occur.
How long will they be in charge and how will its control effect the relationships with the West and Israel? Our belief is that the military will remain firmly in control. They might allow some minor democratic accommodations and probably will give the newly elected Muslim Brotherhood President some "ceremonial" powers. However, we do not see them relinquishing power.
As far as relationships with the West and Israel, we believe they will be about the same as they were with Mubarak in charge. To give up the military and financial support that Egypt receives would be harmful for the country's economy and would not be in its best interests, therefore, we doubt that the military will want to do anything that would poison the well. Additionally, we believe that the current military is comfortable with its relationship with the West and Israel. However, time will tell and the controlling Generals could break with tradition and then, who knows what will happen.
This situation will obviously change on a day to day basis. Should major protests re-erupt and hundreds are killed or hurt or the Muslim Brotherhood asks the UN to come in and install the elected President, we could see major changes which we believe will be very anti-Western and negative to Israel. We will have to wait and see.
Conservative Tom
I just watched an interview with Morsi on CNN. He said that women will have full and equal rights to men under the new constitution. If Sharia law is not enshrined in their constitution, that will pretty much settle the question about who is (still) in power there.
ReplyDelete-- David
All radical Muslims say that when they come to power. David, you need to read about the Iranian revolution in the seventies. That is what Khomeni said even though women under the Shah went to college, drove cars, and wore western wear, all things that they cannot do now in Iran.
ReplyDeleteIf you also know anything about Islam, it is perfectly honorable to lie and deceive non-believers. Morsi is a Muslim, so I don't believe a word that he says.
Tom, you missed my point. Let me put it differently. If Sharia law is not enshrined in the new constitution, that tells us that radical Islamists are not writing the new constitution.
ReplyDelete--David
Ok, we will see, but when push comes to shove, I doubt it will occur. the Muslim Brotherhood is a
ReplyDeleteIslamic organization which believes strongly that Egypt should be an Islamic state. When they and their allies have a majority in their government, I doubt very much that Sharia Law will not be a part of the Constitution.