Results: 315 For Romney-Could We Be So Lucky?

Michael Barone predict a major  blowout! Could we be so lucky? If you listened to the "experts" this morning on the Sunday talk shows, you would think that Barone was smoking some funny cigarettes.

We think it will be closer than 315 for Romney which will result in hundreds if not thousands of lawsuits against precincts, cities and states. It could push off the results for weeks or even months. Could we see the inauguration put off until after litigation efforts end?

Conservative Tom

Barone Predicts Blowout… 315 Electoral Votes For Mitt Romney

On November 4, 2012, in 2012 Roadmap, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, by Eric Odom

In case you missed it… Michael Barone is predicting a massive landslide victory for Romney. Normally I wouldn’t post a prediction such as this, but Barone is no dummy. He’s got a great grasp on the data and his view on this race a few days out is stunning.
His reasoning on the matter is quite sound.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.
That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.
That’s been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

I can see PA ending with a big surprise Romney win. I would say Obama has a better shot there, but anything is possible. The big surprise for me is Barone’s take that Nevada would go Obama… even in this environment.

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Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas’ Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions’ turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they’ll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.

Here’s the thing. Las Vegas outright rejected Sharon Angle in 2010. In fact, Angle couldn’t even win her own home county of Washoe, which is traditionally a very conservative/Republican county. The 2010 race in Nevada was less an acceptance of Harry Reid as it was a rejection of Angle. Additionally, Dean Heller is set to win a big Senate battle and Angle didn’t have another epic race on the ticket alongside to help.
I think if Barone’s prediction of 315 electoral votes for Romney comes true, it will likely be 321 with Nevada’s 6.