When (not if) we go over the cliff, our superpower status will be decimated! This has been the aim of the Obama Administration ever since he promised he would "change" America. Goal number one will be accomplished!
Report: U.S. Will Lose Superpower Status By 2030
December 11, 2012 by Sam Rolley
PHOTOS.COM
By the year 2030, the United States will no longer be considered a world superpower, but it isn’t expected to be replaced by another nation gaining superpower status, according to a National Intelligence Council report.
Power will shift, rather, to “networks and coalitions in a multipolar world,” according to the “Global Trends 2030” report.
The world of 2030 will be radically different from the world today in terms of power structure. By 2030, no country will be a hegemonic power.
The new divisions of power, according to the report, will lead to a reversal in the historic rise in Western power since 1750. This will be integral in “restoring Asia’s weight in the global economy and ushering in a new era of ‘democratization’ at the international and domestic level.”
The report says:
The diffusion of power among countries will have a dramatic impact by 2030. Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon GDP, population size, military spending, and technological investment. China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030. In a tectonic shift, the health of the global economy increasingly will be linked to how well the developing world does—more so than the traditional West. In addition to China, India, and Brazil, regional players such as Colombia, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, and Turkey will become especially important to the global economy.
The report says that a best case scenario as global power shifts would be the United States and China becoming strong economic allies who collaborate on a range of issues. Less desirable outcomes, according to the report, would be that global shifts in power lead to conflict as nations seek to gather more resources.
So which of their 4 "alternative worlds" do you think is most likely to emerge by year 2030?
ReplyDelete--David
The US is on decline, I do not think there is any discussion of that. Will we ever recover? Doubtful unless a new governing class comes in that will make the necessary changes to streamline the government.
ReplyDeleteChina due to its population and its voracious appetite for natural resources has to be the major power in the next 30 years. I would not be surprised for its economy to dwarf ours in a matter of years--10-15.
You also have to look at India as secondary country. Its people resources makes it strong.
I disagree that Turkey will become a power in that their move toward more traditional Islam, is going to harm their growth.
The authors are saying the BRIC countries are the ones that are the comers, which has been true for about ten years. I do not see Russia but time will tell. Their problem is the Russian Mafia controls that country and the lack of freedom will hurt them.
Their graph "Comparison of Global GDP Composition in our 2030 Scenarios" (page 109) is very interesting. It shows how each country fares economically under each of their four scenarios.
ReplyDeleteThe U.S. beats China by the widest margin under their "Gini-Out-of-Bottle" scenario, and (I believe) that is precisely why the world in already on that track rather than any of the others. You can see it clearly in the remarkable disjunction between U.S. corporations hitting record profits in the last quarter, despite our weak GDP growth. Never underestimate the economic power of Wall Street -- not just in our country, but around the world!!
I take it that you, Mr. Pessimist, subscribe to their "Stalled Engines" model. Right?
--David