Friday, May 31, 2013

Assad Still An Enemy of Israel Regardless Of Who Wins Civil War

Regardless of who wins the civil war in Syria, it is clear that the country will be an enemy of Israel. We know from the following AP article that Assad will not be a friend. If the rebels win, who knows who will be in command and what their attitudes will be but we suspect it will not be a positive for the Jewish nation.


Conservative Tom


Assad Vows to Attack Israel

Thursday, 30 May 2013 07:24 PM

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Syrian President Bashar Assad said in an interview broadcast Thursday that he is "confident in victory" in his country's civil war, and he warned that Damascus would retaliate for any future Israeli airstrike on his territory.

Assad also told the Lebanese TV station Al-Manar that Russia has fulfilled some of its weapons contracts recently, but he was vague on whether this included advanced S-300 air defense systems.



The comments were in line with a forceful and confident message the regime has been sending in recent days, even as the international community attempts to launch a peace conference in Geneva, possibly next month. The strong tone coincided with recent military victories in battles with armed rebels trying to topple him.

The interview was broadcast as Syria's main political opposition group appeared to fall into growing disarray.

The international community had hoped the two sides would start talks on a political transition. However, the opposition group, the Syrian National Coalition, said earlier Thursday that it would not attend a conference, linking the decision to a regime offensive on the western Syrian town of Qusair and claiming that hundreds of wounded people were trapped there.

Assad, who appeared animated and gestured frequently in the TV interview, said he has been confident from the start of the conflict more than two years ago that he would be able to defeat his opponents.

"Regarding my confidence about victory, had we not had this confidence, we wouldn't have been able to fight in this battle for two years, facing an international attack," he said. Assad portrayed the battle to unseat him as a "world war against Syria and the resistance" — a reference to the Lebanese Hezbollah, a close ally.

"We are confident and sure about victory, and I confirm that Syria will stay as it was," he said, "but even more than before, in supporting resistance fighters in all the Arab world."

Assad has said he would stay in power at least until elections scheduled in 2014, but he went further in the interview, saying he "will not hesitate to run again" if the Syrian people want him to do so.

Taking a tough line, he also warned that Syria would strike back hard against any future Israeli airstrike.

Earlier this month, Israel had struck near Damascus, targeting suspected shipments of advanced weapons purportedly intended for Hezbollah. Syria did not respond at the time.

Assad said he has informed other countries that Syria would respond next time. "If we are going to retaliate against Israel, this retaliation should be a strategic response," he said.

Russia's S-300 missiles would significantly boost Syria's air defenses and are seen as a game-changer, but Assad was unclear whether Syria has received a first shipment.

Earlier Thursday, Al-Manar had sent text messages to reporters with what it said was an excerpt from the interview.

The station quoted Assad as saying Syria had received a first shipment of such missiles. The Associated Press called Al-Manar after receiving the text message, and an official at the station said the message had been sent based on Assad's comments.

In the interview, Assad was asked about the S-300s, but his answer was general.

He said Russia's weapons shipments are not linked to the Syrian conflict. "We have been negotiating with them about different types of weapons for years, and Russia is committed to Syria to implement these contracts," he said.

"All we have agreed on with Russia will be implemented and some of it has been implemented recently, and we and the Russians continue to implement these contracts," he said.

Earlier this week, Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said Israel considered the S-300s in Syrian hands a threat and signaled it was prepared to use force to stop delivery. Israel had no comment Thursday.

The S-300s have a range of up to 200 kilometers (125 miles) and can track and strike multiple targets at once. Syria already possesses Russian-made air defenses.

The U.S. and Israel had urged Russia to cancel the sale, but Russia rejected the appeals.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov this week that the U.S. is concerned about Moscow's continued financial and military support for the Assad regime, said State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

Meanwhile, Assad dismissed Syria's political opposition as foreign-directed exiles who don't represent the people of Syria.

The Syrian National Coalition has been meeting for more than a week in Istanbul to expand its membership, elect new leaders and devise a strategy for possible peace talks.

Coalition members got bogged down in personnel issues for much of the time. On Thursday, they announced that under current circumstances, they will not attend peace talks.

In the interview, Assad reiterated that the Syrian government is ready to attend in principle, though he said any agreement reached there would have to be put to a referendum.

"We will go to this conference as the legitimate representatives of the Syrian people. Whom do they represent?" he said of the opposition.

"We know that we are going to negotiate with the countries that stand behind it (the opposition) and not to negotiate with them. When we speak with the slave, we are indirectly negotiating with the master," he added.

The coalition's decision not to attend the talks could torpedo the only peace plan the international community has been able to rally behind, although prospects for its success appeared doubtful from the start.

Psaki, the State Department spokeswoman, said she hoped it was not the coalition's final word on the Geneva conference. She said Robert Ford, the U.S. ambassador to Syria, is in Istanbul trying to help the opposition sort through its internal problems. Once members have decided on issues such as expanded membership and leadership, the U.S. hopes they will recommit to peace talks, Psaki said.

Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, accused the coalition of trying to set preconditions, by demanding that Assad's departure from office must be the focus of any peace talks. He called such a demand "unrealistic."

He urged the U.S. and Europe to "restrain those who are encouraging such unacceptable and aggressive approaches on the part of the National Coalition."

If the diplomatic option is now off the table, following the opposition's decision, the West, including the U.S., will have to come up with a new approach. President Barack Obama could face renewed pressure to help the rebels militarily.

The opposition linked its decision to stay away from the conference to an ongoing battle for the strategic town of Qusair and the role of Hezbollah in helping Assad.

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Iranian-backed Hezbollah is heavily involved in the 12-day-old push to drive rebels from the town. Coalition officials said Thursday that hundreds of peopled wounded in the fighting were trapped in the town.

"The talk about the international conference and a political solution to the situation in Syria has no meaning in light of the massacres that are taking place," coalition spokesman Khalid Saleh told reporters. He said the group will not support any international peace efforts in light of the "invasion" of Syria by Iran and Hezbollah.

Both sides value Qusair, which lies along a land corridor linking two of Assad's strongholds — Damascus and an area along the Mediterranean coast. For the rebels, holding the town means protecting their supply line to Lebanon, just 10 kilometers (6 miles) away.

More than 70,000 people have been killed in the 26-month-old Syrian conflict that has had increasingly sectarian overtones. Members of Syria's Sunni Muslim majority dominate the rebel ranks and Assad's regime is mostly made up of Alawites, an offshoot sect of Shiite Islam.
© Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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12 comments:

  1. My question is whether the Syrians now have enough of those Russian advanced missiles to take out Israeli warplanes. If so, that could change the military equation. If Assad gets them, then eventually Hezbollah will also have them. Putin is an old Soviet KGB agent, and he still thinks like one. Many people laughed when Mitt Romney warned about Russian military threats, but he may be proved prescient on that one. Syria is turning into a civil war with a proxy war overlaid.

    --David

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  2. This was the reason that Israel struck and took out the Russian missiles approximately one month ago.

    Syria is becoming a real mess and there will be no winner. If Assad wins, he will go after those who attacked him with vengeance not seen since Cambodia. If the rebels win the same thing will happen to the supporters of Assad.

    Putin is not someone who you can "do business." As you say, he is "old russia" dressed up in a $2500 suit. Same guy, different clothes.

    ReplyDelete
  3. No, Israel bombed Iranian missiles sent to Syria. The Russian missiles have not been shipped yet. They have a signed contract with Syria to supply $1 billion worth of their sophisticated S-300 missiles, but the shipping date is unclear…

    http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/kerry-russia-s-plans-to-send-s-300-missiles-to-syria-s-assad-put-israel-at-risk-1.527092

    This a real dilemma for the U.S. We can't supply weapons to al-Qaeda, as McCain may suggest. Nor can we go to war with Russia over this. Hope Assad is overthrown before the Russian missiles arrive and that the new government is not al-Qaeda affiliated. That is a lot to hope for!

    --David

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  4. There is going to be a bloodbath in Qusair soon. Are we going to have war between Sunnis and Shia that sucks in every country in the region? It seems to be going that direction...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22741588

    The body count in Iraq was over 1,000 for the month of May. That is the highest number in 5 years. Sunni and Shia are also fighting in Lebanon now, and both groups are sending fighters to Qusair in the battle to determine whether Assad or the "rebels" will be able to hold the city.

    --David

    ReplyDelete
  5. "Although Allen and others in the Pentagon had advocated a residual U.S. force of up to about 20,000 troops — a cause subsequently picked up by some lawmakers — many in the White House have said the number of U.S. troops should be smaller."

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-report-gen-john-allen-outlines-something-that-could-still-resemble-victory-in-afghanistan/2013/05/31/bb0274c6-c963-11e2-8da7-d274bc611a47_story.html

    There is no reason to leave ANY Americans in Afghanistan. It is a lost cause. I will be surprised if Obama doesn't leave at least 5,000-10,000 over there. He would have done the same in Iraq if the Iraqis hadn't kicked us out of the country per the SOFA. They would be getting killed right now in the cross-fire between the Sunni and Shia. This is why you should never vote for an interventionist as president.

    --David

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  6. "Austrian troops make up about a third of the 1,000 strong UN force monitoring the demilitarised zone and Qusair, which is the only open crossing between Syria and the Israeli-controlled area of the Golan Heights.
    Israeli fears

    Syria's deployment of tanks in the demilitarised zone violates ceasefire agreements in place since the Arab-Israeli war of 1973, but sources have told the BBC that Israel will not react.

    Israel captured part of the plateau in 1967 and later annexed it in a move that has never been internationally recognised

    Israeli officials have voiced fears the civil war in Syria could spill over their borders. They are worried the Golan Heights could be used to launch attacks against Israel - either by Islamist extremists fighting for the rebels, or by Hezbollah militants fighting on the government side.

    Hezbollah's growing role in the conflict was highlighted by its involvement in the battle for Qusair, which government forces recaptured on Wednesday after a bitter siege."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22795655

    --David

    ReplyDelete
  7. Mexico lost to the US in the Mexican - American war and lost the South west. Should we give back California, New Mexico , Arizona, Texas and other parts of the country because it was not universally recognized by the world?

    The Golan Heights are a pivotal Israeli defense position which Syria lost in the 1973 war. When you lose a war you lose territory, that has been the rule since there have been wars. Just look at western Germany, that area has been German and French depending upon who lost the last war!

    The war in Syria (regardless of who wins) is going to spill over to Lebanon and Jordan. Once those two countries fall to the Al Queda/Hezbollah winner, Israel will once again face extinction by hundreds of millions of Arabs/Islamists against 6 million. Not a fair fight at all!

    ReplyDelete
  8. If this war continues to spread into the Golan Heights, that area will end up controlled by Syria. Israel seems willing to stay out of it. If Syria then gets those Russian missiles, that would seriously shift the military balance. Isreal would no longer just worrying about a fight against Palestinian rocks and mortars. At this point, it appears that Assad is winning the war, and the body count is up to 80,000.

    --David

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  9. Apparently David, you have never been to Israel or studied military tactics, The Golan is such a pivotal military point that Israel will NEVER let it go. It overlooks at least one third of Israel making a significant part of the country easily attackable.
    They would be insane for them to subject their citizens to potential attack from Syria or whoever controls the Golan.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hey, I am just reporting on what is happening over there right now…

    "A United Nations mission that has patrolled a zone of separation between Israel and Syria for four decades is at risk of becoming the latest casualty in the grinding bloodbath between Syrian President Bashar Assad's military and the rebels fighting to oust him.

    Fighting between Syrian government troops and opposition forces spread into the U.N.-monitored Golan Heights in recent days, with both sides claiming Thursday to have captured a rarely used border checkpoint at Quneitra, Syria’s sole crossing into the Israeli-held territory.

    The running battle injured two U.N. peacekeepers from the Philippines and prompted Austria, the biggest troop-contributor to the 900-strong U.N. Disengagement Observer Force, to announce that it is pulling out all 380 of its soldiers."

    http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-syria-golan-un-mission-20130606,0,6454723.story

    --David

    ReplyDelete
  11. Interesting that Russian Islamists are joining with al-Qaeda in Syria…

    "Syria has become a prime front for al Qaeda. The Al Nusrah Front was estimated by the US government to have had more than 10,000 fighters at the end of last year; this number doesn't include the more than 3,000 Free Syrian Army fighters who have defected to the Al Nusrah Front as of the beginning of May. And it doesn't include the Muhajireen Army, which is led by a Chechen commander and is closely allied to the Al Nusrah Front."

    http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2013/06/al_nusrah_front_raises_al_qaed.php

    --David

    ReplyDelete
  12. "Assad’s allies - Russia, Iran and Hezbollah - have provided a steady stream of arms,ammunition and the trained military manpower his fighters need to beat back opposition forces. Hezbollah is providing troops, Iran is sending in military advisors and funding the war, while Russia is delivering advanced military weapons to Assad’s forces."

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/06/07/assad-recent-military-advances-could-mean-long-term-trouble-for-us-and-allies/

    --David

    ReplyDelete

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