Syria Could Bring On Next Recession--Does Obama Care?

What would you do if gas prices went up by 50%? How would that effect the economy? Could it wreck the very weak recovery? These all are considerations that should be considered before Obama pulls the pins from the cruise missiles and drones that he is likely to use in Syria.

The real question is...will he?  Is he concerned with the price of oil or only his legacy? Will a shut down of the Suez or Straits of Hormuz effect his calculus or is his ego more important?

We all know that Obama has a strong ego and the people around him  constantly pump air into his already overfilled balloon. (He has no one around him that will give him contrary views. They all have left.)  Would he love to make Putin stand down over Syria, we think so. The same goes for the Chinese.  Is he willing to risk a major regional conflict or larger to prove his manhood? It is starting to appear this way.

When the British decided they would not participate and Obama said he would "go it alone" that should have scared us all. He is willing to risk all to prove that he is a leader. The trouble is that he is a leader of one--himself. (It doesn't appear that he even has any input in his own household.)  He will do anything in his power to prove that he is "strong." It is like the short man complex needing to prove they can stand up to anyone.

If we are correct, there is no information, no data or proof that will dissuade him from his "mission."  We are going to take action against Syria and it will all be to prove that Obama is a man. He won't care what it does to the economy, the debt, the civilians who might get hurt in Syria or the Americans who get killed as long as he can stand up to Putin and the Chinese. That all that matters.

If that does not scare you, nothing will!

Conservative Tom

SocGen: Oil Could Hit $150 if Syrian War Spreads

Wednesday, 28 Aug 2013 02:33 PM

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Brent crude oil is likely to rise towards $125 a barrel if the West launches air strikes against Syria and could go even higher if the conflict spills over into the rest of the Middle East, Societe Generale said on Wednesday.

Michael Wittner, oil analyst at the French bank, said the North Sea crude oil benchmark could surge as high as $150 per barrel if the war affects key oil producers such as Iraq, although any jump in prices would probably be brief.

"We believe that in the coming days, Brent could gain another $5-10, surging to $120-$125, either in anticipation of the attack or in reaction to the headlines that an attack had started," Wittner said in a note to clients.



"If the regional spill-over results in a significant supply disruption in Iraq or elsewhere, Brent could spike briefly to $150," he added.

"In our base case, we assume an attack begins in the next week. If it takes longer, and there are no signals that an attack is imminent, the oil price uplift from the entire Syrian situation will start to fade."

Brent crude oil futures for October hit a six-month high of $117.34 on Wednesday on fears that a regional conflict could affect supplies at a time of restricted output from other oil producers in the Middle East and North Africa.

Wittner said if oil supplies were curtailed by a military conflict the oil market would rely on extra output from Saudi Arabia, the only member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with sufficient spare oil production capacity.

"The Saudis could handle most likely scenarios, but the markets will look at the shrinking spare capacity that remains after any disruption is made up, and that would be bullish."

Wittner said oil consumer countries might consider releasing part of their considerable strategic oil reserves if oil prices rose too high or supply shortages became acute.

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