Our, not so humble opinion, is that the economy is ready for another decline. As the following article clearly illustrates, the needed jobs have not come to fruition, unemployment stays at nearly double full employment and the jobs that seem to be added are low pay part-time jobs. All of this is backed up by the fact that temp agencies are now one of the largest employers in the country. This is not your father's recovery.
When you look at previous recoveries, there was the decline followed by a steep recovery that peaked out before the next decline. The problem this time is that there has not been the jump back to normal levels. We are still way below the trends that we should be seeing. So, when the next decline does come, we don't have the jobs or economic power to accept the fall. We fear it will cause a major recession, if not a full, depression.
We are not trying to scare anyone, just alerting you to the possibility and suggesting that you prepare for it. Of course, if you disagree, please give me your response.
Conservative Tom
ShadowStat's John Williams: 'Seriously Deteriorating Unemployment Trends Have Solidified'
Monday, 09 Sep 2013 08:53 AM
"Given recognized margins of error, ... neither [of those statistics] was meaningful by itself," he writes. "Yet, seriously deteriorating unemployment trends have solidified."
The drop in the unemployment rate didn't result from strong hiring, Williams notes. Rather it stems from job seekers giving up and leaving the work force.
"The broad economic outlook has not changed, although the economic downside may be picking up a little more credibility with consensus forecasters," he states.
The labor force participation rate slumped to a 35-year low of 63.2 percent last month.
"The nature of reported declines in the headline unemployment rate is symptomatic of an imploding economy," Williams proclaims.
As for payrolls, they are still 1.9 million jobs shy of the pre-recession high, he explains. And payroll gains were revised downward for June and July. "Net of prior-period revisions, the monthly [August] gain would have been 95,000," Williams claims.
"The story from the August labor data is that the economy has not recovered, that it is not about to recover and that it is turning down anew."
Another economist left unimpressed by the employment data is Peter Morici, professor of international business at the University of Maryland.
The 169,000 payroll gain is "about half of what we would need under normal circumstances, and we're not even normal in circumstances," he tells Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview.
"A good deal of those jobs, about three-fourths, were part-time positions. Essentially employers are dividing up full-time jobs and creating multiple part-time jobs."
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