Is Mississippi An Indicator Of How It Will Go In November? Or Will It Predict The Losses We Fear Are Coming To Republicans?

Lessons From Alabama: How Mississippi And Establishment Republicans May Have Pooped Their Nest

July 2, 2014 by Bob Livingston

 16 10

 0 79

THINKSTOCK

Up until the mid-1980s, Alabama was a one-party State, and that party was the Democratic Party. While there were a few Republican legislators, no Republicans held State office, nor did any have a chance of holding State office. That all changed in 1986.

That year, the race for Governor was down to two men to succeed the retiring George Wallace. The Democratic primary pitted Lieutenant Governor Bill Baxley — whose support came primarily from blacks, labor unions and State employees (i.e., the establishment) — against Attorney General Charles Graddick — a former Republican whose support came primarily from white conservatives. The winner of the primary would have a cakewalk to the Governor’s mansion against only token Republican opposition. (For comparison, 970,000 votes were cast in the Democratic primary election for Governor. Only 30,000 voted in the Republican primary.)

During the run-up to the runoff election, Graddick courted Republican voters, encouraging them to “cross over” and vote for him. Voters did; and by a narrow margin, Graddick won.

That didn’t sit well with Baxley or the State Democratic machine. Baxley sued. The Democratic Party went through the voter rolls and determined that thousands of people who had voted in the Republican primary had crossed over and voted in the Democratic runoff. Those votes were thrown out and Baxley was handed the nomination.

State and Federal courts exploded with lawsuits over the matter. When the dust cleared, the courts sided with Baxley. But the brouhaha destroyed the Democratic Party. Baxley ran on the Democratic ticket. Graddick entered as a write-in. Neither would win.

Instead, Republican Guy Hunt — an egg farmer, Amway distributor, Baptist minister and former rural probate judge with just a high school education — won the election. And he did so with little help from what State Republican apparatus there was. Republicans thought Hunt such a long shot they devoted their energies and money to — unsuccessfully — helping Senator Jeremiah Denton’s re-election campaign.

An Oct. 25, 1986 article in The New York Times reflected the mood of Alabama voters:

“I voted Democratic in the June primary, but after all the mud-slinging by the Democrats I’m with Mr. Hunt now,” said Charlotte Walker of nearby Tuscaloosa, who, with her husband, Johnny, shook Mr. Hunt’s hand and promised to do what they could for him before the election Nov. 4.

“What the Democrats have done has been horrible — an embarrassment to Alabama,” Mrs. Walker said.

Since then, only one Democrat — Don Siegelman — has been elected Governor, and he was defeated in his bid for a second term in a Democratic primary election that occurred while he was on trial for bribery and mail fraud.

Now, not a single Democrat holds State office in Alabama. And in 2010, both Houses of the Alabama legislature fell into Republican hands for the first time.

Now to Mississippi. In order to secure his re-election and help him stave off Tea Party-backed challenger Chris McDaniel, Republican Senator Thad Cochran and the GOP establishment solicited Democrat crossover votes. The ploy worked… at least in the short term.

McDaniel may challenge the results. His supporters hint there are thousands of examples of “voting irregularities.” But whether he does or not, the fight has already divided Mississippi Republicans. McDaniel supporters are likely to be loath to vote for Cochran, especially given that a Cochran radio ad accused McDaniel supporters of racism and of trying to stop blacks from voting.

If McDaniel voters stay home (and who could blame them?), can Cochran hold off Democrat Travis Childers? And it appears some McDaniel voters won’t just stay home: They may cross over themselves and vote for Childers, according to The Times:

Some of the national Tea Party groups that poured money into Mr. McDaniel’s campaign were so angry that they were considering drastic options to keep their candidate afloat politically.

According to one person involved in the discussions among the leaders of these groups, the possibilities include trying to build support for a third-party run by Mr. McDaniel — a move that would almost certainly draw Republican votes away from Mr. Cochran and help his Democratic challenger, Travis Childers.

In addition, some Tea Party leaders were discussing throwing their weight behind Mr. Childers. Though he is a Democrat, some of his views — he is anti-abortion and opposes the Affordable Care Act — are attractive to conservatives. “The Tea Party is so burned they may do something radical,” a conservative leader involved in the planning said, asking not to be named in order to discuss internal deliberations.

Some Tea Party supporters were pushing for Mr. McDaniel to wage a write-in campaign in the general election.

So the question becomes: In order to keep an establishment Republican — a senile old coot who admits to having done questionable things to farm animals — in office and thwart a conservative challenge, has the establishment of the GOP pooped in their nest as the Alabama Democrats did 28 years ago?