Economist Poll: Trump Leads GOP Presidential Field

(Andrew H. Walker/Getty Images)

By Courtney Coren | Thursday, 09 Jul 2015 05:37 PM

Billionaire Donald Trump is leading the Republican field in the latest national poll fromThe Economist/YouGov.

Trump is four points ahead of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who are tied for second place, in the poll taken July 4-6 of 1,000 registered voters.

Donald Trump: 15 percent
Jeb Bush: 11 percent
Rand Paul: 11 percent
Scott Walker: 9 percent
Marco Rubio: 9 percent
Mike Huckabee: 9 percent
Ben Carson: 7 percent
Chris Christie: 6 percent
Ted Cruz: 4 percent
Carly Fiorina: 3 percent
Rick Perry: 2 percent
Rick Santorum: 2 percent
John Kasich: 2 percent
Lindsey Graham: 1 percent
George Pataki: 0 percent

In addition, 12 percent of registered voters said that Trump is their second-choice pick. When the two numbers are combined, that means one-in-four Republican voters see the real estate mogul as either their first or second choice.

Two-thirds of those who said Trump was either their first or second choice also said that they are tea party supporters, and several of his supporters identified as "very conservative," which means that Trump's recent comments on immigration may be hitting a nerve.

Trump's favorable rating has also increased in recent weeks. In mid-June, 38 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of the reality TV star. That number has since jumped 11 percentage points, with 49 percent of GOP voters now saying they view him favorably.

However, Republicans don't think Trump will actually win the nomination.

Only 7 percent of registered Republican voters think Trump will be the GOP's presidential nominee in 2016. Twenty-nine percent said it will be Bush, 12 percent expect Paul to win the nomination, and Rubio and Walker are tied with 8 percentage points.