Rubio Winning Political Prediction Market, Cruz High in Iowa
Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 09:06 PM
Donald Trump may be the front-runner in the polls, but he's nowhere near the top in CNN's political prediction market.
Unlike polls, prediction markets don't ask people who they plan to vote for, but who they think has the best odds of winning. Many people tout prediction markets as far more accurate than polls, because the users have skin in the game.
Here's how that market currently stands for the GOP presidential nomination:
• Marco Rubio: 49 percent
• Donald Trump: 20 percent
• Ted Cruz: 19 percent
• Jeb Bush: 5 percent
• Ben Carson: 2 percent
• Rand Paul, Mitt Romney, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, all at 1 percent
Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee, has repeatedly said he won't run. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal already has dropped out.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, third for the nomination, looks even better in Iowa, though, where the prediction market lists him as the front-runner:
• Cruz: 37 percent
• Trump: 25 percent
• Rubio: 25 percent
• Carson: 7 percent
• All others, 1 percent or less.
CNN uses Pivit as its prediction market partner. Though Pivit users do not place money on their predictions, they do risk losing the "prestige" of being right.
Unlike polls, prediction markets don't ask people who they plan to vote for, but who they think has the best odds of winning. Many people tout prediction markets as far more accurate than polls, because the users have skin in the game.
• Marco Rubio: 49 percent
• Donald Trump: 20 percent
• Ted Cruz: 19 percent
• Jeb Bush: 5 percent
• Ben Carson: 2 percent
• Rand Paul, Mitt Romney, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, all at 1 percent
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Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, third for the nomination, looks even better in Iowa, though, where the prediction market lists him as the front-runner:
• Cruz: 37 percent
• Trump: 25 percent
• Rubio: 25 percent
• Carson: 7 percent
• All others, 1 percent or less.
CNN uses Pivit as its prediction market partner. Though Pivit users do not place money on their predictions, they do risk losing the "prestige" of being right.
Related Stories:
- Karl Rove: Cruz and Rubio Rising as Carson Crashes
- Economist Poll: Trump Beats Rubio, Cruz, Carson in Matchups
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