Trump's Tart Tongue Sours Poll Numbers
Saturday, 28 Nov 2015 09:07 AM
Donald Trump has seemed immune to national polling damage by his controversial comments on the campaign trail – until this week.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Friday shows Trump topped the GOP presidential primary field with 31 percent support in a rolling poll during a five-day period– down from 43 percent registered last Sunday.
It was the biggest drop in the real estate billionaire's standing since he ascended to the top of the field in July, Reuters reports.
Here's how the GOP field stacks up:
Trump isn't the only front-runner to slide in the latest survey: Carson, a retired pediatric neurosurgeon, has seen his poll numbers drift downward since late October, when he trailed Trump by 6 points.
But Trump's drop seems all the more stark in light of his poll resilience throughout his campaign despite a series of rude remarks.
In an analysis of polls of Republican voters after each verbal outburst, and of polls to see if more GOP voters were turning against him, Washington Post political writer Philip Bump finds Trump virtually untouched:
Using polling averages from Real Clear Politics, Bump analyzes controversial Trump comments that have hit the headlines, and finds they've barely registered in his polling dominance.
For example:
Bump notes the steady polling may be attributable to Trump's "core base of support, the people who polling has repeatedly shown are solidly for Trump come-what-may."
But, he argues, he's not turning off increasing numbers of voters either; there hasn't been any increase in the number of people who see him as a candidate they'd never support despite the instances of bad verbal behavior.
Comparing Quinnipiac University polls May 28, July 30, Aug. 27, Sept. 24 and Nov., 4, and its question to GOP voters if there was any candidates they'd refuse to support, the number – though high – "hasn't increased consistently at all."
In July, Trump was viewed favorably by 50 percent of Republican voters, versus 33 percent who viewed him unfavorably. In the November survey, his numbers were 63 and 30.
Reuters contributed to this report.
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A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Friday shows Trump topped the GOP presidential primary field with 31 percent support in a rolling poll during a five-day period– down from 43 percent registered last Sunday.
It was the biggest drop in the real estate billionaire's standing since he ascended to the top of the field in July, Reuters reports.
Here's how the GOP field stacks up:
- Donald Trump: 31 percent
- Ben Carson: 14.9 percent
- Marco Rubio: 8.4 percent
- Ted Cruz: 8.4 percent
- Jeb Bush: 6.5 percent
- Mike Huckabee: 4.8 percent
- John Kasich: 4.5 percent
- Chris Christie: 4.3 percent
- Jim Gilmore: 2.8 percent
- Rand Paul: 2.6 percent
- Carly Fiorina: 1.8 percent
- George Pataki: 1.7 percent
- Rick Santorum: 1.5 percent
- Lindsey Graham: 0.3 percent
- Wouldn't vote: 6.5 percent
But Trump's drop seems all the more stark in light of his poll resilience throughout his campaign despite a series of rude remarks.
In an analysis of polls of Republican voters after each verbal outburst, and of polls to see if more GOP voters were turning against him, Washington Post political writer Philip Bump finds Trump virtually untouched:
Using polling averages from Real Clear Politics, Bump analyzes controversial Trump comments that have hit the headlines, and finds they've barely registered in his polling dominance.
For example:
- Trump's remark about illegal immigrants being "rapists" in June didn't send the real estate billionaire's numbers into a dive.
- His dis of Arizona Sen. John McCain's war record in July didn't stunt his rising numbers.
- His rude August response to Fox News-hosted debate moderator Megyn Kelly saw his poll numbers level off – only to spring back up.
- A retweeted dig at Iowa voters in October was followed by a rise.
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But, he argues, he's not turning off increasing numbers of voters either; there hasn't been any increase in the number of people who see him as a candidate they'd never support despite the instances of bad verbal behavior.
Comparing Quinnipiac University polls May 28, July 30, Aug. 27, Sept. 24 and Nov., 4, and its question to GOP voters if there was any candidates they'd refuse to support, the number – though high – "hasn't increased consistently at all."
In July, Trump was viewed favorably by 50 percent of Republican voters, versus 33 percent who viewed him unfavorably. In the November survey, his numbers were 63 and 30.
Related Stories:
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