Friday, November 20, 2015

World Events Drive Political Fortunes

Carson Fades After Paris Bombing; Trump, Cruz Surge

Image: Carson Fades After Paris Bombing; Trump, Cruz Surge(Wire Services Photo) 
By Dick Morris   |   Thursday, 19 Nov 2015 03:52 PM
In the wake of the Islamic State (ISIS) Paris attacks, Donald Trump has moved to a clear lead over Ben Carson and the rest of the GOP field of presidential candidates.

Carson's laid-back style and his reluctance to use force against terrorism — he said that he would not have sent troops to Afghanistan after 9/11 — is costing him support in the post-Paris, post-debate polling.
In the six polls before the November 10th GOP debate and the Paris attacks on November 13th, Trump and Carson were tied at an average of 24 points each. In two poll since — by Bloomberg and PPP — Trump averages 25% while Carson fades to 20%.
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In the aftermath of the debate and the terror attacks, Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio have both gained with the Texan Cruz doubling his vote share from an average of only 6% beforehand to 12% afterwards. Floridian Rubio also rose, but only from 11% to 12.5%.

Jeb Bush continues to languish in the second tier. Before the debate/attacks, he registered 6% in national polls and he has stayed there after them.

The surveys confirm the view that the race has boiled down to the final four: Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz.
Dick Morris is a presidential political strategist, commentator and New York Times best-selling author. His latest book "Power Grab: Obama's Plan for a One Party Nation" is Available Here.

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