Democrats ‘freaked out’ about polls in meeting with Clinton
Moriah Ratner
By Alexander Bolton - 07/14/16 06:45 PM EDT
Nervous Senate Democrats raised concerns with Hillary Clinton during a private meeting in the Capitol Thursday over a recent poll showing Donald Trump leading or tied in key battleground states.
“Some people were freaked out, they were looking down at the polls on Real Clear Politics and asking why it was so close,” said a Democratic senator who attended the meeting, referring to a website lawmakers were checking out on their personal devices.
“She said there are other issues. People are unhappy and they don’t trust institutions,” the senator explained.
A second Democratic source in the meeting confirmed there was “a mention of the Florida poll.”
A Quinnipiac University poll released this week showed Trump up 42 percent to 39 percent in Florida, a crucial swing state. Clinton had an eight-point lead in Quinnipiac’s poll of the state last month.
The same survey showed Trump ahead two points in Pennsylvania, another big swing state, and tied in Ohio. The three states have been viewed as the keys to victory in the last four presidential elections.
The source emphasized that no one suggested that Clinton wasn’t running a strong race or questioned her performance.
Instead, it was an acknowledgement that the presidential race will be very close even though many Washington-based strategists and pundits on both sides of the ideological spectrum question Trump’s seriousness as a candidate.
“There was concern raised about the race because we know it’s going to be a close race,” said the source.
A senior Senate Democratic aide who was not in the meeting acknowledged that senators have raised concerns about the closeness of the polls at other times.
“We wouldn't be Democrats if there weren't a few bed-wetters,” the aide said.
But the aide said Democratic lawmakers have felt reassured that when the margin between Clinton and Trump narrows it’s because Clinton’s numbers dip, not because Trump’s climb.
Clinton suffered a public relations blow earlier this month when FBI Director James Comey issued a statement criticizing Clinton for being “extremely careless” in her handling of classified material on a private email server.
Senate Democrats are especially vested in the race because they’re resting their hopes on winning back the upper chamber on Clinton winning in November.
A study published last year by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics showed a high correlation between presidential and Senate results, historically. In 2012, the correlation was 0.78, compared to a perfect correlation of 1.
The sense of uneasiness among Senate Democrats is heightened by their observation that Trump has stayed within striking distance in pivotal states despite being vastly outspent.
NBC News reported this week that Clinton’s campaign and allied Super PACs have spent $57 million so far while Trump’s campaign hasn’t spent anything and two allied outside groups have spent only $3.6 million.
“Team Clinton” has outspent “Team Trump” in nine battleground states by a 40-1 ratio, NBC reported.
Nevertheless, Democratic senators praised the meeting as “good” and “productive.”
“It was very good. People were very excited to have her there,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.).
Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) said “there were questions that pertained to the campaign and strategy and things like that” but declined to talk about questions about Clinton’s polling status.
He added there’s broad recognition within the caucus that the race won’t be a cakewalk.
“It wasn’t just a meeting where everyone said everything is fine, don’t worry about it. We know this is going to be a tough election. We see it all around us and we have to be prepared for a close election,” he said.
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