Tuesday, July 19, 2016

NY Times Believes Hillary Will Win Presidency. Wasn't Brexit Supposed To Win By The Same Numbers?



Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.
Last updated Tuesday, July 19 at 8:15 AM ET

CHANCE OF WINNING


76%

Hillary Clinton


24%

Donald J. Trump
The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw.
From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:
JuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%Election DayTuesday, July 19Clinton76%Trump24%

State-by-State Probabilities

To forecast each party’s chance of winning the presidency, our model calculates win probabilities for each state. In addition to the latest state polls, our forecast incorporates a state’s past election results and national polling.
The table below shows our model’s estimate for Democrats and Republicans in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. We have put the states into five groups based on their voting history relative to the nation since 2004.
Our estimates in states that tend to vote ...

Much more Democratic

Dem.Rep.
D.C.
>99%
<1 div="">
Calif.
>99%
<1 div="">
Vt.
99%
1%
Md.
99%
1%
N.Y.
99%
1%
Mass.
98%
2%
Hawaii
95%
5%
R.I.
94%
6%

Somewhat more Democratic

Dem.Rep.
Wash.
95%
5%
N.J.
93%
7%
Ore.
90%
10%
Ill.
88%
12%
Conn.
87%
13%
Me.
86%
14%
Del.
85%
15%
Mich.
81%
19%
N.M.
79%
21%

Like the country as a whole

Dem.Rep.
Minn.
82%
18%
Colo.
82%
18%
Wis.
79%
21%
Va.
76%
24%
Pa.
72%
28%
Nev.
71%
29%
N.H.
70%
30%
Iowa
66%
34%
Ohio
64%
36%
Fla.
61%
39%

Somewhat more Republican

Dem.Rep.
N.C.
56%
44%
Ga.
38%
62%
Ariz.
26%
74%
Ind.
15%
85%
Mo.
14%
86%

Much more Republican

Dem.Rep.
S.C.
18%
82%
Miss.
16%
84%
Mont.
15%
85%
N.D.
14%
86%
Alaska
13%
87%
Tex.
12%
88%
La.
12%
88%
Kan.
8%
92%
Ark.
8%
92%
Idaho
7%
93%
Utah
7%
93%
Ky.
6%
94%
S.D.
5%
95%
Okla.
5%
95%
Tenn.
5%
95%
Ala.
4%
96%
Neb.
3%
97%
Wyo.
2%
98%
W.Va.
1%
99%

How Other Forecasts Compare

The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some, like FiveThirtyEight or thePrinceton Election Consortium, use statistical models, as The Times does; others, like the Cook Political Report, rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions. PredictWise uses information from betting markets.
We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for comparison. First, every organization’s estimate for who will win the presidency:
NYT538PWPECCookRoth.1Sabato
Win presidency
76% Dem.
64% Dem.
69% Dem.
82% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Tossup
Leaning Dem.
Note: The 538 model shown is its polls-only forecast. Qualitative ratings reflect the rating for the state in the middle of each organization’s forecast, weighted by electoral votes.
Second, each organization’s state-by-state ratings. Viewed together, the differences between the models become much clearer.
StateE.V.NYT538PWPECCookRoth.1Sabato
D.C.3
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
186 electoral votes
From 15 likely Democratic states
California55
>99% Dem.
97% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Vermont3
99% Dem.
91% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Maryland10
99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
New York29
99% Dem.
97% Dem.
99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Massachusetts11
98% Dem.
98% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Hawaii4
95% Dem.
99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Washington12
95% Dem.
86% Dem.
99% Dem.
94% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Rhode Island4
94% Dem.
91% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
New Jersey14
93% Dem.
85% Dem.
>99% Dem.
93% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Oregon7
90% Dem.
79% Dem.
99% Dem.
93% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Likely Dem.
Solid Dem.
Illinois20
88% Dem.
94% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Connecticut7
87% Dem.
80% Dem.
>99% Dem.
84% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Maine4
86% Dem.
73% Dem.
99% Dem.
82% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Delaware3
85% Dem.
89% Dem.
>99% Dem.
99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Minnesota10
82% Dem.
73% Dem.
93% Dem.
74% Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
203 electoral votes
From 17 competitive states
Colorado9
82% Dem.
69% Dem.
87% Dem.
85% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Tossup
Leaning Dem.
Michigan16
81% Dem.
78% Dem.
91% Dem.
74% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
New Mexico5
79% Dem.
78% Dem.
96% Dem.
85% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Likely Dem.
Solid Dem.
Wisconsin10
79% Dem.
76% Dem.
88% Dem.
74% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Tossup
Likely Dem.
Virginia13
76% Dem.
66% Dem.
82% Dem.
82% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Tossup
Leaning Dem.
Pennsylvania20
72% Dem.
65% Dem.
74% Dem.
70% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Nevada6
71% Dem.
58% Dem.
77% Dem.
55% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Likely Dem.
Leaning Dem.
New Hampshire4
70% Dem.
60% Dem.
82% Dem.
70% Dem.
Tossup
Tossup
Leaning Dem.
Iowa6
66% Dem.
55% Dem.
76% Dem.
53% Dem.
Tossup
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Ohio18
64% Dem.
55% Dem.
63% Dem.
50%
Tossup
Tossup
Leaning Dem.
Florida29
61% Dem.
56% Dem.
67% Dem.
55% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Tossup
Leaning Dem.
North Carolina15
56% Dem.
51% Rep.
54% Rep.
60% Dem.
Tossup
Tossup
Leaning Dem.
Georgia16
62% Rep.
73% Rep.
89% Rep.
70% Rep.
Leaning Rep.
Likely Rep.
Leaning Rep.
Arizona11
74% Rep.
63% Rep.
78% Rep.
70% Rep.
Leaning Rep.
Likely Rep.
Leaning Rep.
South Carolina9
82% Rep.
76% Rep.
98% Rep.
91% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Mississippi6
84% Rep.
82% Rep.
>99% Rep.
65% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Montana3
85% Rep.
82% Rep.
93% Rep.
97% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
149 electoral votes
From 19 likely Republican states
Indiana11
85% Rep.
86% Rep.
94% Rep.
84% Rep.
Likely Rep.
Likely Rep.
Likely Rep.
Missouri10
86% Rep.
76% Rep.
86% Rep.
74% Rep.
Likely Rep.
Likely Rep.
Likely Rep.
North Dakota3
86% Rep.
81% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Alaska3
87% Rep.
80% Rep.
99% Rep.
97% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Texas38
88% Rep.
84% Rep.
98% Rep.
85% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Louisiana8
88% Rep.
94% Rep.
>99% Rep.
98% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Kansas6
92% Rep.
87% Rep.
>99% Rep.
91% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Arkansas6
92% Rep.
93% Rep.
>99% Rep.
93% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Idaho4
93% Rep.
98% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Utah6
93% Rep.
87% Rep.
96% Rep.
82% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Likely Rep.
Likely Rep.
Kentucky8
94% Rep.
86% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
South Dakota3
95% Rep.
80% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Oklahoma7
95% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Tennessee11
95% Rep.
91% Rep.
>99% Rep.
88% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Alabama9
96% Rep.
95% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Nebraska5
97% Rep.
92% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Wyoming3
98% Rep.
95% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
West Virginia5
99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
1 Rothenberg & Gonzales ratings are converted from a nine-category scale to a seven-category scale to make comparisons easier.
Solid
Dem.
Likely
Dem.
Leaning
Dem.
Tossup
Leaning
Rep.
Likely
Rep.
Solid
Rep.

Which Outcomes Are Most Likely

Some combinations of electoral votes are much more common than others. The chart below shows the estimated likelihood of each outcome.
0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%100200300400500Most likely outcomeMost likely outcome347 electoral votes270 electoral votes needed
Electoral votes for Hillary Clinton →

Donald Trump’s Difficult Path to the White House

The interactive diagram below illustrates Mr. Trump’s challenging path to the presidency. Here, we assume Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump will win the states where we believe they are most strongly favored, and we let you control the outcome of the 10 most competitive states. Above all, this diagram illustrates how important Florida is to Mr. Trump. It isextremely difficult for him to win without it.
Select a winner in the most competitive states below to see either candidate’s paths to victory.
61% Dem.
Fla.
72% Dem.
Pa.
64% Dem.
Ohio
62% Rep.
Ga.
56% Dem.
N.C.
76% Dem.
Va.
74% Rep.
Ariz.
66% Dem.
Iowa
71% Dem.
Nev.
70% Dem.
N.H.
Clinton has 945 ways to win
92% of paths

7 ties
0.68% of paths

Trump has 72 ways to win
7.0% of paths
DRFloridaDRPennsylvaniaDROhioDRGeorgiaDRNorth CarolinaDRVirginiaDRArizonaDRIowaDRNevadaDRNew HampshireIf Clinton wins Florida…If Trump wins Florida…With 10 states undecided:With these selections,

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