The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw.
From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:
State-by-State Probabilities
To forecast each party’s chance of winning the presidency, our model calculates win probabilities for each state. In addition to the latest state polls, our forecast incorporates a state’s past election results and national polling.
The table below shows our model’s estimate for Democrats and Republicans in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. We have put the states into five groups based on their voting history relative to the nation since 2004.
Our estimates in states that tend to vote ...
How Other Forecasts Compare
The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some, like FiveThirtyEight or thePrinceton Election Consortium, use statistical models, as The Times does; others, like the Cook Political Report, rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions. PredictWise uses information from betting markets.
We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for comparison. First, every organization’s estimate for who will win the presidency:
Second, each organization’s state-by-state ratings. Viewed together, the differences between the models become much clearer.
| State | E.V. |  NYT |  538 |  PW |  PEC |  Cook |  Roth.1 |  Sabato | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.C. | 3 | |||||||||
| California | 55 | |||||||||
| Vermont | 3 | |||||||||
| Maryland | 10 | |||||||||
| New York | 29 | |||||||||
| Massachusetts | 11 | |||||||||
| Hawaii | 4 | |||||||||
| Washington | 12 | |||||||||
| Rhode Island | 4 | |||||||||
| New Jersey | 14 | |||||||||
| Oregon | 7 | |||||||||
| Illinois | 20 | |||||||||
| Connecticut | 7 | |||||||||
| Maine | 4 | |||||||||
| Delaware | 3 | |||||||||
| Minnesota | 10 | |||||||||
| Colorado | 9 | |||||||||
| Michigan | 16 | |||||||||
| New Mexico | 5 | |||||||||
| Wisconsin | 10 | |||||||||
| Virginia | 13 | |||||||||
| Pennsylvania | 20 | |||||||||
| Nevada | 6 | |||||||||
| New Hampshire | 4 | |||||||||
| Iowa | 6 | |||||||||
| Ohio | 18 | |||||||||
| Florida | 29 | |||||||||
| North Carolina | 15 | |||||||||
| Georgia | 16 | |||||||||
| Arizona | 11 | |||||||||
| South Carolina | 9 | |||||||||
| Mississippi | 6 | |||||||||
| Montana | 3 | |||||||||
| Indiana | 11 | |||||||||
| Missouri | 10 | |||||||||
| North Dakota | 3 | |||||||||
| Alaska | 3 | |||||||||
| Texas | 38 | |||||||||
| Louisiana | 8 | |||||||||
| Kansas | 6 | |||||||||
| Arkansas | 6 | |||||||||
| Idaho | 4 | |||||||||
| Utah | 6 | |||||||||
| Kentucky | 8 | |||||||||
| South Dakota | 3 | |||||||||
| Oklahoma | 7 | |||||||||
| Tennessee | 11 | |||||||||
| Alabama | 9 | |||||||||
| Nebraska | 5 | |||||||||
| Wyoming | 3 | |||||||||
| West Virginia | 5 |
1 Rothenberg & Gonzales ratings are converted from a nine-category scale to a seven-category scale to make comparisons easier.
Which Outcomes Are Most Likely
Some combinations of electoral votes are much more common than others. The chart below shows the estimated likelihood of each outcome.
electoral votes270 electoral votes needed
Electoral votes for Hillary Clinton →
Donald Trump’s Difficult Path to the White House
The interactive diagram below illustrates Mr. Trump’s challenging path to the presidency. Here, we assume Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump will win the states where we believe they are most strongly favored, and we let you control the outcome of the 10 most competitive states. Above all, this diagram illustrates how important Florida is to Mr. Trump. It isextremely difficult for him to win without it.
Select a winner in the most competitive states below to see either candidate’s paths to victory.
61% Dem.
Fla.
72% Dem.
Pa.
64% Dem.
Ohio
62% Rep.
Ga.
56% Dem.
N.C.
76% Dem.
Va.
74% Rep.
Ariz.
66% Dem.
Iowa
71% Dem.
Nev.
70% Dem.
N.H.
Clinton has 945 ways to win
92% of paths
7 ties
0.68% of paths
Trump has 72 ways to win
7.0% of paths
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