Muslim Births Expected to Outpace Christian Births Within 20 Years
Pew Research study projects forward to 2060, when the Christian and Muslim populations will be nearly equal
A Pew Research study shows more babies will be born to Muslim women than to Christian women
world-wide within 20 years. PHOTO:MICHAEL ZAMORA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Within 20 years, more babies will be born to Muslim women than to Christian women
world-wide, the latest sign of the rapid growth that could make Islam the world’s
largest religion by the end of the century.
Islam is already the world’s fastest-growing religion, according to a new study released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, with the Muslim
population increasing by more than 150 million people between 2010 and 2015, to
1.8 billion.
Meanwhile, Christianity remains the world’s largest religion. It is growing more slowly,
however, largely due to its declining numbers in Europe, which was long the seat of
Christendom. As of 2015, there were 2.3 billion Christians.
While Christians accounted for 33% of births world-wide in recent years—slightly
outpacing the number of Muslim births—they also made up 37% of world-wide deaths,
nearly twice the share of deaths from any other religion.
“Christianity is literally dying in Europe,” said Conrad Hackett, the lead researcher on
the study.
In most European countries—including England, Germany, Italy and Russia, Christian
deaths outnumbered Christian births from 2010 to 2015. The religion has been buoyed
by continued growth in Africa and Latin America.
“The heart of Christianity is moving from Europe to Africa,” Mr. Hackett said.
The new report is an expansion on a major Pew Research study from 2015, which first
projected that by 2050 the world-wide Muslim population would nearly equal the
Christian population, perhaps for the first time in history.
Wednesday’s study offers new details about birthrates in recent years. It also projects
forward to 2060, when the Christian and Muslim populations will be nearly equal.
The world-wide population of Muslims is projected to grow by 70% between 2015
and 2060. Christianity will grow by 34%.
For both religions, the growing numbers come largely from fertility. Muslims have
gained slightly in recent years from people converting to Islam. Meanwhile, Christians
have lost more members than any other religion in recent years due to religious
Currently, 16% of the world’s population is religiously unaffiliated, with most of
them living in China. That group has gained the most from religious switching,
with more than 12 million people expected to leave behind any religious affiliation
between 2015 and 2020.
The percentage of the world population that is unaffiliated with any religion is
expected to fall in the coming decades because of lower birthrates, compared to
other belief groups.
Write to Ian Lovett at Ian.Lovett@wsj.com