Amid all the back slapping and puffery the Obama Administration has been doing in the past 12 hours, I am concerned about an explosion of violence that might occur by Al-Qaeda trying to reassert itself and assure the world they are not meaningless. Where will they attack and how are questions without answers unless one is in the command structure of the organization. However, if I were to guess there would be three possible targets.
The first of which would be Israel. Always a target of Hamas and Al-Qaeda and the ready made "target of opportunity" for them. The proximity to Gaza and the relationship to the "great Satan", the United States, makes this a natural.
The second would be military bases and embassies of the United States. Located throughout the world, these are another natural place for terrorists to attack. The desire for Al-Qaeda to make a big splash may lower the risk to these targets. However, if there were to be a planned attack on several locations at the same time, then we might see them come back into focus.
The last option would be an attack on the United States itself. If Al-Qaeda or its proxies have established networks in this country, then we might see this occur. Obviously, this has to be the most desired attack scenario. To strike back at the very country that killed their leader would re-invigorate them and remove any stigma of that their movement died with Osama.
I think there will be an attack. How it would be done i.e. conventional weapons, dirty bomb, chemicals, bombing aircraft, or even an EMP attack could all be potential scenario. Whatever the weapon, we all have to be on guard.
The timing of the attack will depend upon the preparedness of Al-Qaeda. Do they have plans already in the ready mode or will they have to create them. One thing for sure, they cannot wait very long. With every passing hour, their relevance is losing steam. To wait 6 months or a year, would let all of our defenses to drop but it would demoralize the true believers. I think it will happen sooner than later.
Where do you think that the attack will occur and how?
I am attaching an article from the Israel Project published today which talks about the Hamas reaction I did not expect anything different.
_____________________________________________________________
Hamas Condemns Bin Laden Killing, Calls Him a Holy Warrior
Hamas: Killing of "Arab holy warrior" is criminal
Netanyahu: Fight against terror rolls on
Ismael Haniyeh, Prime Minister of the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip.
Jerusalem, May 2 – "We condemn the assassination and the killing of an Arab holy warrior. We ask God to offer him mercy with the true believers and the martyrs."
This was the reaction of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh to the killing of Osama bin Laden.
While Americans, Israelis and much of the rest of the world welcomed the death of the man who masterminded the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States which killed around 3,000 people, Hamas was plunged into sadness. The Iranian-backed terrorist group, whose official charter calls for the destruction of Israel, has fired 328 rockets and mortars at Israeli civilians so far this year.
Haniyeh, who acts as Prime Minister in the Gaza Strip, referred to bin Laden as a “spiritual leader” and equated his death with an “American policy based on oppression and bloodshed in the Muslim and Arab world.”
Hamas, which a few days ago announced a unification agreement with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party, refuses to recognize Israel or enter into any peace negotiations with it.
Palestinian officials are scheduled to meet in Cairo on Wednesday to sign a reconciliation agreement and choose a new candidate for prime minister. Senior Hamas officials have already stated that the prime minister of the new unity government should come from Hamas-controlled Gaza.
Article seven of the Hamas charter states, “Muslims will fight the Jews (and kill them); until the Jews hide behind rocks and trees, which will cry: O Muslim! …there is a Jew hiding behind me, come on and kill him!”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, called the targeting of bin Laden a “resounding victory for justice, freedom and the common values of all democracies that are resolutely fighting shoulder to shoulder against terrorism,” in a statement.
Other Israeli officials expressed concern that the death of bin Laden could provoke terror groups to retaliate.
Al-Qaeda has “infiltrated the Palestinian territories with help from Hamas,” Abbas confirmed in a 2008 interview.
“I can say without doubt that Al-Qaeda is present in the Palestinian territories and that this presence, especially in Gaza, is facilitated by Hamas,” Abbas told the Arabic paper al-Hayat, The Times reported.
Analysts believe that al-Qaeda is trying to establish itself in new areas, particularly Gaza, because it is losing ground in traditional strongholds, such as Iraq.
“Under the Hamas strategic umbrella several salafis and jihadists have proliferated in the Gaza Strip and during the last year have attacked Israeli territory with missiles and rockets, sometimes in coordination with Hamas, sometimes independently,” Ely Karmon, a leading expert at Israel’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism, told The Israel Project.
“In my evaluation these groups will try to revenge Bin Laden's death by attacking Israel, the best U.S. ally in the region… If these attacks will produce Israeli casualties, they could provoke an Israeli retaliation and a new crisis between Israel and Hamas,” Karmon added.
“This might empower [al-Qaeda] to do more,” Theodore Karasik, the director for research and development at the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis told Al Jazeera.
Referring to the fear of reprisal for bin Laden’s death, Karasik said the younger generation of al-Qaeda is “more vicious” and more willing to take chances.
Andrew White, known as the “Vicar of Baghdad” who runs the only Anglican Church in Iraq, dubbed Bin Laden’s death as “very dangerous” because al-Qaeda “will try to show the world that they can and will still commit terror.” He made the comments on his Facebook page.
Experts Available for Comment:
Jonathan (Yoni) Fighel
Affiliations: Senior researcher (IDC Herzliya), former Military Governor of Ramallah, Jenin, & Tul Karem
Fields: Palestinians & the Palestinian Authority, Fatah, Tanzim, Hamas, & Islamic jihad, security policy in the territories, Fighting terrorism, suicide terrorism, Islamic culture
Tel: 09-952-7364, 09-952-7277
E-mail: pr@idc.ac.il
Ely Karmon
Affiliations: Senior researcher, Institute for Counter-Terrorism (IDC Herzliya)
Fields: International terrorism, strategic issues in the Middle East & beyond, weapons of mass destruction
Tel: 09-952-7277, 09-951-3768
Cell: 052-265-3306
E-mail: ekarmon@idc.ac.il
Yoram Meital
Affiliations: Chairman, Chaim Herzog Center for Middle East Studies and Diplomacy, Ben Gurion University
Fields: Terrorism, Israeli-Palestinian relations, Egypt
Tel: 08-647-2539
Cell: 052-879-5831
E-mail: ymeital@bgu.ac.il
Shabtai Shavit
Affiliations: Chairman of the Board of Directors, Institute for Counter-Terrorism (IDC Herzliya), former head of Mossad
Fields: Counter-terrorism
Via spokesperson:
Office: 03-557-2412
E-mail: pr@idc.ac.il
Emmanuel Sivan
Affiliations: Department of History, Hebrew University, Jerusalem
Fields: Contemporary and comparative Islamic fundamentalism, religious radicalism and politics in the Middle East
Office: 02-643-1996
E-mail: ESivan@vms.huji.ac.il
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Israel Project is a non-profit educational organization that provides factual information about Israel and the Middle East to the press, policy makers and the public.
The first of which would be Israel. Always a target of Hamas and Al-Qaeda and the ready made "target of opportunity" for them. The proximity to Gaza and the relationship to the "great Satan", the United States, makes this a natural.
The second would be military bases and embassies of the United States. Located throughout the world, these are another natural place for terrorists to attack. The desire for Al-Qaeda to make a big splash may lower the risk to these targets. However, if there were to be a planned attack on several locations at the same time, then we might see them come back into focus.
The last option would be an attack on the United States itself. If Al-Qaeda or its proxies have established networks in this country, then we might see this occur. Obviously, this has to be the most desired attack scenario. To strike back at the very country that killed their leader would re-invigorate them and remove any stigma of that their movement died with Osama.
I think there will be an attack. How it would be done i.e. conventional weapons, dirty bomb, chemicals, bombing aircraft, or even an EMP attack could all be potential scenario. Whatever the weapon, we all have to be on guard.
The timing of the attack will depend upon the preparedness of Al-Qaeda. Do they have plans already in the ready mode or will they have to create them. One thing for sure, they cannot wait very long. With every passing hour, their relevance is losing steam. To wait 6 months or a year, would let all of our defenses to drop but it would demoralize the true believers. I think it will happen sooner than later.
Where do you think that the attack will occur and how?
I am attaching an article from the Israel Project published today which talks about the Hamas reaction I did not expect anything different.
_____________________________________________________________
Hamas Condemns Bin Laden Killing, Calls Him a Holy Warrior
Hamas: Killing of "Arab holy warrior" is criminal
Netanyahu: Fight against terror rolls on
Ismael Haniyeh, Prime Minister of the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip.
Jerusalem, May 2 – "We condemn the assassination and the killing of an Arab holy warrior. We ask God to offer him mercy with the true believers and the martyrs."
This was the reaction of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh to the killing of Osama bin Laden.
While Americans, Israelis and much of the rest of the world welcomed the death of the man who masterminded the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States which killed around 3,000 people, Hamas was plunged into sadness. The Iranian-backed terrorist group, whose official charter calls for the destruction of Israel, has fired 328 rockets and mortars at Israeli civilians so far this year.
Haniyeh, who acts as Prime Minister in the Gaza Strip, referred to bin Laden as a “spiritual leader” and equated his death with an “American policy based on oppression and bloodshed in the Muslim and Arab world.”
Hamas, which a few days ago announced a unification agreement with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party, refuses to recognize Israel or enter into any peace negotiations with it.
Palestinian officials are scheduled to meet in Cairo on Wednesday to sign a reconciliation agreement and choose a new candidate for prime minister. Senior Hamas officials have already stated that the prime minister of the new unity government should come from Hamas-controlled Gaza.
Article seven of the Hamas charter states, “Muslims will fight the Jews (and kill them); until the Jews hide behind rocks and trees, which will cry: O Muslim! …there is a Jew hiding behind me, come on and kill him!”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, called the targeting of bin Laden a “resounding victory for justice, freedom and the common values of all democracies that are resolutely fighting shoulder to shoulder against terrorism,” in a statement.
Other Israeli officials expressed concern that the death of bin Laden could provoke terror groups to retaliate.
Al-Qaeda has “infiltrated the Palestinian territories with help from Hamas,” Abbas confirmed in a 2008 interview.
“I can say without doubt that Al-Qaeda is present in the Palestinian territories and that this presence, especially in Gaza, is facilitated by Hamas,” Abbas told the Arabic paper al-Hayat, The Times reported.
Analysts believe that al-Qaeda is trying to establish itself in new areas, particularly Gaza, because it is losing ground in traditional strongholds, such as Iraq.
“Under the Hamas strategic umbrella several salafis and jihadists have proliferated in the Gaza Strip and during the last year have attacked Israeli territory with missiles and rockets, sometimes in coordination with Hamas, sometimes independently,” Ely Karmon, a leading expert at Israel’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism, told The Israel Project.
“In my evaluation these groups will try to revenge Bin Laden's death by attacking Israel, the best U.S. ally in the region… If these attacks will produce Israeli casualties, they could provoke an Israeli retaliation and a new crisis between Israel and Hamas,” Karmon added.
“This might empower [al-Qaeda] to do more,” Theodore Karasik, the director for research and development at the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis told Al Jazeera.
Referring to the fear of reprisal for bin Laden’s death, Karasik said the younger generation of al-Qaeda is “more vicious” and more willing to take chances.
Andrew White, known as the “Vicar of Baghdad” who runs the only Anglican Church in Iraq, dubbed Bin Laden’s death as “very dangerous” because al-Qaeda “will try to show the world that they can and will still commit terror.” He made the comments on his Facebook page.
Experts Available for Comment:
Jonathan (Yoni) Fighel
Affiliations: Senior researcher (IDC Herzliya), former Military Governor of Ramallah, Jenin, & Tul Karem
Fields: Palestinians & the Palestinian Authority, Fatah, Tanzim, Hamas, & Islamic jihad, security policy in the territories, Fighting terrorism, suicide terrorism, Islamic culture
Tel: 09-952-7364, 09-952-7277
E-mail: pr@idc.ac.il
Ely Karmon
Affiliations: Senior researcher, Institute for Counter-Terrorism (IDC Herzliya)
Fields: International terrorism, strategic issues in the Middle East & beyond, weapons of mass destruction
Tel: 09-952-7277, 09-951-3768
Cell: 052-265-3306
E-mail: ekarmon@idc.ac.il
Yoram Meital
Affiliations: Chairman, Chaim Herzog Center for Middle East Studies and Diplomacy, Ben Gurion University
Fields: Terrorism, Israeli-Palestinian relations, Egypt
Tel: 08-647-2539
Cell: 052-879-5831
E-mail: ymeital@bgu.ac.il
Shabtai Shavit
Affiliations: Chairman of the Board of Directors, Institute for Counter-Terrorism (IDC Herzliya), former head of Mossad
Fields: Counter-terrorism
Via spokesperson:
Office: 03-557-2412
E-mail: pr@idc.ac.il
Emmanuel Sivan
Affiliations: Department of History, Hebrew University, Jerusalem
Fields: Contemporary and comparative Islamic fundamentalism, religious radicalism and politics in the Middle East
Office: 02-643-1996
E-mail: ESivan@vms.huji.ac.il
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Israel Project is a non-profit educational organization that provides factual information about Israel and the Middle East to the press, policy makers and the public.
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