One of our faithful readers and dependable commenters wrote:
"I would like to hear your opinions about Michigan. Romney is running more than $1 million in ads against Santorum in Michigan. Is it working? How much will Michigan affect Super Tuesday? What will Gingrich do with the new $10 million donation he just got from his billionaire? He should save it for the southern primaries. The last thing he should do is advertise just enough in Michigan to split the conservative vote again and allow Romney to win it."
Michigan definitely is in the spotlight for the next week leading up to the November 28 primary. The candidates have been crisscrossing the state making appearances and trumpeting their talking points. Millions are being spent on television ads both pro and con each candidate. Rommey and Santorum seem to be spending the most. Ron Paul and Gingrich are barely tipping the meter.
Last Thursday evening we attended the Oakland County (SE Michigan) Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner. Usually these events attract 400 or so, however, this one had 1400. The main speakers were Ann Romney (wife of Mitt), Governor Rick Snyder (who has endorsed Mitt), L Brooks Patterson (Republican County Exec), C. L . Bryant (a black conservative film maker) and Rick Santorum. We wondered, does the attendance indicate that Republicans are invigorated or was it the speakers? Obviously having Santorum come to your county meeting is a strong attraction, however, we do believe that the Republicans, Tea Party members and independents are very interested in making Obama a one term President.
As far as speakers go, in our mind, C.L. Bryant stole the show. He had the attendees standing in the aisles with his very strong Republican, personal and religious freedom and anti-Obama speech. His eloquent rhetoric struck the notes that we wish other candidates would have. We are going to see if we can find a copy of the speech and if so, we will post it. It was very memorable.
Ann Romney told us about her illnesses and how Mitt had stood by her through thick and thin (an anti Gingrich comment?) and how he was a businessman who had been tested in turnaround situations and how he could solve the nation's problems. It was a good candidate's wife's speech.
We were unimpressed with Santorum's delivery. Although the speech hit all the right notes, it seemed that when he was making a point, he seemed unable to strongly drive it home. He seemed tired although his speech hit the right subjects (ObamaCare, the budget, foreign affairs, his social conservative views), it did not get the rousing appeal of Bryant's. It was at the end of a long day of campaigning so we will give him a break.
As far as the Michigan vote goes, it appears as if Santorum has opened up a double digit lead over Mitt in a couple polls. This would hurt Romney badly as the state was his home and his father, George, was a former governor. Before we vote, we believe the margin will decrease to the 1-5% range but with a Santorum edge. Newt will be a far third place with Paul in single digits.
Romney is being hurt here with his stand on the GM and Chrysler bailouts to which he was not in favor. We agree with his stand but many in the state do not. They do not want to have their ox gored.
Another reason that Romney is lagging is that Michigan is an open primary which means anyone can vote in it. The unions have in the past and probably will this time, encourage their members to vote for Santorum as they feel he would be the weakest candidate to go up against Obama. The exit polls will tell us the impact of this strategy.
We do not see much Gingrich advertising, however, the Super Pacs, do not have to disclose who they are supporting so detecting who is paying for the anti-Romney and anti-Santorum ads are hard to detect. The billionaire supporter of Gingrich might be paying for some of the ads, but we have not seen any evidence of it.
As far as visiting, Gingrich was in Michigan in November, but we do not know of another visit lately. His campaign says he will be in the state before the November 28 primary. We will see.
Gingrich should be paying attention to the State of Georgia after his comment on the Sunday shows. His statement said that if he loses Georgia, Romney doesn't carry Michigan or Santorum is defeated in Pennsylvania, those respective campaigns will be severely damaged.
As far as Super Tuesday goes, Michigan is the setup act for this major election day. Who ever wins Michigan will take that advantage into this multi-state contest. It will not guarantee a win, but it will definitely set the tone.
Will any of the four remaining candidates bow out before the election? If we were to guess, the answer would be, no. However, should anyone of them suffer devastating losses in the upcoming weeks, it would be a possibility. As long as they all stay competitive, continue racking up delegates, they will stay in the race all the way to the convention.
Could we get a deadlocked convention? Probably, if they all stay competitive, we could see the first convention in recent history with more than one vote for President. After the first vote, there will be movement among the candidates and if not on the second but by the third vote, we will have our candidate. From a political junkie standpoint, that would be great, however, the party would probably be scared to death on how the news media would report it.
That is the report from Michigan. If you have any additional questions, please post them and we will respond.
Conservative Tom
"I would like to hear your opinions about Michigan. Romney is running more than $1 million in ads against Santorum in Michigan. Is it working? How much will Michigan affect Super Tuesday? What will Gingrich do with the new $10 million donation he just got from his billionaire? He should save it for the southern primaries. The last thing he should do is advertise just enough in Michigan to split the conservative vote again and allow Romney to win it."
Michigan definitely is in the spotlight for the next week leading up to the November 28 primary. The candidates have been crisscrossing the state making appearances and trumpeting their talking points. Millions are being spent on television ads both pro and con each candidate. Rommey and Santorum seem to be spending the most. Ron Paul and Gingrich are barely tipping the meter.
Last Thursday evening we attended the Oakland County (SE Michigan) Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner. Usually these events attract 400 or so, however, this one had 1400. The main speakers were Ann Romney (wife of Mitt), Governor Rick Snyder (who has endorsed Mitt), L Brooks Patterson (Republican County Exec), C. L . Bryant (a black conservative film maker) and Rick Santorum. We wondered, does the attendance indicate that Republicans are invigorated or was it the speakers? Obviously having Santorum come to your county meeting is a strong attraction, however, we do believe that the Republicans, Tea Party members and independents are very interested in making Obama a one term President.
As far as speakers go, in our mind, C.L. Bryant stole the show. He had the attendees standing in the aisles with his very strong Republican, personal and religious freedom and anti-Obama speech. His eloquent rhetoric struck the notes that we wish other candidates would have. We are going to see if we can find a copy of the speech and if so, we will post it. It was very memorable.
Ann Romney told us about her illnesses and how Mitt had stood by her through thick and thin (an anti Gingrich comment?) and how he was a businessman who had been tested in turnaround situations and how he could solve the nation's problems. It was a good candidate's wife's speech.
We were unimpressed with Santorum's delivery. Although the speech hit all the right notes, it seemed that when he was making a point, he seemed unable to strongly drive it home. He seemed tired although his speech hit the right subjects (ObamaCare, the budget, foreign affairs, his social conservative views), it did not get the rousing appeal of Bryant's. It was at the end of a long day of campaigning so we will give him a break.
As far as the Michigan vote goes, it appears as if Santorum has opened up a double digit lead over Mitt in a couple polls. This would hurt Romney badly as the state was his home and his father, George, was a former governor. Before we vote, we believe the margin will decrease to the 1-5% range but with a Santorum edge. Newt will be a far third place with Paul in single digits.
Romney is being hurt here with his stand on the GM and Chrysler bailouts to which he was not in favor. We agree with his stand but many in the state do not. They do not want to have their ox gored.
Another reason that Romney is lagging is that Michigan is an open primary which means anyone can vote in it. The unions have in the past and probably will this time, encourage their members to vote for Santorum as they feel he would be the weakest candidate to go up against Obama. The exit polls will tell us the impact of this strategy.
We do not see much Gingrich advertising, however, the Super Pacs, do not have to disclose who they are supporting so detecting who is paying for the anti-Romney and anti-Santorum ads are hard to detect. The billionaire supporter of Gingrich might be paying for some of the ads, but we have not seen any evidence of it.
As far as visiting, Gingrich was in Michigan in November, but we do not know of another visit lately. His campaign says he will be in the state before the November 28 primary. We will see.
Gingrich should be paying attention to the State of Georgia after his comment on the Sunday shows. His statement said that if he loses Georgia, Romney doesn't carry Michigan or Santorum is defeated in Pennsylvania, those respective campaigns will be severely damaged.
As far as Super Tuesday goes, Michigan is the setup act for this major election day. Who ever wins Michigan will take that advantage into this multi-state contest. It will not guarantee a win, but it will definitely set the tone.
Will any of the four remaining candidates bow out before the election? If we were to guess, the answer would be, no. However, should anyone of them suffer devastating losses in the upcoming weeks, it would be a possibility. As long as they all stay competitive, continue racking up delegates, they will stay in the race all the way to the convention.
Could we get a deadlocked convention? Probably, if they all stay competitive, we could see the first convention in recent history with more than one vote for President. After the first vote, there will be movement among the candidates and if not on the second but by the third vote, we will have our candidate. From a political junkie standpoint, that would be great, however, the party would probably be scared to death on how the news media would report it.
That is the report from Michigan. If you have any additional questions, please post them and we will respond.
Conservative Tom
Thanks for the update. As in Florida, I expect Romney's $30 million Super PAC funded mostly by Wall Street money will swamp Santorum with negative ads in the final week to close the gap in the polls, and then his organization on the ground will beat him on turnout. As you say, the wildcard will be how many union workers in Detroit will come out for revenge and vote for Santorum just to block Romney. If Romney can't even win in Michigan, it will be a public relations disaster for him.
ReplyDeleteSantorum is way ahead of Romney in Ohio, and so if he can manage a win in Michigan and Ohio, that will position him well for the rest of the MIdwest.
Then when those southern states come next, there are a lot of social conservatives that will vote for either Gingrich or Santorum.
Please keep us posted on any new developments in Michgan, and I hope you can give a post-election analysis of the results.
--David
I see that Romney has finally pulled ahead of Santorum by 2% in the latest polls. Thanks to Romney's Super PAC, he has outspent Santorum by a 14-to-1 ratio in Michigan. That's huge. Santorum will need to beat him in the debate tonight to have a chance, I believe.
ReplyDelete--David