Monday, February 3, 2014

Conservative Tom Published This Article on December 10 Before Any Mention Of Sanctions! Now Kerry Is Threatening Them. Has He Been Reading Our Playbook?

In a previous post, we mentioned "total isolation" as a possible outcome of the Kerry-Netanyahu talks. It will not make any supporter of Israel happy, however those who view the country as a "apartheid" nation, will be very pleased. 

So what is "total isolation?"  The best example is South Africa where sanctions were placed on the government, there was dis-investment in the country, and it was named a pariah nation.  It crushed the nation and caused a political change that prior to its institution would have never occurred. 

The first step in  this onerous political game was played out today when the Palestinians said they could not agree with the agreement that Kerry had proposed. They said unless  Jerusalem is the Palestinian  capital and that all land in Judea and Samaria was ceded to them, there would be no agreement. It is obvious to most that Israel will never agree to these two demands and especially the one relating to the holiest city in Judaism.

So where does this leave Kerry? He will be stymied and to get an agreement, he has only one point onto which he can exert pressure and that is Israel and on Netanyahu personally.  We suspect the Secretary of State will insist that Israel  acquiesce to the Palestinian demands. To ensure that the country can live in "peace"  there will be promises of UN and United States troops to guarantee that the borders are protected.  

However, the point that Netanyahu will insist there be no negotiations is Jerusalem. This is one point to which even the most peaceful Israeli will not agree.   It must remain a Jewish city, controlled and administered by the Israeli government.  The Palestinians know this. And for this reason they have placed it as one of their demands.

Netanyahu will and can be somewhat flexible on borders and other issues and will try to accommodate Kerry. However, the Palestinians will insist that all of  their demands must be met or there will be no agreement. They  believe (and are probably right) that Kerry will force the Israelis to swallow this bitter pill. 

 Kerry will have reached a deadlock. Netanyahu will not agree to Jerusalem. The Obama team wants an agreement  and have decided to do anything to accomplish that goal. It is at this point that the Secretary of State will  employ what we call the "total isolation" option. This proposal as it will be presented to Netanyahu will have the following points. Unless Israel agrees to the Palestinian demands:
     --Israel will be cut off from military supplies and equipment from the United States
     --All financial support (foreign aid) from the United States to Israel will end
     -- The United States will go to the UN and have Israel branded a "pariah" nation. This will include sanctions, dis-investment and the curtailing of all trade.
     -- As a result of the "pariah" designation, United States law would prevent supporters of Israel in this country from sending money, supplies, food, military equipment to the them. It could also  be interpreted to forbid tourism.

In other words, Israel would be starved for cash,  military supplies and friends until they agree to Palestinian demands for a peace treaty which will expand over time.  Israel will not be a comfortable place to live under these conditions.


We expect the declaration of the "total isolation" option to be done sometime after the first of the year, probably in the first quarter. However, it could be later depending on other events in the region and the world.

The unresolved questions are, will Netanyahu fold? Will Israel give up its ancestral Capital? Will Obama and Kerry be so gutsy? Will the world follow the Obama/Kerry team on this? How long could Israel hold out against such tremendous pressure? Would Russia and China intervene?

Of course, we could be wrong. However, with the recent death of Nelson Mandela, the memories of crushing the regime in South Africa have been rekindled and many of those who do not like Israel also were not fans of the ruling Afrikaners including Obama and Kerry.

Let's hope that we are wrong and that Kerry and Obama become involved in other issues that keep their attention and the Palestinian-Israeli issue loses its luster.  Unfortunately, we see no other way that the Obama-Kerry can complete their dream of bring about Middle East peace. It would be the wrong decision but that never has stopped this
Administration before.



Conservative Tom











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