Does Election History Predict A Trump Victory?

POLITICS

This Little-Known Election Fact About Christmas Predicts That Trump Will Win Election In 2016

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Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump has consistently remained at the top of the polls and continues to dominate going into the Christmas season.

As of the second week of December, Trump lead the GOP race with more than 30 percent of voters — double the number of Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson, who all hover around 15 percent, according to an average of national polls from Real Clear Politics.

Many people think this is a clear sign that Trump will be the party’s nominee with only a few months to go before the primaries begin — and there’s a good chance they’re right.

In all but two out of the last 10 primary elections, the candidate who led at Christmastime did, in fact, go on to win the GOP nomination.

Newsmax gathered the following review of the past 10 presidential elections, including a recap of who was winning the Republican primary fight around Christmas.

Note: * denotes the candidate who went on to secure the nomination.

1. 2012 — On Christmas Day 2011, Newt Gingrich was leading the polls, but the eventual Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, was closing in. Romney would soon take over, surging to more than 50 percent in the polls through the winter and spring, while Gingrich faltered, eventually finishing  second with 19 percent.

Newt Gingrich 27.8
*Mitt Romney 24.4
Rand Paul 12.6
Rick Perry 6.6
Michele Bachmann 6.4
Rick Santorum 3.6

2. 2008 — On Dec. 25, 2007, eventual GOP nominee John McCain was in third place, trailing Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee. Giuliani drifted in the new year, while McCain and Huckabee surged. Eventually, however, it was McCain’s surge that prevailed. Then-Sen. Barack Obama, who defeated McCain in the general election, was also behind Hillary Clinton in Democrat polls on Christmas Day. He was at 25 percent, while Hillary was at 43 percent.

Rudy Giuliani 20.8
Mike Huckabee 17.8
*John McCain 15.5
Mitt Romney 15.0
Fred Thompson 11.5
Rand Paul 4.0

3. 2004 — President George W. Bush ran virtually unopposed for the Republican nomination, and defeated Democrat Sen. John Kerry in the general election.

4. 2000 — Then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush took an early lead in the primaries and maintained it to win the Republican nomination. A nationwide Gallup pollshowed the following numbers on Dec. 21, 1999:

*George W. Bush 60
John McCain 17
Steve Forbes 9
Alan Keyes 4

5. 1996 — Bob Dole was the early front-runner in the Republican primary and stayed on top throughout. After winning the GOP nomination, he lost the general election to Bill Clinton. Polling below is an average from January to June 1995.

*Bob Dole 50.3 
Phil Gramm 11.4
Pat Buchanan 6.3

6. 1992 — President George H. W. Bush stayed on top of the polls throughout the race, winning the Republican nomination but losing the general election to Democrat and then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton. The numbers below come from an average of polling from July to December 1991, according to The New York Times.

*George H. W. Bush 72.0 
Pat Buchanan 15.0
David Duke 3.5

7. 1988 — Vice President Bush led early in the polls from January to June 1987 and held on to that lead through Christmastime, securing the Republican nomination and going on to win the presidency.

*George H. W. Bush 35.9 
Bob Dole 20.7
Jack Kemp 7.4
Pat Robertson 4.3
Al Haig 4.2
Howard Baker 2.1

8. 1984 — President Ronald Reagan ran for his second term essentially unopposed in the primaries and handily won re-election.

9. 1980 — Reagan led the primary race early in this election, and an average of polls conducted from January to June 1979 show he had a big lead. He remained on top, winning the Republican nomination and the general election.

*Ronald Reagan 28.8 
Gerald Ford 17.0
Howard Baker 9.6
John Connally 8.0
Charles Percy 1.0
Bob Dole 0.8
James R. Thompson 0.6
George H. W. Bush 0.6

10. 1976 — According to The New York Times, an average of polls conducted January through June of 1975 showed President Gerald Ford, who inherited the presidency when Nixon resigned, would go on to win the Republican nomination and the general election, remaining on top throughout the contest.

*Gerald Ford 38.3 
Ronald Reagan 19.7
Barry Goldwater 10.0
Nelson Rockefeller 6.7
Howard Baker 5.0

Do you think Trump will continue the historic trend, or, like the two most recent elections, will another candidate be able to surge into first place? Like and share this on Facebook and Twitter and let us know what you think.