Our Predictions--Bush For Republicans And Obama For The Democratic Nomination

2016 Update: Are the Parties
Close to Picking Nominees?

• Jan 9, 2016 
• Source: AAN 
• by: Jim Ellis

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Jim Ellis covers the polls...

The first 2016 presidential campaign votes 

will actually be cast next month in Iowa, 

New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada

 and, at this point, former Secretary of State 

Hillary Clinton appears to be a lock for the 

Democratic nomination.  Though the latest

 polling certainly shows Vermont Sen. Bernie

 Sanders competitive with Ms. Clinton in Iowa 

and New Hampshire, he trails badly in all of the southern states and in the important Super

Delegate category.  Much of the South will vote in the March 1st Super Tuesday primary,

 meaning the nomination fight will likely be over at that time. 

For Republicans, a long process will begin in February.  In Iowa, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leads 

in most polls, but Donald Trump has substantial polling advantages in the other three February

 states and most of those voting on Super Tuesday.  Still, it appears no one is on a path to 

capture the nomination on the first ballot, which could mean the first deadlocked political 

convention since Wendell Willkie became the Republican standard bearer on the sixth

 ballot at the 1940 GOP convention.  The last time a convention went longer than the 

Willkie-Thomas E. Dewey battle occurred all the way back in 1920 when then-Ohio 

Sen. Warren G. Harding won the Republican nomination on the 11th ballot after 

securing just 5% of the vote on the first roll call. 

The GOP race is very fluid, and it would not be surprising to see a second tier candidate

rise to competitive status in the early February states.  Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) may 

become the candidate most of the establishment backs, and New Jersey Gov. Chris 

Christie may be positioned well enough to by-pass former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. 

 Such an occurrence would almost assuredly end Bush’s effort and possibly allow 

Christie to become the dark horse February candidate.  Source: AAN

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