Interesting Prognostications! Do You Agree With Her?

Thursday,January 09, 2014

[Editor’s Note: The following post is by TDV contributor, Wendy McElroy]

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness...it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us...” — Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

I cannot shake a sticky feeling of optimism about 2014. 

It rose in me for the strangest reason yesterday. CNN was providing background noise when a term caught my ear: bug-out bag. This is a portable kit of the items you need to survive for seventy-two hours. The Red Cross suggests keeping one on hand in case it is necessary to quickly evacuate your home due to a disaster. But the term “bug-out-bag” is most often associated with survivalist “cranks” who are prepping for when the SHTF (sh** hits the fan) – that is, they are preparing for an economic and social collapse.

CNN was discussing bug-out bags because the respected financial guru, David John Marotta had advised his wealthy clients to prepare one against “the possibility of a precipitous decline.” In short, he warned against a collapse from which city-dwelling clients should flee. Marotta wrote, “Firearms are the last item on the list, but they are on the list.”  The broadcasters seemed dumbfounded by the words coming out of their own mouths. They hastily assured listeners that Marotta was not predicting a financial apocalypse. Rather he thought a slow European-style decline was more likely. That's the reassuring news?

Well, actually it is. “Slow” means there is still time to make preparations. And if figures like Marotta are recommending “prepping,” then the reality of the economic situation is going mainstream.   

To make preparations, however, it is useful to have a sense of what to expect. This leads directly to my predictions for 2014, which I introduce by three cavaets. First, predictions are a territory into which financial guru Doug Casey says people should not wander if they intend to include an event and a time; I recklessly include both. Second, predictions should be vagued up in a manner perfected by psychics who proclaim “you will meet a stranger...”; I offer specifics. Third, the next year will be volatile and largely defined by unintended consequences and unexpected reactions; 2014 is not the raw material required for accurate predictions. 

And, yet, there are specific events that I think are more likely than not to occur within the next twelve months. 2014 is likely to resemble the opening sentence  of Dickens' Tale of Two Cities. It will be a wild mixture of both the best and the worst of times. The ratio of good to bad that impacts people's lives depends largely on whether they are ready to embrace the best and marginalize the worst. Happiness and liberty are similar to luck; they tend to favor the prepared. 

30 Possibilities For 2014:

Here are some of the “best of times” that I expect in 2014:

1. More individuals wake up and take control of their lives (a large rise in subscribers recently at TDVshows this)
2. Snowden continues to make opposing the state look trendy.
3. Libertarianism swells in popularity as evidenced by media attacks.
4. Biotech 'miracles', including reversal of aging, edge toward being real.
5. Ditto on tech breakthroughs, including robots and self-driving cars.
6. 3D printing creates a cornucopia of cheap and accessible goods.
7. The correction in gold prices ends.
8. More states legalize marijuana; a crack in the drug war spreads.
9. Bitcoins stabilize and are more accepted by the mainstream.
10. Republicans win the House but not the Senate; bipartanship deepens.
11. Virgin Galactic begins space tourism flights in Aug. 2014, on schedule.
12. US$ fades as the world's reserve currency; Yuan fills void.
13. Use of cash increases due to concern over ID theft, privacy.
14. Supreme Court rules against Obamacare in at least one key case.
15. Backlash against “global warming” grows, led by Canada and Australia.  

Here are some of the “worst of times” that I expect in 2014:

1. True US unemployment rises despite what is officially reported. The housing market crashes again, especially in Canada.
2. Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, perhaps covertly.
3. New minimum wage laws sweep America, driven by Democrats.
4. 29-hour week is standard for most new employees due to Obamacare.
5. American economy lumbers into zombie mode, similar to that of Japan.
6. 1% are richer; the middle class is poorer; the poor...don't go there!
7. Terrorist attack occurs somewhere in Russia during Olympics.
8. The price of food and energy soar.
9. A series of American cities declare bankruptcy.
10. Snowden is still in Russia; Assange is still at Ecuadorian embassy.
11. Social unrest grows worldwide, including racial unrest in America.
12. Obamacare is a train wreck; insurance companies balk at paying claims.
13. Quantitative easing continues worldwide.
14. Taliban controls most of Afghanistan; US does not remove all troops.   
15. "Lone shooter" events occur increasingly throughout the US.

My synopsis for optimism ensues.  In terms of prosperity: The innovation and energy of individuals is driving the economy despite the desperate effort of governments to clamp down and to control. We live in an age of miracles, wrought not by religion but by science and technology – that is to say, by the mind of man. Our species deserves a standing ovation. In terms of politics: decent and productive people are waking up to the corruption and thievery that is the state. They are becoming independent enough to weather economic and social hardships that could otherwise break them in two.  In terms of liberty: the key factor in how freely people live is how thoroughly they reject the state from their lives and deal with it only under duress. I see this happening everywhere. It is in the air, like ozone before a storm.

Your personal choices have never been more important. And there is still time... but shrinking

Every day you're alive to fight the good fight is a good day. But, time is of the essence if you're going to continue leading a semi-free life. With mainstream financial advisors now telling clients to organize 'bug-out-bags' in case major cities become uninhabitable, there can be little doubt in the thinking man's mind that these might just be the worst of times. When you realize that FEMA and local news channels are beginning to parrot the same theme, you might begin to wonder: "Why is it exactly that I am still here?"

Click here or on thumbnail

As you can see, as Jeff Berwick often says, things are moving quickly. The worst thing we could do as individuals is panic - remember, it is also the best of times. By figuring out and focusing on clear goals designed to protect ourselves and our families financially (and physically, etc.), we can lead the happy and secure lives we deserve. 

2013--A Year Of Declining Morality, Increasing Internet Influence And Other Issues

Thursday,January 02, 2014

[Editor's Note: The following post is by TDV Editor-in-Chief, Jeff Berwick, and is but a small excerpt from the TDV Newsletter]

Should 2013 be remembered as the year in which the War On Drugs, war, and statism all reached all time popularity lows?

For sure, the US is changing dramatically and quickly.

Pew Research Center found a large range of "data milestones, breakthroughs, peaks and valleys in 2013," such as record support for same-sex marriage and the legalization of weed. But more importantly (yes, even more important than weed), record levels of distrust of the federal government. Perhaps this is because, for the first time in 2013, 50% of the population received its news from the internet.

From Pew:

1. Just over half (51%) of the public now favors same-sex marriage, while 42% are opposed.
2. A majority of Americans (52%) now favor legalizing the use of marijuana.
3. A majority agrees the U.S. should mind its own business internationally, the highest measure in nearly a half century of polling.
4. The share of Americans saying they do not want their own representative in Congress reelected – 38% – is at its highest point in two decades.
5. For the first time, a majority of the public (53%) says that the federal government threatens their personal rights and freedoms.
6. 36% of the nation’s young adults ages 18 to 31—the so-called Millennial generation— now live in their parents’ home, the highest share in at least four decades.
7. A record 40% of all households with children under the age of 18 include mothers who are either the sole or primary source of income for the family.
8. The U.S., which has a total population of 317 million, is now home to a record 40.4 million immigrants.
9. A record seven-in-ten (69%) Hispanic high school graduates in the class of 2012 enrolled in college that fall, two percentage points higher than the rate (67%) among their white counterparts.
10. The percentage of Americans who say the U.S. plays a more important and powerful role as a world leader than it did 10 years ago has fallen to a 40-year low of just 17%.
11. The percentage of American Catholics calling themselves “strong” Catholics is at a four-decade low.
12. For the first time since Pew Research Center began tracking smartphone adoption, a majority of Americans now own a smartphone of some kind.
13. 50% of the public now cites the internet as a main source for national and international news.

Statism At All-Time Low

A Reuters poll, amid mainstream media balderdash aimed towards inspiring intervention in Syria, found only 9 percent of Americans supported military intervention in Syria (a factor that might have, for the first time in history, prevented a war). Mainstream media is only trusted by 23 percent of the public.

Such low sentiment has long also reflected public opinion of Congress, and even the Presidency.

Secretary of State John Kerry, before a group of State Department workers, told the audience that the world has been "complicated" by "... this little thing called the internet and the ability of people everywhere to communicate instantaneously and to have more information coming at them in one day than most people can process in months or a year."

According to Kerry, the internet "makes it much harder to govern, makes it much harder to organize people, much harder to find the common interest."

I take that as a compliment.