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Showing posts with label poll. Show all posts

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Looks Like Biden Is About To Be Replaced By Someone Else As His Poll Numbers Crash

Biden's lead evaporates in new poll that finds him weaker vs. Trump than Hillary Clinton was in 2016

He has a 'massive enthusiasm gap'

Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

GIANCARLO SOPO

Former Vice President Joe Biden's national lead over President Donald Trump has nearly evaporated according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows the Democratic frontrunner facing a "massive enthusiasm gap" in the November general election.

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Although Biden maintains a solid lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination, he finds himself in a statistical tie with the president in a head-to-head matchup, only slightly ahead by two points (49-47%) among registered voters. The pollsters noted that Biden's standing has deteriorated since their last survey in February which found him with a more comfortable 7-point (52-45%) over Trump.
Meanwhile, among Democratic primary voters who support Sanders for the nomination, 15% said they'd back Trump over Biden in November.

Biden trails Trump on key issues and enthusiasm

A major red flag for the Democrats is that the ABC News/Washington Post survey found Trump's supporters far more energized than Biden's backers. While 53% of Trump voters described themselves as "very enthusiastic" about supporting him, only 24% of Biden's backers said the same. Trump also leads Biden on key issues.

Despite the economic standstill resulting from the coronavirus pandemic, 57% of voters approve of Trump's handling of the economy, the highest ever in ABC/Post surveys. Biden also trails Trump, 42-50%, when it comes to who voters trust to manage the nation's economy.
Meanwhile, Trump and Biden are about even (45-43%) in terms of who voters trust to handle the coronavirus outbreak.

Biden is even trailing Clinton, on par with other losing presidential candidates

Another ominous sign for Democrats is that the poll suggests Biden may be a weaker general election candidate than Hillary Clinton was in 2016.
For instance, on the question of voter enthusiasm, the ABC/Post surveys taken September-October 2016 found that, on average, 46% of Clinton's supporters described themselves as "very enthusiastic" about her candidacy, nearly twice the percentage of Biden's backers who said the same. In races that are decided by the slimmest of margins, voter enthusiasm is considered a key indicator of which candidate's supporters are likeliest to show up to the polls.
As the poll's analysis shows, the lack of enthusiasm surrounding Biden's candidacy is on par with that of other recent losing presidential campaigns. "As few as 17% of former Republican presidential nominee and Arizona Sen. John McCain's supporters were very enthusiastic about his candidacy in 2008, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney saw 23% in 2012," Sofi Sinozich wrotefor ABC.
"Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24% – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls," she added.
Methodology: The ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted March 22-25, 2020 among a random national sample of 1,003 adults with a partisan composition of 30-24-37%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Friday, October 11, 2019

Who They Think They Are Fooling?

It Now Appears Fox News' Trump Poll Was Set Up in Such a Way That Trump Could Never Win

Volume 90%

00:00

02:26

By C. Douglas Golden
Published October 11, 2019 at 8:28am

Was a much-ballyhooed Fox News poll that showed a majority of voters in favor of impeaching the president a rigged survey? That’s what some are claiming after looking at the sample size.

If you’re the type who pays attention to politics or decided to tune in thanks to the impeachment ruckus, you’ve probably seen the poll. It was the clearest sign yet that the president is in political trouble with the American people: 51 percent of respondents said they were in favor of impeaching and removing President Donald Trump over the Ukraine scandal.

Another 4 percent wanted him impeached but not removed, because apparently there’s nothing like a national soap opera without consequence. (Of course, this is how any form of impeachment will likely end — given the facts we know, the politicized nature of the charges and the composition of the Senate.)

Forty percent, meanwhile, didn’t want him impeached at all.

President Trump, who has stepped up his criticism of Fox News in recent months, was none too happy about the poll — although one wonders if part of the issue had to do with the glee with which the media reported it.

“On Thursday morning, Mr. Trump lashed out at Fox News over a poll it commissioned on attitudes toward the impeachment inquiry,” The New York Times reported, noting a tweet from the president that read, “I have NEVER had a good @FoxNews Poll. Whoever their Pollster is, they suck.”

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

· Oct 10, 2019

From the day I announced I was running for President, I have NEVER had a good @FoxNews Poll. Whoever their Pollster is, they suck. But @FoxNews is also much different than it used to be in the good old days. With people like Andrew Napolitano, who wanted to be a Supreme....

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

...Court Justice & I turned him down (he’s been terrible ever since), Shep Smith, @donnabrazile (who gave Crooked Hillary the debate questions & got fired from @CNN), & others, @FoxNews doesn’t deliver for US anymore. It is so different than it used to be. Oh well, I’m President!

73K

9:08 AM - Oct 10, 2019

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The Daily Beast also took great joy in pointing out some Fox News personalities had similar issues with their network’s own poll.

Do you think that Donald Trump will be impeached?

3% (90 Votes)

97% (3002 Votes)

The article’s headline, “Fox News Host Slams Fox Poll Showing Most Americans Approve Impeachment,” appeared below the words “Doesn’t Count.”

“Fox News host Greg Gutfeld on Thursday blasted his network’s most recent poll finding a majority of registered voters want President Donald Trump impeached and removed from office over the Ukraine scandal, claiming it was unfairly biased towards Democrats and that ‘these polls have been known to be wrong,’” the article began.

Oh, the old “fake news” gambit! Those Fox News agitprop flunkies. They can’t even accept reality even if it comes from their own network!

Except Gutfeld’s criticism of the poll was totally legitimate.

“I’ve been seeing this poll everywhere and I know it’s a Fox News poll but we got to point out that it’s weighted toward Democrats,” Gutfeld said.

“From what I’ve seen, it’s 48 percent Democrats, 40 percent Republicans, 12 percent other. So it’s weighted for that.”

And that’s the issue here: Fox News’ poll doesn’t necessarily represent reality, at least in terms of the sample that it chose.

The latest survey on the topic from Gallup, taken last month, shows that 31 percent of Americans consider themselves Democrats, 29 percent consider themselves Republicans and 38 percent consider themselves independents.

However, in Fox News’ poll, which sampled 1,003 voters, the percentages were exactly as Gutfeld said they were. This is a problem for two major reasons.

The first, obviously, is that the margin between self-identified Democrats and Republicans is not nearly how they’re represented in Fox News’ poll. That’s minor, however, when you consider how massively independents are underrepresented in the poll — particularly when you realize their opinions on impeachment.

Independent voters, who would normally be the largest voting bloc, are instead a distant third among voters sampled for the poll — and they opposed impeachment by a margin of 47 percent to 39 percent.

Did Fox set out to rig the poll? Did they take a truly random sample and end up with a skewed result?

Either way, this poll isn’t exactly news when it’s weighted the way it is. It produced predictable results — 85 percent of Democrats wanted impeachment and removal compared to 13 percent of Republicans. And then there are those independent numbers.

Gutfeld also made another point we should all keep in mind: This was taken during the “fever pitch of media coverage about a single topic.”

Let’s see if there’s anything resembling the kind of fervor for impeaching Trump as any memory of the Ukrainian call fades and the Democrat rhetoric about how this was The Worst Thing Ever™ abates.

It doesn’t matter that Fox News’ name is on this poll. Let’s see where it is in two months with a different sample. Then we’ll talk.