Prof Gives Trump The Nod On The Election

  

This Professor Has Picked the

 President Correctly for the

 Last 32 Years. Guess Who He's

 Picking Now

• 09/24/2016 
• Source: AAN 
• by: Remington Strelivo

13.9K 17 5  14K

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Professor Alan Lichtman of American University has correctly predicted
who will win the White House for 32 years. And he thinks Trump will beat
 Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.

Using a 13 question paradigm of true/false statements, which Licthman calls
 “the Keys to the White House,” Lichtman has correctly predicted every
 presidential victory since 1984.

Lichtman’s paradigm is based off of historic campaign trends, and basically,
 if the majority of statements are deemed “True,” the election favors the
 incumbent party—in 2016, Hillary Clinton. If the majority of statements are
deemed “False,” the opposition party—Trump—has the edge.

Lichtman’s statements are:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds
2.  more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous
3.  midterm elections.
4. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
5. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
6. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
7. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election
8.  campaign.
9. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term
10.  equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
11. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in 
12. national policy.
13. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
14. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
15. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major
16.  failure in foreign or military affairs.
17. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major
18.  success in foreign or military affairs.
19. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a
20.  national hero.
21. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic
22.  or a national hero.

Lichtman has deemed that the Democrats have, for sure, lost five “keys”:
 number 1, 3, 7, 11, and 12. The sixth key, which would give the edge to
Trump, is key number 4: the third party candidate. Gary Johnson, the
Libertarian Party candidate, might have been a Republican governor,
but data shows he’s hurting Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump.

Assuming Johnson gets more than five percent in November—he’s currently
 polling just above 10%—Lichtman says he “would be the sixth and final key
against the Democrats."

Lichtman admits that the polarizing nature of Donald Trump makes him the
 “most difficult election to assess” since he began predicting the presidency
in 1984—but still thinks he’ll ultimately “very narrowly” have the edge.

In November, the American people will either validate Lichtman’s theory
 once again—or prove it wrong for the first time since 1984.

Read more at http://americanactionnews.com/articles/this-professor-has-picked-the-president-correctly-for-the-last-32-years-guess-who-he-s-picking-now#b041mkxvQgYilR2u.99