FRANCE'S VOTE RIPPLES ACROSS EUROPE, MARKETS, DIPLOMACY
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PARIS (AP) -- Whatever the result of France's presidential election, the choice will resonate far beyond France's borders, from extremist strongholds in Syria to Hong Kong trading floors and the halls of the U.N. Security Council.
It could be bigger than Brexit - the future of Europe is at stake as disenchanted French voters choose between untested centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen in Sunday's presidential runoff.
Here are a few reasons why this race matters:
RISK OF A FREXIT
Financial markets have watched this election with exceptional attention, jittery over Le Pen's dreams of pulling France out of the European Union and its shared euro currency. The market mood has buoyed in recent days as polls show the chance of a Le Pen victory receding, but the prospect of a "Frexit" would be dire.
Far worse than Britain's exit from the European Union, France's departure from either the EU or the euro could spell death for the idea of European economic unity, which emerged from the bloodshed of World War II. France is a founding member of the EU, and its main driver along with former rival Germany.
Le Pen has waffled on how exactly she might deal with the EU as French president, but tapped into a widespread misunderstanding of the bloc, blaming it for myriad economic and security woes. She also blames free trade pacts for killing French jobs and wants to renegotiate them, which would cause a financial tangle for the rest of the EU and France's trade partners.
A Frexit could herald controls on money transfers, capital flight, a plague of defaults and lawsuits on bonds and contracts. Le Pen's team, however, downplays apocalyptic scenarios, arguing that the euro, now used by 19 countries, is headed for a breakup eventually anyway.
Macron countered with a campaign video this week showing British voters regretting their vote to leave the EU, saying they didn't realize what they were getting into - and American voters regretting their vote for Trump.
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TRUMP AND POPULISM
If Le Pen pulls off a surprise win, that would be a resounding victory for the populist wave reflected by the votes for President Donald Trump and Brexit. Many French workers who have lost jobs because of globalization are similarly fed up with establishment parties and attracted by promises of ditching the status quo.
Macron is an unabashed progressive who embraces globalization and championed startups and Uber-like car services as France's economy minister - angering taxi drivers and other workers who feel left behind.
He has framed himself as a bulwark against Trump's protectionism - and he won an unusually high-profile endorsement this week from former U.S. President Barack Obama.
Even if Le Pen loses, however, she has proven that populism is a powerful force in France that could make it hard for Macron to accomplish his goals even if he wins. Many who plan to vote for Macron on Sunday see him as the lesser of two evils as opposed to a savior.
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ASSAD'S SYRIA AND PUTIN'S RUSSIA
France is a nuclear power with a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council and tens of thousands of troops scattered around the world. It is also a key U.S. ally in the campaign against the Islamic State group. While its diplomatic strength has faded, Macron could bring new energy to French foreign policy - and firebrand Le Pen would be sure to make France's voice heard in world affairs.
Macron would likely keep up the French operations against extremists in Iraq and Syria and Africa's Sahel region - and keep up pressure on Russia over Ukraine and its actions to bolster Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Le Pen, on the other hand, firmly backs Assad and has distanced herself from Trump over recent U.S. airstrikes targeting Assad's regime. Le Pen also met recently with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and would push for lifting sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine.
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PARIS (AP) — With a bleed-the-rich video game and suggestions of a "Frexit," French far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon is rattling financial markets by rising in polls just 11 days before the country's presidential vote.
Melenchon's surge is the latest surprise in a roller-coaster campaign that's being closely watched around Europe and has featured a strong dose of anti-establishment populism.
Most polling agencies still show that centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen are leading ahead of the April 23 first round presidential vote, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the May 7 presidential runoff. Yet Melenchon, once a distant fifth, has risen in recent polls to roughly third, about even with conservative presidential candidate Francois Fillon.
Melenchon's sharp-tongued wit and eloquent anti-capitalist rhetoric during the two presidential debates helped boost his standing among an electorate frustrated with France's traditional left and right parties, which have failed to create jobs or pull the country out of its economic stagnation.
Promising to heavily tax the rich and renegotiate France's role in the EU and trade pacts, Melenchon is also giving financial markets a new reason to worry. A possible French departure from the EU — a "Frexit" — would be devastating to the bloc.
Investors are growing more cautious ahead of the presidential election in the eurozone's second-biggest economy. The difference between the 10-year bond yields of France and Germany has risen to its widest in six weeks, as investors flock to the perceived safety of German debt.
"With the growing threat of Euroskeptic parties destabilizing the eurozone's unity weighing heavily on sentiment, the euro may be in store for further punishment," Lukman Otunuga of FXTM said Wednesday.
Melenchon, 65, is an unlikely iconoclast. He spent decades in mainstream politics, serving in a Socialist government and in parliament. He now leads a far-left alliance that includes the Communist Party.
Yet Melenchon tapped into the populist zeitgeist — and the social media revolution — years ago.
An early Twitter user, he has mastered tweets targeting the world of finance. His YouTube channel - started for the 2012 presidential campaign, where he finished fourth — has garnered 21 million views. He's using holograms to broadcast election rallies to multiple cities at once.
And his campaign has generated new attention in recent days thanks to a goofy online game called Fiscal Kombat created by his supporters. The player — represented by a rudimentary caricature of Melenchon — grabs leading politicians and shakes them until money falls from their pockets. The money, presumably stolen from the masses, can then be used to build a more egalitarian economy.
His anti-EU, anti-globalization rhetoric echoes that of Marine Le Pen, his rival on the far right. But on immigration and Islam — key campaign issues — Melenchon is staking out the opposite ground from Le Pen.
At a Mediterranean Sea rally on Sunday, Melenchon held a moment of silence for the thousands of migrants killed trying to cross the sea in hopes of a better life in Europe.
"Listen - it's the silence of death," he told the crowd. "It is up to us to say that emigration is always forced exile, a suffering."
Calling himself the "candidate of peace," he's lobbying to quit NATO and denounced U.S. President Donald Trump's retaliatory missile strikes in Syria as a "criminal, irresponsible act." He's also campaigning hard for renewable energy — and wants French voters to eat more quinoa.
Thanks to his poll surge, Melenchon's rivals are increasingly attacking him instead of each other, saying he'd lead the economy to collapse.
At a rally Wednesday in Lille, Melenchon shot back at his three main rivals, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, independent centrist Emmanuel Macron — who share the top spot in most polls — and conservative Francois Fillon.
"If you elect those three, you'll be spitting blood," Melenchon told a full house.
Macron, an economy minister who bailed out of his job in the Socialist government, said at a rally in Paul, in southwest France, that only he can unify the nation. "We are the only binding force today for the country because we are the only ones who don't want to break it up."