Showing posts with label Stock market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock market. Show all posts
Monday, August 27, 2018
Wednesday, December 28, 2016
Oh How The Dems Are Going To Hate This News
Trump Tweets "Thanks Donald" For Highest Consumer Confidence In 15 Years
When we observed yesterday that according to the latest Conference Board data, US consumer confidence had soared to 113.7, the highest print since August 2001, we had just one question: would Trump take credit for the spike...
... which even the organization behind the index admitted was driven entirely by hope in the Trump administration, as the rebound was "due solely to increasing Expectations which hit a 13-year high"
"The post-election surge in optimism for the economy, jobs and income prospects, as well as for stock prices which reached a 13-year high, was most pronounced among older consumers."
Meanwhile, absent hope for the future, reality for most US consumers deteriorated and their assessment of current conditions declined, with those saying business conditions are "good" decreased slightly from 29.7 percent to 29.2 percent, while those saying business conditions are "bad" increased from 15.2 percent to 17.3 percent.
As the Conference Board correctly notes, consumers' "continued optimism will depend
on whether or not their expectations are realized."
on whether or not their expectations are realized."
One person, however, who is quite confident the surge in confidence will continue, was President-elect Donald Trump, who in a late Tuesday night tweet, credited himself for the surge in optimism on Twitter, writing "Thanks Donald!"
Trump's latest tweet follows a similar one from Monday night when he tweeted that "The world was gloomy before I won - there was no hope. Now the market is up nearly 10% and Christmas spending is over a trillion dollars!"
As we asked on Monday, "we wonder what Trump will sat if/when Goldman Sachs stops rising and stocks tumble ("never gonna happen", probably The Fed's fault after all), but perhaps even more importantly, how does he feel about the $1.2 trillion of value he has erased from global capital markets (equity and debt) since his election?"
For now Trump is clearly eager to take credit for the surge in markets to record highs, as well as the associated surge in consumer confidence, both of which however have been driven by market hopes that Trump will reflate assets, something which was clearly lost on the latest UMichigan consumer confidence survey which showed US inflation expectations are the lowest on record. We doubt he will be as vocal when the hangover from the recent rally finally hits, unless of course, stocks manage to last the next four years without any corrections, an otherwise laughable prospect which however in this strange "new abnormal", has to be taken quite seriously.
Thursday, November 17, 2016
The Markets Were Projected To Decline Due To Trump Election, Boy Were They Wrong!
SHOCK: 1 Week After Trump Elected, Dollar Skyrockets to 14-Year High
Following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 election, doom and gloom prophecies peddled by liberal lunatics melted away rapidly, leaving the vision of a glorious new America where the value of the dollar was higher than it had been in 14 years.
As reported Wednesday by Reuters, the value of a dollar had “hit a 14-year high against a basket of (competing) currencies,” including the euro, the yen, the pound and the franc, among others.
Likewise, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a collection of the world’s top competing currencies, had risen to 100.53, a high not seen since 2003. And the stock market ended the previous week with some of its highest gains in years.
While this portended well for the United States, it had the potential to be very disadvantageous for the nations of Europe — particularly the leeches.
“The world’s interest rates have been dragged higher by the U.S. yield curve, creating the risk that interest rates may be too high for the still-fragile economies in Europe and emerging markets,” explained Stephen Jen of hedge fund Eurizon SLJ Capital.
The reason for the sudden spike in value reportedly lay with Trump’s proposals for boosting the U.S. economy. Plans such as those to cut taxes and boost infrastructure spending were expected to serve as a much-needed boon to President Barack Obama’s ailing economy.
Or said in another way, “The narrative on the dollar is strong,” as was stated by Simon Smith, chief economist at FXPro.
“A move higher in interest rates next month is now a near dead cert, with the implied path for rates next year also moving higher and providing further support for the dollar,” he added.
All was finally well with the U.S. economy — or at least its trajectory, assuming Trump were to implement his full agenda — and there was nothing the naysayers could do to stop all the winning that Trump had predicted.
H/T Yahoo News
What do you think about this?
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
Is The Stock Market In Trouble?
The following article is the opinion of the author only and not meant to be a prediction of future events. Prior to making any financial decisions, one should consult legal, financial and accounting professionals to obtain their opinions and recommendations. Dollar Vigilante is not related to nor does Conservative Musings get any benefit (financial or other) from the site. The article is published to present ideas that are in and outside the norm.
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DEUTSCHE BANK ANALYST SAYS A MARKET SHOCK IS THE ONLY WAY OUT
We don’t know if the internet is just enabling us to hear things we previously didn’t hear… of if this is the most predicted stock-market crash in history!
It seems barely a day goes by now where someone hasn’t jumped on our bandwagon and is predicting, or calling for, a major crash.
The latest is Dominic Konstam, global head of interest rates research at Deutsche Bank.
To be precise, he isn’t so much predicting a crash (or shock as he calls it) in the stock market, but is actually saying that it is the only way the worldwide economy can move forward from its current predicament.
He recently said, “Without an external economic shock it is hard to see policymakers being prepared to take dramatic, fiscal action to jumpstart the global economy and bounce it out of a financial repression defined by low and falling real yields to one that at least initially is defined by rising nominal yields through higher inflation expectations.”
He continued, “Ironically the shock that is needed would require a collapse in risk assets for policymakers to then really panic and attempt dramatic fiscal stimulus.”
As of this moment the US stock market is continuing to hit new highs… to the puzzlement of many.
Even establishment bulls like Barron’s are beginning to question how the stock market can be rising in the current environment.
In an article entitled, “Truly Bizarre: Nasdaq Hits New High, Dow Finishes Up This Week Despite Downer Retail Sales” Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg calls the triple highs “bizarre.”
He stated, “This run to new highs in the US stock market is bizarre seeing as the profit picture remains as muddled as ever. This is definitely not an earnings-based rally, It’s certainly not a recipe for long-term stability either.”
The truth is that the suppression of interest rates for the last eight years has not made the economy stronger. It has made it weaker. And the torrent of money printing has only caused a stock and bond bubble that, according to Konstam, needs to be popped if the economy is going to be salvaged.
And, with the US government doubling its debt in just the last eight years alone, it means that interest rates cannot rise without officially bankrupting the US government. I say “officially” because it is already far beyond bankrupt. The last time the US government paid off a penny of its debt was in the 1950s and it just survives by going into more debt at lower and lower interest rates now.
We currently have fake money printing propping up a fake economy backed by fake government statistics.
We can see this fakery in the most recent jobs report where the US added over 250,000 jobs in July. It was just lies, though. These jobs were simply “seasonal adjustment” statistics added by government bureaucrats.
What’s the reality? About a million fewer people with jobs, not an addition of 255,000. What “jobs” are available tend to center around unproductive government work and the new socialist medical “care” system that many are already saying is bankrupt. Then there are ”temp jobs” and “leisure & hospitality” which are mostly restaurant service jobs whose clients are mostly broke Americans purchasing McDonald s on credit cards with the hope that the economy is “recovering” and they can one day pay it back.
These monetary-driven markets have absolutely no relationship to underlying reality. The world is in a depression, not a recovery and corporate profits are going down not up.
When you have a Deutsche Bank analyst stating that a crash, or “shock” is needed to fix things… that’s a pretty bad sign.
Especially considering Deutsche Bank itself hangs by a thread currently, with profits down 99% in the last year and its share price cut in half as the buzzards circle.
Deutsche Bank may be the final piece that brings the whole fake edifice down. Today’s jury-rigged construction of Keynesian, central planning, communist style monetary production and related financial market debasement can’t last much longer.
We’ve stated since last year to prepare for the worst. And, we’ve seen three major market crashes since. Each time, markets have bubbled back up as a result of more money printing and continued interest-rate suppression, which has now done the impossible and gone negative in many countries. It can’t go on forever and we don’t think it will go on much longer at all.
Fortunately, if you anticipate what’s going on, there are ways to protect yourself and even profit from it. That’s what we have done here at TDV, gaining 200% in the last year for our subscriber’s portfolio.
In fact, as of last week, our gold stock portfolio is up almost 200% year-over-year without leverage. Our gold/silver bullion positions are +35% and bitcoin is +120%, and our trading service has produced big wins, as well. You can participate in our success through the TDV newsletter (subscribe here). We can show you how to position yourself profitably for the end of the larger “bull” market, which is a paper-thin monetary one.
You don’t have to go it alone. As a subscriber, you have access to thousands of other subscribers across the world who can help you take the steps you need to survive and prosper during these increasingly difficult times.
Whether a collapse is imminent, or is being planned or is just “necessary”, like Deutsche Bank’s analyst says, volatile and dangerous times for capital are ahead.
Stick with us here at The Dollar Vigilante as we help you to navigate successfully through it.
Anarcho-Capitalist. Libertarian. Freedom fighter against mankind’s two biggest enemies, the State and the Central Banks. Jeff Berwick is the founder of The Dollar Vigilante, CEO of TDV Media & Services and host of the popular video podcast, Anarchast. Jeff is a prominent speaker at many of the world’s freedom, investment and gold conferences including his own,Anarchapulco, as well as regularly in the media including CNBC, CNN and Fox Business.
Friday, September 18, 2015
No Wonder The Fed Is NOT Raising Rates!
The following article is based on the author's opinions. Conservative Musings does not endorse or recommend any products or opinions. Before making any financial decisions, you should consult financial, accounting and legal professionals.T
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FEDERAL RESERVE KEEPS INTEREST RATES AT 0%… AGAIN!
The Federal Reserve has just announced that its target for the federal funds rate will be kept at 0%. It has now been at 0% since December 16, 2008.
I stated as far back as 2010 (and often since) that the Federal Reserve can never allow interest rates to rise again due to the massive amount of debt that this system has created. Most people called me crazy.
Since the financial crisis in 2008, which was what prompted the Federal Reserve to take such an extreme measure of lowering rates to 0%, the total debt of the US government has nearly doubled.
In 2008, the US government closed their fiscal year with $10,024,724,896,912 in debt. That’s $10 trillion.
What is the total US government debt now? Well, actually, no one knows. On March 13th of this year the total debt hit the “debt ceiling” mandated by Congress when it stood at $18,112,975,000,000.
On July 30, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew sent a letter to the leaders of Congress informing them that he was extending a “debt issuance suspension period” through October 30.
That suspension still remains in effect. In the meantime they siphon money from other areas (including pensions and other entitlements) to remain afloat. And, as of today the total debt officially issued by the US government remains at $18.1 trillion. It it were not frozen it would be approximately $18.5 trillion or higher at this time… which means total US govt debt has nearly doubled in the last seven years and has more than doubled since it stood at $9 trillion in 2007.
And herein is why the Fed can never raise rates significantly (more than 1-2%) without collapsing the whole system.
If, for example, they were to allow rates to rise to a very, very low number, like 3% that would entail unknowable wreckage. Certainly the US housing market would be wiped out… which would lead to the banks being wiped out… which would mean 2008 again but far worse due to the massive amount of debt added to the system since then.
And if the Fed were to move to a 3% interest rate that would mean government bonds currently offering a 2.5% yield would have to offer well over 5%. But at even just 5% that would mean interest payments being paid by the US government would be $900 billlion… or nearly $1 trillion per year.
The total amount the US government takes from its “free” citizens is currently near $3 trillion. Which means, even an interest rate rise to 3% would have the US government paying out more than 30% of its tax “revenue” just to cover interest payments alone. Not to mention that the rate hike would cause such a depression, like in 2008 but far worse, that tax receipts would plummet… likely meaning that nearly every dollar of tax revenue would go to pay interest and there would be $0 to spend on its expenditures that currently cost $3.8 trillion (2014).
In other words, if the Federal Reserve wants to keep the economy and the US government afloat for even a little while longer they will have to keep interest rates at or near zero into perpetuity.
Which is what I have been saying for years.
Consider this, the last time the Federal Reserve raised rates was over nine years ago. Back then, The Dollar Vigilante was still four years from being started, there was no such thing as a smartphone and no one had heard of that little startup, Facebook.
Today, Janet Yellen was asked if the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates at 0% forever. She responded, “I can’t completely rule it out but really that’s an extreme downside risk that in no way is near the center of my outlook.”
She can’t completely rule it out? She can’t completely rule out that the Fed may never raise interest rates again? That’s very telling!
The markets were flat up until the announcement today as the entire financial world waited to hear what Janet Yellen was going to do to them. The Dow has been up and down about 100 points and currently sits slightly negative at the time of this writing while gold and silver got a quick pop after the announcement and have stayed at those levels. What is perhaps of most interest is that in past times the Fed keeping rates at 0% have resulted in the markets rallying. This time markets faded on the announcement. You can only imagine what would have happened if they raised rates by 0.25%!
And so, we carry on down the same Keynesian path, for now, with ever building mal-investment and massive distortions in the economy. Only guaranteeing that when the next crisis comes it will be far worse.
With China selling US Treasuries like they were autographed photos of Donald Trump and Russia and numerous countries moving away from using the dollar this system is on increasingly shaky ground.
We will be telling subscribers of what we think the next big events will be that could really begin to topple the system (our next issue is due out on September 22 – you can subscribe here). Those events are coming up in the next few weeks and still have us very comfortable for our call on a fall financial crisis. After all, fall has not even begun yet. Keep your eyes peeled come September 23rd when we do enter into autumn and in the weeks following including the coming US government shutdown on October 1st.
The summer, especially August, with more than 20 stock market collapses globally including the Dow’s record intraday point drop of over 1,100 points still remains a harbinger of more chaos and crisis to come in the fall.
Anarcho-Capitalist. Libertarian. Freedom fighter against mankind’s two biggest enemies, the State and the Central Banks. Jeff Berwick is the founder of The Dollar Vigilante, CEO of TDV Media & Services and host of the popular video podcast, Anarchast. Jeff is a prominent speaker at many of the world’s freedom, investment and gold conferences including his own,Anarchapulco, as well as regularly in the media including CNBC, CNN and Fox Business.
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