Will The Economy Re-Elect Trump?

Will The Economy Recover From COVID-19?

Nearly 40% of the economy may vanish in Q2 because of COVID-19, but then do something surprising

Brian Sozzi

Editor-at-Large

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Yahoo Finance•May 28, 2020

 

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2.1 million Americans file for unemployment benefits

The S&P 500 has crossed the 3,000 level again and investors are clearly riding high on hope for a second half economic recovery post the worst of COVID-19.

But that doesn’t mean the market is immune to a pullback this summer primarily because the economic data will likely continue to be horrible. Remember bulls, the U.S. economy has been kicked in the face by the pandemic, and a rebound won’t happen overnight simply because states are reopening. Corporate sales and profits remain under severe strain, sending many off to explore bankruptcy or cut thousands of workers even with quarantines being lifted.

“We think that the reported unemployment rate may be around as high as 20% in May,” Barclays chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen warned on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. The unemployment rate in April increased by 10.3 percentage points to 14.7%.

Gapen believes the U.S. economy may contract a whopping 40% annualized in the second quarter, then surprisingly grow by 25% in the third quarter and 8% in the fourth quarter.

Part of Gapen’s cautiousness on the economy in the second quarter stems from his outlook on the consumer, which comprises two-thirds of the U.S. economy as is often cited.

A woman shops for clothes Wednesday, May 27, 2020, in Los Angeles. California moved to further relax its coronavirus restrictions and help the battered economy. Retail stores, including those at shopping malls, can open at 50% capacity. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

“I think when we move into the third quarter, the savings rate will start coming down. All else equal, we are expecting the consumer to remain cautious. I think you will see a blend. Some return to normalcy, but it will take time,” Gapen explains. “Negative wealth is still at play. Equity markets are doing well, but the average household may not feel that. And I think that there will be caution and a preference for saving.”

To be sure, recent economic data warrants the markets taking a short-term breather.

Another 2.123 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending May 23. Over the past 10 weeks, more than 40 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance. U.S. durable goods orders tanked 17.2% in April, U.S. Commerce Department data showed Thursday. Durable goods dropped 16.6% in March.

Pending home sales in April fell 33.8% year over year, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That marked the biggest decline since January 2001.

“I think the market has priced in that April is probably the worst of the economic data,” explained Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye. “While it looks like the worst is behind us — which is great — we need to start to see more improvement.”

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and co-anchor of The First Trade at Yahoo Finance.

The Real Reason For The Extended Lockdown

This Is The Reason Dems Want To Dump Biden (Not The Obvious)

Reuters Poll: Biden's Lead Gone; Trump Better on Economy, Virus

Joe Biden (Mark Ralston/Getty Images)

Tuesday, 05 May 2020 09:42 PM

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Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump in popular support has eroded in recent weeks as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee struggles for visibility with voters during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday.

The opinion poll conducted Monday and Tuesday found 43% of registered voters said they would support Biden in the Nov. 3 presidential election, while 41% said they would back Trump. That makes the contest essentially a toss-up, as the results are within the poll's credibility interval.

Biden led by 6 percentage points in a similar poll last week and by 8 points in a poll that ran April 15-21.

The former vice president has been forced to run his presidential campaign from his Delaware home in keeping with restrictions aimed at combating the virus, which has killed more than 70,000 people in the United States and put 30 million people out of work.

By contrast, Trump has put himself at the helm of the U.S. pandemic response, with regular White House briefings until recently.

Some of Biden's most dominant recent headlines focused on a former U.S. Senate aide's allegation he sexually assaulted her in 1993. Biden said last week the alleged assault "never happened" and asked the Senate to make public any documents related to the accusation by Tara Reade, who worked as a staff assistant in Biden's Senate office from December 1992 to August 1993.

The political impact of the situation was not yet clear in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, which showed 53% of the American public said they were "somewhat" or "very" familiar with Reade's allegation.

According to the poll, 45% of Americans said Trump was better suited to create jobs, while 32% said Biden was the better candidate for that. That pushed Trump's advantage over Biden in terms of job creation to 13 points, compared with the Republican president's 6-point edge in a similar poll that ran in mid-April.

Thirty-seven percent said Trump was better leading the country's coronavirus response, while 35% preferred Biden. A similar poll in mid-April showed Biden had a slight edge over Trump when it came to the nation's response to the disease.

Overall, 42% of Americans said they approved of Trump's performance in office, and 53% said they disapproved. The president's popularity has remained relatively flat for more than a year.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 1,215 American adults, including 1,015 who identified as registered voters. It had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

© 2020 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.

The Econony Is Improving For Walmart Customers! This Is Great!

MAGA: Major Company Praises Trump's Economy

• 08/17/2018 
• Source: TTN
 
• by: TTN Staff

23 18 1  76

image: https://structurecms-staging-psyclone.netdna-ssl.com/client_assets/trumptrain/media/picture/5a57/e5d4/6970/2d2d/90ee/9200/content_1200px-Walmart_-_Blaine__MN_-_panoramio.jpg?1515709908

By Gabriel Vanslette, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=56802874

VOTE: New Trump Supreme Court Poll

Walmart executives have given the current economy orchestrated by President Trump huge praise. Reports indicate that Walmart executives believe this is the greatest economy for their customers in decades.

According to Breitbart:

Walmart executives believe that the economy is the best for their customers in decades, according to an analyst who spoke with Bloomberg News’ Joe Weisenthal.

Walmart is based in Bentonville, Ark., where 62.9 percent of voters were cast in favor of President Donald Trump in 2016. In July, Walmart was forced to pull an anti-Trump t-shirt from its shelves after customers threatened a boycott and expressed outrage.

Walmart may not agree with President Trump on everything, but it seems like they are enjoying the economic boom he has had a hand in creating.

Read more at http://trumptrainnews.com/articles/maga-major-company-praises-trump-s-economy#gITlA1XSyTHW0QIx.99

Trump Knows Which Way The Country Needs To Go

The Hits Just Keep Coming

Job growth up 200,000 in January, better than expectations, and wages up

• Nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 in January, beating analyst estimates, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent.
• More importantly, average hourly earnings increased 2.9 percent on an annualized basis, the best gain since the early days of the recovery in 2009.

Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom

Published 35 Mins Ago  Updated 2 Mins AgoCNBC.com

Nonfarm payrolls up 200,000 in January  27 Mins Ago | 01:51

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 200,000 in January and the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent, while wages saw their biggest jump since the end of the Great Recession, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a closely watched report from Friday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had been expecting jobs growth of 180,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged higher to 8.2 percent, the highest level since September.

In addition to the solid payroll growth, average hourly earnings were up 0.3 percent for the month, matching estimates and reflecting an annualized gain of 2.9 percent. That was the best since mid-2009 as the two-year economic slump was coming to a close. However, the average work week fell two-tenths to 34.3 hours.

Markets were unimpressed with the report, with stock futures continuing to point to a sharply lower open on Wall Street and bond yields rising.

"Overall, it was really fabulous," said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. "People are just looking for an excuse to sell."

The prospect of rising interest rates due to inflation pressures could be just that catalyst, he said.

"We've all talked for many years saying we're going to raise rates, that raising rates will be good for the economy," Kinahan added. "I find it quite odd that the narrative around the market has changed quite a bit."

The numbers come amid an expected acceleration in growth for the U.S. economy. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is expecting a GDP gain of 5.4 percent in the first quarter, which would be the best increase since the recovery began in mid-2009.

Within the jobs report, Wall Street and policymakers are watching wage numbers closely. While job gains have been solid and consistent, salary growth has been elusive. This report could change the narrative and might push the Fed to get more aggressive with interest rate hikes.

The report comes after a disappointing 160,000 in December (revised up from 148,000) and two days after ADP said private payrolls increased by 234,000. The November gain of 252,000 was cut from 252,000 to 216,000, making the net from the two revisions minus-24,000.

The household survey showed an even bigger gain in employment, with a gain of 409,000. The rolls of the unemployed grew by 108,000.

Construction reported by the biggest gain by sector with 36,000. Bars and restaurants added 31,000 and health care was up 21,000. Manufacturing also showed a gain of 15,000 and durable goods-related industries added 18,000.

"Perhaps the biggest positive surprise on hiring is the continued surge for the goods-producing sector with manufacturing and construction leading the way," said Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com's senior economic analyst.

While the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.7 percent, those counted as not in the labor force popped, jumping 153,000 to 95.7 million.

Jeff CoxFinance Editor