Contact Form

Name

Email *

Message *

Showing posts with label Standard and Poors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Standard and Poors. Show all posts

Thursday, March 3, 2016

Is The Bloom Coming Off The Rose?

Bill Gross: Banks 'Permanently Damaged' as Credit Expansion Ends

Image: Bill Gross: Banks 'Permanently Damaged' as Credit Expansion EndsBill Gross (Getty Images)
Thursday, 03 Mar 2016 08:38 AM
Financial companies will be hard-pressed to meet long-term growth expectations as decades of credit expansion come to an end and central-bank policies and tighter regulations squeeze profits, according to bond investor Bill Gross.
Banks such Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are trading far below their pre-crisis highs as the credit growth that has fueled the global economic expansion in the past appears to near its end, Gross said in his monthly outlook posted Thursday. The recent selloff in global bank stocks shows investors recognize that future returns on equity for the industry “will be much akin to a utility stock,” he said.
“Banking/finance seems to be either a screaming sector ready to be bought or a permanently damaged victim of write- offs, tighter regulation and significantly lower future margins,” wrote Gross, co-manager of the $1.26 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund. “I’ll vote for the latter.”
Gross likened the troubles of the financial system as a driver of economic growth to the inevitable demise of the sun. It’s a climate that’s also challenging for insurers and pension funds, according to the 71-year-old billionaire, who joined Janus in 2014 after decades at Pacific Investment Management Co.
Latest News Update
‘Like The Sun’
“You should be aware that our finance based economic system — which like the sun has provided life and productive growth for a long, long time — is running out of fuel and that its remaining time span is something less than 5 billion years,” he said.
The 89-member Standard &Poor’s 500 Financials Index was down 7.9 percent this year through yesterday, compared with a drop of 2.8 percent for the full S&P 500 Index.
Insurance companies may struggle to meet liabilities for storm, accident and death coverage because of slowing investment returns, he wrote. They “cannot cover claims as conveniently as they could in the past” because of smaller gains from stocks and bonds.

The low-rate environment has also made it harder for pension funds to meet obligations in places such as Puerto Rico and Detroit, he wrote. And households are struggling to save for college, retirement or medical emergencies.
Along with bank stocks, Gross recommends avoiding high- yield debt and “momentum driven investments” such as German Bunds and long-term U.S. Treasuries, which can become volatile at a time when central bankers in Europe and Japan are pushing interest rates into negative territory.
© Copyright 2016 Bloomberg News. All rights reserved.


Read more: Gross Says Banks 'Permanently Damaged' as Credit Expansion Ends
Important: Can you afford to Retire? 

Thursday, November 28, 2013

More Outlay By Big Banks Due To Mortgage Mess

Mortgage-related Cases May Cost US Banks up to $105 Billion More:S&P

Wednesday, 27 Nov 2013 07:02 AM

Share:
More . . .
A    A   |
   Email Us   |
   Print   |
The largest U.S. banks may need to pay out up to an additional $105 billion to settle legacy mortgage-related issues, but have a capital cushion that would help them absorb these losses, according to a report by ratings agency Standard & Poor's.
Eight of the top U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., may have an additional exposure of between $56.5 billion and $104 billion in potential mortgage-related payouts, the S&P report said.

Banks have faced a new wave of lawsuits as the government investigates their role in the packaging and sale of mortgage-backed securities comprising of bad loans in the run up to the financial crisis.
"Notably, mortgage-related litigation has recently gotten a second wind and has expanded beyond investor claims," S&P credit analysts led by Stuart Plesser wrote in the report.
The government has been seeking to hold firms liable under the Financial Institutions, Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of 1989 (FIRREA), which it uses to recover civil penalties for losses to federally insured financial institutions.
The largest banks, combined, could have a $155 billion buffer to absorb the losses and the banks' buildup in capital would help them withstand potential legal costs, S&P said.
The increase in litigation reserves significantly weighed on third-quarter profit for U.S. banks, the federal banking regulator said on Tuesday.
JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, reported its first quarterly loss under Chief Executive Jamie Dimon in October, as it recorded more than $9 billion of expenses to build its litigation reserves.
It agreed to pay $4.5 billion earlier this month to settle claims by investors who lost money on mortgage-backed securities.
Bank of America agreed to a $8.5 billion settlement in June 2011 with 22 institutional investors. The deal is still awaiting court approval.
S&P, however, said that while an unexpected legal expense could result in the weakening of a bank's business model, it had considered heightened legal issues into its ratings.
"Despite the substantial legal costs already incurred and the raft of new legal issues, we currently don't expect legal settlements to result in negative rating actions for the U.S. banks with the largest legal exposure," the S&P report said.
© 2013 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.


Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Hold The Presses, Housing Market Not As Good As Being Sold

Yale's Robert Shiller: Don't Be Fooled by 'Off and Running' Housing Data

Tuesday, 26 Nov 2013 02:03 PM
By Dan Weil
Share:
More . . .
A    A   |
   Email Us   |
   Print   |
The 13.3 percent annual gain for the S&P/Case-Shiller Index of home prices for September, a 7 ½-year high, indicates at first glance that the housing market is rolling merrily along, says Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller of Yale University.

"It's kind of remarkable. If you look at a plot, it looks like we're off and running," he told CNBC. "I say looks like. I don't know if we really are, but right now we are."

Some market undertones aren't so rosy, Shiller says. While prices are up, existing home sales fell 3.2 percent in October.


"I've done a questionnaire survey about home buyer attitudes, and I don't find that they're as excited about the housing market as the price increases seem to suggest," he said.

"It may be more of an unusual demand from investors that's driving the market now or it's the pullback from the large number of foreclosures we've had before. I just don't see a lot of home buyer excitement, expectations."

Surprisingly enough, Shiller doesn't see affordability as a major issue. "I tend to think that the market is driven more by psychology than any careful calculations than affordability."

Shiller measures homebuyer sentiment, as do others. "I just don't see evidence that people think we're launching out on some great new era," he said.

"That's what people thought in the early 2000s. Now they're looking at the problems in Congress and the fact that Fannie [Mae] and Freddie [Mac] are propping up the market, and we have bills to wipe them out. People are not so excited or sure about the future."

One major issue for the housing market in recent months has been the purchase of houses by major investment groups such as private equity titan Blackstone. They are buying the homes as investments, of course, seeking to earn income through rentals and ultimately selling the houses.

"The word seems to be from them that they're long-term investors, but I suspect they're not," Shiller said.

"I think what they've learned — I'm guessing, not from any direct information — they've learned the short-term momentum in the market. But as soon as it's weakening, they'll exit. We can't trust momentum in the housing market anymore."

Many housing experts sounded a bullish note after the S&P/Case-Shiller data were released Tuesday.

"Housing demand has clearly improved this year," Ryan Wang, an economist at HSBC Securities USA, told Bloomberg.

"The housing market has benefited from fewer foreclosures over the last year, the share of distressed housing transactions is back to pre-crisis levels, and that has helped to boost home prices in many parts of the country."


Related Stories:
© 2013 Moneynews. All rights reserved.


Sunday, October 20, 2013

Will Government Ever Realize Their Shenanigans Only Hurt Credit Ratings

S&P: US Still Not Ready to Win Back AAA Rating

Friday, 18 Oct 2013 08:16 AM
By Michelle Smith
Share:
More . . .
A    A   |
   Email Us   |
   Print   |
If the United States wants to regain its AAA credit rating from Standard & Poor's, lawmakers have to stop dragging the nation to the brink of crisis.

S&P, like most of the nation, expected a last minute deal to raise the debt ceiling, and Washington came through. But its reckless governing style is not one that warrants the nation having a stellar credit rating, Marie Cavanaugh, S&P lead analyst on US sovereign ratings, explained to CNBC.

The United States' credit rating was downgraded in 2011, "predominantly because of the extreme brinksmanship one sees," she noted.



"There are many credit strengths in the United States," she continued. "But the constraints in our opinion are this brinkmanship which relates to the very unusual budgeting strategy where by the spending decisions and the funding decisions are separate. That's not the case for most governments."

Washington's political antics create self-inflicted wounds, often aggravating the nation's problems, but in the end there remain no long-term solutions. As with any entity, the United States' credit rating is based on more than a single factor, and Cavanaugh explained that the government's money management is also on S&P's radar.

The United States currently has a AA+ rating with a stable outlook, but the debt is still "fairly high," she said.

"It's actually stabilizing in our opinion over the next few years, but then we'll begin to edge upward without additional fiscal measures," Cavanaugh added.

At a hearing last month before the Joint Economic Committee, Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi, put forth a similar assessment.

"While the fiscal situation should be stable through the end of this decade, the long-term fiscal outlook remains disconcerting," he testified.

He said a grand bargain with comprehensive entitlement and tax reform is likely too much to ask for, but he urged that some meaningful action be taken.

"If Congress does not make significant changes to the entitlement programs and tax code, rising healthcare costs and an aging population will swamp the budget in the 2020s and 2030s" he warned.

Thursday, Chinese rating agency, Dagong, downgraded the U.S. credit rating from A to A- while maintaining a negative outlook on sovereign credit.

Dagong explained the issue of debt outpacing fiscal income and GDP has not been addressed, according to Reuters.

Therefore, the U.S. "government is still approaching the verge of default crisis, a situation that cannot be substantially alleviated in the foreseeable future" the agency concluded.


Related Stories:

S&P: Shutdown Has Cost Economy $24 Billion, Cut US Growth

Analysis: Washington Becomes the Biggest Risk to the US Economy
© 2013 Moneynews. All rights reserved.



Urgent: Should Obamacare Be Repealed? Vote Here Now!

Saturday, September 7, 2013

Double Dealin With The Government

Anyone who pays attention to the government, would know that the S&P suit, is 

retribution for the downgrade by the company of the US economy.  Our leaders 

(especially this administration) say one thing and do another. They want companies to be

upright and "do the right thing" however, when they do and it involves the government, 

as in this case, they become  unbridled.


When S&P downgraded the economy, we knew this would happen and it sent a shiver up 

our spine. We feared the use of government  power would telegraph a message to the 

rest of the industry. So far it has worked!


If a private company used the same technique against a rating agency, the government 

would jump down their throat in a nanosecond.  Why should the Administration be

treated any differently?  This double standard stinks, but so does this group of goofs

who want us to believe they are doing what is best for us.


As Sarah Palin asked "how's this hopey-changey thing working out for you?"  It isn't working

out for the US. She was so right!


Conservative Tom





S&P to Fight for Evidence U.S. Suit Was Political Payback

Standard & Poor’s is trying to show it was unfairly singled out in a $5 billion fraud lawsuit 18 months after it downgraded U.S. sovereign debt. Getting the government to provide supporting evidence will prove difficult.
McGraw Hill Financial Inc. (MHFI) and its S&P unit are seeking information from the Justice Department about the decision to target the company in the first federal case against a ratings firm for grades related to the credit crisis. S&P also wants a look at the government’s investigative files on other raters as part of a defense strategy to show it was unfairly sued.
Standard & Poor's signage is displayed outside of the company's building in New York. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
Sponsored Links
If you owe less than $729k, you probably qualify for ...
Send checks through your phone. GoBank handles it all...
Pay what you want for your monthly membership fee. Cl...
Buy a link
S&P in the coming months will seek to defeat government attempts to shield internal discussions and evidence as the case heads for a first round of procedural deadlines that will determine what evidence eventually goes before the jury.
Even with the judge in the case sounding sympathetic in court to S&P’s desire to know why the U.S. sued it and not other ratings firms, it’s highly unlikely the government will be forced to reveal its internal discussions on the matter, said Wayne Gross, a former federal prosecutor now with Greenberg Gross LLP in Costa Mesa, California.
“It is important that the government be able to conduct investigations confidentially to protect the subjects of investigations who may never be charged,” Gross said in a phone interview.
Having lost a pretrial bid to get the case dismissed in federal court in Santa Ana, California, S&P now must prepare a defense that will persuade a jury to reject allegations that it defrauded investors by falsely claiming its ratings were independent and free of conflicts of interest.

Retribution Theory

U.S. District Judge David Carter hinted at a retribution theory at a July 29 court hearing, saying that S&P may seek to interview government officials about whether they sued because of the company’s downgrade of U.S. debt two years ago. While the judge described himself as a believer in transparency with a “pretty wide open” philosophy about pretrial evidence sharing, he made no promises S&P will get what it wants.
“You’re going to have a very difficult time with some of the government agencies,” Carter told S&P’s lawyers.
U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said Feb. 5, the day after the complaint was filed against S&P, that it was unrelated to the downgrade. Holder made the comment in Washington as some financial professionals said publicly the targeting of S&P looked suspicious because the company’s two primary competitors, Moody’s Corp. (MCO) and Fitch Ratings, awarded the same top grades to troubled mortgage bonds and didn’t downgrade the U.S. debt.
“There’s no connection between the two,” Holder said. “They did what they did, assessing what the creditworthiness was of this nation. We looked at the facts, the law and the investigation” and determined the lawsuit was “appropriate.”

‘Slashing,’ ‘Smashing’

S&P lawyer John Keker, the founding partner of San Francisco-based Keker & Van Nest LLP, may not let Holder have the last word. Keker, whose self-described approach to white-collar crime trials and corporate litigation is “slashing and smashing,” said at the July 29 hearing the company’s legal team will eventually seek to question a number of high-level government officials at the Justice Department as well as at the U.S. Treasury and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
“We anticipate highly contentious motion practice,” Keker told the judge, adding that he would focus on getting documents first and interrogating officials later. “They’re going to fight like mad.”
The Justice Department is seeking as much as $5 billion in civil penalties for losses to federally insured financial institutions that relied on S&P’s investment-grade ratings for mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations.

Central Theme

It will be a central theme of S&P’s defense to convince jurors that the government isn’t acting as an advocate of the interest of the American people in this case, said John Hueston, a former federal prosecutor now with Irell & Manella LLP in Los Angeles.
Gathering evidence about the government’s motivation to bring the lawsuit might also put S&P in a better position to negotiate a settlement, Hueston said in a phone interview.
“It is a brilliant move to try to obtain documents that go as high as possible,” Hueston said. “If the government becomes uncomfortable and it becomes a trial of the Justice Department, it could be a highly effective leverage strategy.”
While the congressionally appointed Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission blamed all three of the leading U.S. credit raters for inflated ratings that helped cause the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, Moody’s and Fitch said after the Justice Department filed its complaint against S&P that they had no reason to believe they would be sued too.

AAA Rating

S&P has said nothing in court filings drawing a link between the lawsuit against it and its August 2011 decision to downgrade the U.S.’s 60-year-running AAA credit rating to AA+ with a negative outlook.
S&P said at the time that the Obama administration and Congress failed to take sufficient steps to reduce the record budget deficit. Moody’s and Fitch the same month affirmed their AAA ratings. All three firms are based in New York.
The Treasury Department said S&P had made a $2 trillion error in its analysis. S&P said there was no mistake and the discussion hinged on which baseline assumption should be used from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
S&P’s move roiled the markets, contributing to a global stock-market rout that erased about $6 trillion in value from July 26 to Aug. 12, 2011. The firm changed its outlook for the U.S. to “stable” in June from “negative,” citing “tentative improvements” in the debt burden.

Credit Crisis

The government alleged in its Feb. 4 complaint against S&P that the firm knowingly downplayed the risk on securities before the credit crisis in a desire to win business from investment banks that sought the highest possible ratings to sell them.
In other probes of abuses that fueled the collapse of the U.S. housing market starting in 2007 and led global credit markets to freeze in 2008, the Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission this month sued Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp., the nation’s second-biggest lender, while New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the biggest U.S. bank, disclosed that it’s under federal criminal investigation for practices tied to to sales of mortgage-backed bonds.
S&P’s first line of defense failed when it asked Carter to dismiss the lawsuit on the grounds that its statements about the objectivity of its ratings were so generic that reasonable investors wouldn’t have relied on them.

‘S&P’s Objectivity’

“If no investor believed in S&P’s objectivity,” the judge wrote in a July 16 ruling, “is S&P asserting that, as a matter of law, the company’s credit ratings service added absolutely zero material value as a predictor of creditworthiness?”
The company also has argued that its ratings were the same as those of its competitors and that the government’s complaint failed to specify what the correct ratings should have been.
S&P said in a July 24 filing that it would seek transcripts of all testimony the government took in its investigation, all materials about interactions the Justice Department had with other federal and state agencies about its investigation, and about “the government’s decision to authorize the filing of this litigation.”
The Justice Department’s initial discovery will focus on identifying those CDOs and mortgage-backed securities that it believes were affected by the alleged fraud and that will serve best as evidence to present to a jury when the case goes to trial, government lawyers said in a July 27 filing. The judge gave the government a Nov. 18 deadline to complete that task.
Carter set a Dec. 16 hearing to determine how much additional time both sides need for discovery. The government has proposed a trial start date of Feb. 17, 2015.
Keker was asked by the judge at the July 29 hearing about the prospects for a settlement.
“The impediment is that the government has a view of this case that makes it impossible to settle,” Keker said.
The case is U.S. v. McGraw-Hill Cos., 13-cv-00779 U.S. District Court, Central District of California (Santa Ana).