The Frog In The Pan

I feel like the frog that is placed in the pan of cool water which is slowly heated. I will not jump out because I feel comfortable. If I had been plunked into the pan of heated water, I would have bolted out of the pan without thought.

The pan in my analogy is the United States and Obama is slowly turning up the heat. We have seen the takeover of banks, autos and now the health care of America. Don't be fooled, this health care plan is just the first step to nationalization which I predict will happen either before 2014 or just afterward. There are two reasons for my negativity. First, the plan's penalty for not having insurance is meaningless. Rationally, would you rather pay a $695 penalty or $1200 per year for insurance? Most would rather pay the penalty especially since I can get insurance anytime I get sick or hurt. Remember there is no pre-existing clause after September. So I get sick, I go to the insurance company or cooperative of my choice and say "give me some of that insurance" and they have to. What is the incentive to purchase insurance when you are not
sick?

Employers also will do the math. Do they provide health insurance for their employees which might cost the corporation $7000-$12000 or more per year or pay the penalty of $2000? If the corporation does provide the insurance, their employees can go to the insurance companies or cooperatives and get their coverage. From a purely economic analysis, the companies are going to do what is in the best interests of the stockholders which is not to provide insurance but to pay the penalty.

Secondly, employer paid insurance will drop off significantly in the next 4 years to a point that Congress will wake to the horror that most people are using the cooperatives and/or personally owned insurance. To remain profitable, largely due to the lack of screening for pre-existing issues, the premium increases for all insurance will rise by double digits. To answer complaints by the populace Congress will declare the experiment of a quasi government/insurance company solution a failure and to declare that "we must control costs and the only entity that can do that is the government."

Whereupon Congress will create an American Health Plan entirely run and administered by the government. All those entities who bought into the current health plan namely AARP, the insurance companies, hospitals and doctors will lose their power and will be dictated to by the government. The heat in the pan just went up some more.

Agree? Disagree?