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Monday, May 30, 2011

Is it Medicare or Mediscare?

The upcoming debate over the budget has many components with Medicare only being part of the issue. However,  it is a major part of the problem.  Whether the solution is the Ryan Plan or something else, we must start the discussion. Sitting on the sidelines and playing ostrich is NOT the answer. 

The following article from Israel Commentary discusses the political back and forth that is currently part of the discussion. To demagogue the issue is not the way solve the problem.  So in light of this blog's goal to have an open conversation, we are open to your suggestions.  Please post them and we will forward to our congressmen/women.

Here is the article:










Redacted from the article, “Beyond Mediscare”

By Yuval Levin

The Weekly Standard, May 30, 2011

Do House Republicans want to kill the elderly? If you listen to the left these days, you’d certainly think so. Last week, a liberal advocacy group called “The Agenda Project”—which claims to advance “rational, effective ideas in the public debate”—released an ad showing a look-alike of House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan pushing an old woman in a wheelchair off a cliff. “Is America beautiful without Medicare?” the ad inquires of viewers. “Ask Paul Ryan and his friends in Congress.”

Nor is it only rabid interest groups that have succumbed to such appeals. Kathleen Sebelius, secretary of health and human services said, more or less, the same thing earlier this month. When asked about the House Republican budget’s approach to Medicare, Sebelius said that, under the plan, “If you run out of the government voucher and then you run out of your own money, you’re left to scrape together charity care, go without care, die sooner. There really aren’t a lot of options.”

The president himself has come pretty close to this view. The Republican budget, Obama said in a speech at George Washington University last month says  “instead of guaranteed health care, you will get a voucher. And  if that voucher isn’t worth enough to buy the insurance that’s available in the open marketplace, well, tough luck—you’re on your own. Put simply, it ends Medicare as we know it.”

Clearly, the GOP Medicare reform has struck a nerve. Democrats seem unwilling to speak about it honestly. Maybe they know that the facts do not support their case.

Let’s start with “Medicare as we know it.” According to the Congressional Budget Office and Medicare’s trustees, the program has a long-term unfunded liability of more than $30 trillion. It’s about a decade from insolvency. The trustees’ latest annual report, released on May 13, notes that the Medicare trust fund is projected to run out of money five years sooner than was projected last year. Its current trajectory would swallow up the federal budget. Taxes could not be raised high or fast enough to keep up with its growth without crushing the economy.

The Democrats cannot deny the figures, but their solution is to let the crisis come. President Obama’s budget offered nothing beyond Obamacare as a solution. In an extraordinary letter affixed to the recent trustees’ report, Medicare’s chief actuary noted that Obamacare’s approach to the program—price controls determined by a board of experts and devoid of market-based reforms that could help health care providers improve their efficiency—would actually exacerbate Medicare’s troubles.

The Republican budget offers precisely such market-based reforms. It proposes not just to reduce the growth rate of Medicare spending, but to introduce consumer pressures into the system that would create financial incentives for providers to work more efficiently and reduce the growth of the health care costs that are at the heart of the problem.

Currently Medicare recipients play no part in determining who gets paid and how much, and have no sense of what their health care costs. Providers have no financial incentive to deliver better care at lower prices. And price controls that would reduce what Medicare pays per service (the Obamacare solution) would only create an incentive for providers to supply a greater volume of services to make up the difference. That is exactly what price controls have done in the past—drive efficiency down and costs up.

The House Republican proposal would change Medicare’s counterproductive design. It would leave today’s seniors and those now 55 or older in the current system, since they have planned their retirements around it. But everyone younger than that would join a redesigned Medicare when they retire.

Rather than pay all providers a set fee directly, seniors would use the money (in the form of a premium support payment that would start at current Medicare rates and grow with inflation) to choose insurance plans from a menu of guaranteed private coverage options. Poor seniors and those in the worst health would get significantly greater support, while the wealthiest would receive less.

And seniors would be buying guaranteed insurance with limits on out of pocket costs, not paying directly for care. Sebelius’s notion that they would simply “run out” of money if they got sick is nothing more than fear-mongering.


For politicians, it is also a choice between reforming a program that seniors are comfortable with and leaving it alone despite its fatal problems. Republicans have chosen to deal with that difficulty by leaving current seniors with all the benefits they are accustomed to in the current program and reforming it for the next generation.
Democrats have chosen to deal with it by pretending there is no problem, falsely insisting that any reform will harm today’s seniors, and leaving a colossal disaster for the next generation. Republicans, in other words, have chosen a policy solution that carries political risk while the Democrats have opted for political advantage

17 comments:

  1. Here is a report from a group of experts who actually know what they are talking about...

    http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/0826_btc/0826_btc_execsummary.pdf

    I gave you the link to their Executive Summary. It summarizes their four recommendations. There is also a longer version that goes into detail on each point, including proposed legislation.

    My conclusion from it is that the single most important reform we need in the healthcare delivery system is to get rid of the "fee-for-services" model, because it pays for anything and everything, regardless of proven effectiveness of the drug or medical procedures. Medicare should not pay for highly expensive and experimental treatments/drugs. If a patient wants these things and can afford them, they should pay for them with their own funds.

    The ACA will begin to get a control on these and other costs. According to the latest Medicare trustee's report, over the next ten years, Medicare spending per beneficiary is projected to grow by 3.0 percent a year, which is less than the average of 7.8 percent a year over the previous decade and also less than the projected rate of growth of private health care costs.  As a result, the HI program’s 75-year shortfall is 0.79 percent of taxable payroll. That is a considerable improvement over the 3.88 percent of payroll that the trustees estimated prior to the ACA (otherwise known as "Obamacare"). 

    On reverse side of the equation, the health insurance companies have raised insurance premiums by 130% over the last 10 years. The inflation rate was down to 1.64% in 2010 compared to 3.38% ten years ago. Yet, in all these healthcare debates, the health insurance companies escape "under the radar." Can anybody explain that?

    --David

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  2. Dont understand how you can be so stuck up about the medcare thingy.. Your nation is about to fall apart, why dont you shed some light upon that matter?!

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  3. In regard to Blue Eyed's comment, I would agree that our nation is having severe problems and I think that I have posted about that before. My point with medicare is that is part of the problem, financially. Medicare, Medicaid, prescription drugs and D are significant problems and I will address all of them over time. One posting does not do it.

    In addition to the financial issues, we have moral issues which are making the country fall apart. The virtual acceptance of ILLEGAL immigration, of a certain level of acceptable crime, of a lack of morality both personally and business, of a lack of leadership by our national leaders and of an insatiable appetite for celebrity all are serious signals of a country not on the rise but falling.

    It does scare me that the greatest representative government in the world is committing suicide. It should not have to be, but I fear unless the individual citizen finally comes to this realization, it will be too late.

    I promise that I will write more, soon. In the meantime, please continue to comment, I love the suggestions and concerns.

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  4. Cutting benefits is only one way to reduce health care costs. There are other ways, and better ways, to do it. For example, preventive health care costs money on the front end, but saves far more on the back end when the person shows up at the emergency room with major complications that preventive care would have handled much more cheaply. That is a VERY expensive way to deliver health care, and you and I end up paying for it. We need to find ways to provide basic health care to more people, not less (which would be the result with Ryan's Medicare plan). We are paying for all these emergency room visits by uninsured patients, because hospitals, doctors, and insurance companies pass those costs to us through higher prices and premiums.

    In this whole debate over healthcare costs, the private insurance companies escape under the radar. Inflation has not increased over the last decade, but they have raised insurance premiums by 130%. They are not interested in cost control. They are interested in profits. That is why our health care costs per capita is double the costs in other rich countries, and other countries get as good, or better, health outcomes by most statistical measures. The reason we are not there already is that the health industry has enormous influence over politicians through lobbying and campaign contributions. They came out in force during the debate over ACA to kill the "public option" that would have given them some very serious market competition -- which would have reduced our premium costs and their profits. I expect you won't agree. That's fine.

    --David

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  5. I am in the insurance business and must contradict some of what David says as to preventative care. The initial selling point for HMOs when they started in the 1980s, was that due to the low cost of seeing a doctor (at that time $2) the patient would go sooner. Doctor usage went through the roof and yes, they were seeing many more patients, however, according to some studies I have seen overall health has not improved, especially if you look at the statistics provided by the Obama Administration.

    So in my mind that model really has not worked, so what else do we do. Do we cover everyone, require them to have coverage and fine them if they don't, well that did not work in Massachusetts. Costs have gone through the roof and the plan really is too young to find any valid correlation to trend lines. Do we just accept that costs are out of line and put up with it? I don't think so.

    You mention the public option which in my mind was a trojan horse attack. It would have driven the private insurance companies out of business because there is no way a for profit company can compete with one that is government supported. That never has worked and never will.

    I think one of the real answers to health care is to allow insurance companies to compete across borders and to remove the government controls that already exist on them. For example, Blue Cross of Michigan has a 70% share of the market in southeastern Michigan. Whatever the Blues does so goes the market. If there were other companies that could come in and make an impact, the Blues might have to become competitive.

    In order for the Blues to get ready for 2014 and Obamacare, they have cut agent commissions 75%. A plan that paid a 4% commission, now pays 1%. Would you want to have that large a cut in commissions?

    Another option would be to stop all the prescription medicine being advertised on television, talk about driving up costs. However, we don't hear about that, do we?

    The issue with healthcare is that is a very complex one. Let's discuss other options, Ok.

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  6. Okay Tom, I was going to write a long reply to each of your points, but decided to just show you this graph instead…

    http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/sure-its-got-to-go-up-but-how-much/

    Why are per capita health care costs so much higher in the U.S. than these other OECD countries? And why, despite all this money we're spending, do they have BETTER outcomes in most statistical categories? You say their system "doesn't work." The evidence indicates otherwise. They get better results at much lower cost. What's not working about that?

    The only reason we can't fix this problem is that the private health insurance companies lobby Congress constantly and make nice contributions to their reelection campaigns. That is the same reason we can't get the Wall Street banks under control, and it is just a matter of time before Goldman Sachs, et. al create the next financial crisis. They are already manipulating oil prices, and we are paying for it at the pump.

    --David

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  7. Regarding David's post. I looked at the post he refers to and the one thing that I have learned is that the old saw "Figures don't lie but liars figure" may be here. I do not know the source of this information but one thing that is sure, Norway and the other Scandinavian countries are taxed significantly higher than the US. Same goes for Germany. But one thing that also shows up is that the growth in Europe is insignificant due to the social spending.
    Someone has to pay for the spending. The costs are the costs.
    When I lived in Germany, my landlady had breast cancer. As part of her rehab, she had to swim daily. Now she could have driven 10 miles to the nearest city to swim, but the German Health Administration (that is not the name) built a swimming pool in her back yard. She thought it was great because she did not have to pay a dime or I should say, Mark. But those costs had to be paid by someone.

    David, if the Obama plan is allowed to become fully active in 2014, you will not have to worry about those bad old insurance companies. They will be out of the health business. There is one very big reason. Each year the insurance companies are mandated under ObamaCare to spend at least 80% (in large plans 85%) of the premiums collected on claims. If the amount is less than the 80% they have to return the "overpayment" to the policyholders. OK fine. But what occurs when the claims exceed the 80% number. The company has to eat it and cannot make up the loss in future years. Each year stands on its own.
    Insurance companies know that one year they might be lucky and not have many claims and then the next year they might get hammered. If a company has too many years in a row that are negative, then they will pull out of the business entirely. By the way about 20 companies have already either pulled out or have significantly restructured their offerings in light of the regulation.
    One thing that always occurs with government regulation, the unintended consequence. Say a company realizes mid year that their claims are going to exceed the 80% rule by a significant
    amount, do you know what they will do? They might stop paying claims, delay payments, investigate "abuses" or whatever excuse they can find to mitigate their losses. They are not going to crash the company just to be "good citizens."

    One thing that many people do not know, every insurance company that operates in this country is already regulated. They cannot hunky dory raise the rates, change policies, change applications, or refund money without getting government approval. Why are so many people unaware of this? Government control has put us in this position and some people think that more control will make it better.
    Hey, the banks were regulated and see what they did for us!!

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  8. Facts are facts. Every other rich country in the world has a per capita health care cost that is lower than the U.S. and has better outcomes by nearly all statistical measures. Do you believe that or not? If not, show me some real evidence.

    Since you questioned the OECD as a data source (I don't know why), here is basically the same story from data compiled by the World Bank….

    UNITED STATES: 15.9 pct of GDP, $6,657 per capita
    BRAZIL: 7.9 pct of GDP, $371 per capita
    CANADA: 9.7 pct of GDP, $3,430 per capita
    CHINA: 4.7 pct of GDP, $81 per capita
    FRANCE: 11.1 pct of GDP, $3,807 per capita
    GERMANY: 10.7 pct of GDP, $3,628 per capita
    INDIA: 5.0 pct of GDP, $36 per capita
    ISRAEL: 7.9 pct of GDP, $1,533 per capita
    JAPAN: 8.2 pct of GDP, $2,936 per capita
    MEXICO: 6.4 pct of GDP, $474 per capita
    SOUTH AFRICA: 8.7 pct of GDP, $437 per capita
    SWEDEN: 8.9 pct of GDP, $3,598 per capita
    RUSSIAN FEDERATION: 5.2 pct of GDP, $277 per capita
    UNITED KINGDOM: 8.2 pct of GDP, $3,064 per capita

    "Private insurance accounted for 34.1% of total health spending in the United States in 2008, by far the largest share among OECD countries. Beside the United States, Canada and France are the only two other OECD countries where private insurance represents more than 10% of total health spending."

    http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/46/2/38980580.pdf

    --David

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  9. David, I see what you wrote, however, why is it that people from all over the globe come here for medical care? Is that it is inferior?

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  10. It is not inferior at the high end, but it is inferior on average. Three good indicators of the overall quality and efficiency of a country's healthcare system are:

    1. Infant mortality.
    2. Mortality amendable to health care.
    3. Life expectancy measured against per capita health care spending.

    On all three of these major indicators the United States is much worse than Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.

    http://www.truthabouthealthcarereform.org/international-comparisons-p3/

    --David

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  11. David, I see that you are a true believer and I would assume that you believe that ObamaCare is wonderful. Is that so?

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  12. No, what would be wonderful would be to cut our per capita health care costs by about 50% and get our outcomes similar to these other countries. It's hard to call it impossible, when you see that every other rich country in the world except the United States has already done it.

    I have shown you the cost data and the outcomes data for all these other countries -- better outcomes at lower cost. That works for me.

    --David

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  13. Obama Care will do nothing of which you want. It will reduce services, increase doctor usage, reduce the number of physicians, reduce the number of hospital beds, and greatly increase the cost.
    Your goal is admirable but not achievable under the current Obama plan.

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  14. The Congressional Budget Office scored both "ObamaCare" and "RyanCare". They concluded ObamaCare would would save $130 billion over the first 10 years and about $1 trillion the next 10 years compared to status quo. They say that by 2030 under RyanCare total health care cost would be more than 40 percent higher than under existing Medicare -- not for the government, but for the country. That is obvious from the international data I showed you. Generally, the more privatized you make a health care system, the higher the per capita costs. That's why we are in last place.

    As you may have surmised by now, I don't want ObamaCare or RyanCare. I want what all the other rich countries of the world already have. The "public option" would have been a good first step in that direction.

    --David

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  15. David, if I could get you the 150 page "summary" of the Obama law you would be astonished and mortified that the Congressional Budget Office even tried to put a number on this plan. In authorization after authorization the verbage is the same: $X appropriated for the year 2010 and "whatever dollars are necessary for years 2011 to 20XX". No kidding!

    The there are the over 100 new agencies and departments established to control this plan.

    There are four new womens health programs and one "supervisory" womens health department. Why no mens health? We already live less years then women so why are we left out.

    I could go on and on but to say this was to reform health care is laughable at best. Remember, Nancy Pilosi said "we need to pass this bill to find out what is in it." Can any legislator be taken seriously when they think like that?

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  16. There are a lot of things yet to be determined, and so I agree financial projections are provisional.

    The exchanges, no exclusions for pre-existing conditions rule, etc. will get more people insured, and that will help. As I said, uninsured patients now go to the emergency rooms, and we pay for it indirectly. It costs much less to detect and cure cancer through an annual checkup, than to wait until the uninsured person finally shows up at the emergency room after it has metastasized, requiring major surgery, chemotherapy, radiation, etc. That is an example of why our per capita costs and outcomes are so much worse than other countries that have most of their population insured.

    Another good thing in the ACA is forcing the insurance companies to cost justify any annual premium increase that is over 10%. They are making huge profits by increasing rates multiple times the inflation rate over the last decade. That needs to stop. That would lower our premiums and their profits. The other thing I like is forcing them to improve their medical loss ratio. That puts more money in patient care and less money in their pockets.

    These things are nice, but the biggest potential cost-saver in the ACA is going to be getting rid of the "fee-for-services" model completely. Right now, Medicare just pays providers for anything and everything they charge. It is a blank check. That gives these for-profit companies a financial incentive to do more, not less. That is another big reason the U.S. per capita cost is double all those other countries.

    This is not to say I think the ACA is all "wonderful". It is just better than what we had previously. The real solution, though, is to get to the same basic model as the rest of the world. We may have to get there in steps.

    --David

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  17. Quotes from the latest Canadian Commonwealth Fund study of international health care….

    "The comprehensive health reform legislation recently signed into law in the United States will undoubtedly ameliorate some of these problems. The establishment of health insurance exchanges, income- related premium subsidies, minimum standard benefit packages, and new insurance market regulations, effective in 2014, will help extend coverage to 32 million previously uninsured Americans and contribute greatly to the stability and security of coverage of those who already have it.20 Closing gaps in coverage will lend itself to better disease management, greater care coordination, and superior outcomes over time…. These results indicate a consistent relationship between how a country performs in terms of equity and how patients then rate performance on other dimensions of quality: the lower the performance score for equity, the lower the performance on other measures. This suggests that, when a country fails to meet the needs of the most vulnerable, it also fails to meet the needs of the average citizen. Rather than disregarding performance on equity as a separate and lesser concern, the U.S. should devote far greater attention to seeing a health system that works well for all Americans. The U.S. has passed historic legislation that promises to improve health insurance coverage and quality of care for low- and moderate-income families. This is an important first step, but the nation must remain vigilant about monitoring the experiences and outcomes of vulnerable populations. In doing so, it can continue to make progress toward a high performance health sys- tem that can truly be called “the best in the world.”

    http://www.commonwealthfund.org/~/media/Files/Publications/Fund%20Report/2010/Jun/1400_Davis_Mirror_Mirror_on_the_wall_2010.pdf

    ===============
    For now, if you want "the best in the world," move to the Netherlands. Their model uses more private insurance than most of the other European countries, but still has nearly universal coverage at low cost. I believe, as the ACA is implemented, a view toward how the Netherlands manages their system would serve as a good guide.

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