Thai Radar Data Given To Malaysia

In the following posting today from AP, it shows us how little the world knows about radar.  Folks, it is not magic and we believe the immense dependency that is being placed on this technology is misunderstood.

First some facts.  Radar is only a beam that is sent out from an antenna and when it hits something solid it returns to the same antenna. This return is then displayed on a scope as a blob of fluorescent light. A normal return is very small. It can be less than an eighth of an inch on some scopes.  This is the reason the Japanese planes that attacked Pearl Harbor were thought to be either our planes or geese.

Present day radar is assisted by a transponder on the airplane which connects a tag to the "blob" indicating the airplane flight number, altitude, and direction it is flying. When the electronics are turned off, in the case of Malaysian Flight MH370, all the radar operator will see is the blob.

If he/she is paying attention when the transponder is turned off, that operator can then follow the blob as the radar continues to paint the plane. However, radar range at its best is 200 miles (can be less due to the plane's altitude,  terrain and weather) and if the plane is at the edge of coverage, it might only see the plane every twenty or thirty seconds. Following intermittent returns, is a guess at best.

So when we saw the following story which seems to blame Thailand for not turning over its radar, it raised our hackles.  Unless Malaysia knew the direction of the plane when it left their radars and knew where Thai radars would have picked up the radar return then the data might have been important, otherwise, it would not have been helpful.

Additionally, there are all sorts of planes flying under 10,000 feet under visual flight rules (VFR). These aircraft are not under radar control and not in contact with any control center. If the Malaysian plane actually descended to 5000 as some have prognosticated, any radar returns would be mixed with other general or military aviation operating at that altitude.  In addition, the amount of returns one would get at that low altitude would be very limited.

For example, we were radar operators in Thailand in the 1970's during the "Vietnam experience."  Our radar set was in Ubon Thailand on the Laos border but we could see Phnom Penh in Cambodia, however, at 150 miles south our lowest limit of our radar was 20,000 feet as there was a mountain range that cut off our ability to see below that altitude.  If the Malaysian plane was flying at 18,000 feet over Cambodia, we would not have been able to see them.

Radar has its distinct limitations and they are compounded when the plane's transponders are shut down.  For anyone to say that they can follow a raw radar trail and know where it is going, does not understand the tool. It is not possible.

On top of those limitations, most radars (if not all) are land based. Once the 200 mile range is exceeded, pilots are relying on their instruments and ground controllers only contact may be radio. So, if the pilots of MH370 wanted to evade radar, it would be entirely possible.

We still feel that this plane has been taken somewhere to be repainted and loaded with some weapon (nuclear, biological) to be flown as a missile against some enemy.  Against whom or where the attack might attack is still conjecture. 

Our belief is based on several things. First, there has been no claiming of responsibility, no demand for ransom. Second, neither pilot never left a note that he was on a suicide mission. Third, no emergency was declared, no Mayday was voiced. Fourth, the transponders had to be turned off manually. Five, the engines kept running for hours after they went off the screen. Six, the Captain (Shah) had a flight simulator in his house, could he been planning ? Seven, European sources say there was 25 tons of gold in the hold of the plane. Eight, (and probably least important) there has not been any finding of wreckage, debris or any satellite or seismic activity that would indicate a plane blew up.

Of course, this all could be wrong and if so, we will admit our error and move on. However, this plane disappeared and it looks like it was meant to do so. And until further information is obtained to the contrary, we will stay committed to our opinion.

Conservative Tom

Thailand gives radar data 10 days after plane lost

Tuesday, March 18th 2014, 9:35 am

Thanyarat Doksone - Associated Press

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BANGKOK (AP) — Thailand's military said Tuesday that its radar detected a plane that may have been Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 just minutes after the jetliner's communications went down, and that it didn't share the information with Malaysia earlier because it wasn't specifically asked for it.

A twisting flight path described Tuesday by Thai air force spokesman Air Vice Marshal Montol Suchookorn took the plane to the Strait of Malacca, which is where Malaysian radar tracked Flight 370 early March 8. But Montol said the Thai military doesn't know whether it detected the same plane.

Thailand's failure to quickly share possible information regarding the fate of the plane, and the 239 people aboard it, may not substantially change what Malaysian officials know, but it raises questions about the degree to which some countries are sharing their defense information, even in the name of an urgent and mind-bending aviation mystery.

With only its own radar to go on, it took Malaysia a week to confirm that Flight 370 had entered the strait, an important detail that led it to change its search strategy.

When asked why it took so long to release the information, Montol said, "Because we did not pay any attention to it. The Royal Thai Air Force only looks after any threats against our country, so anything that did not look like a threat to us, we simply look at it without taking actions."

He said the plane never entered Thai airspace and that Malaysia's initial request for information in the early days of the search was not specific.

"When they asked again and there was new information and assumptions from (Malaysian) Prime Minister Najib Razak, we took a look at our information again," Montol said. "It didn't take long for us to figure out, although it did take some experts to find out about it."

Flight 370 took off from Kuala Lumpur at 12:40 a.m. Malaysian time and its transponder, which allows air traffic controllers to identify and track the airplane, ceased communicating at 1:20 a.m.

Montol said that at 1:28 a.m., Thai military radar "was able to detect a signal, which was not a normal signal, of a plane flying in the direction opposite from the MH370 plane," back toward Kuala Lumpur. The plane later turned right, toward Butterworth, a Malaysian city along the Strait of Malacca. The radar signal was infrequent and did not include any data such as the flight number.

He said he didn't know exactly when Thai radar last detected the plane. Malaysian officials have said Flight 370 was last detected by their own military radar at 2:14 a.m.

The search area for the plane initially focused on the South China Sea, where ships and planes spent a week searching. Pings that a satellite detected from the plane hours after its communications went down have led authorities to concentrate instead on two vast arcs — one into central Asia and the other into the Indian Ocean — that together cover an expanse as big as Australia.

Thai officials said radar equipment in southern Thailand detected the plane. Malaysian officials have said the plane might ultimately have passed through northern Thailand, but Thai Air Chief Marshal Prajin Juntong told reporters Tuesday that the country's northern radar did not detect it.