Hate Him Or Love Him, Consumer Confidence Shows Things Are Getting Better.

trump cake

US consumer confidence spiked to a 16-year high in March, according to the Conference Board's monthly survey. 

The headline index jumped to 125.6, the highest since December 2000. Economists had forecast that the index dipped in March to 114.0 from a 15-year high of 114.8, according to Bloomberg. 

Consumers were more positive about the labor market and economic conditions. The share of people who expected jobs to be plentiful also jumped to a 16-year high.

The Conference Board's index rose to a new high after President Donald Trump's election, alongside other gauges of consumer confidence that showed renewed optimism. Business owners' confidence also spiked following Trump's promises to scale back regulations and cut corporate taxes. 

What other surveys have shown, in addition, is that feelings about the economy are split along party lines, with Republicans suddenly turning super-bullish and Democrats becoming bearish after the presidential election. 

"Consumers also expressed much greater optimism regarding the short-term outlook for business, jobs and personal income prospects," said the Conference Board's Lynn Franco. "Thus, consumers feel current economic conditions have improved over the recent period, and their renewed optimism suggests the possibility of some upside to the prospects for economic growth in the coming months."

All these are part of so-called soft data that have improved since the election. Hard data that measure actual economic activity, not just expectations, have been more mixed.

Oh How The Dems Are Going To Hate This News

Trump Tweets "Thanks Donald" For Highest Consumer Confidence In 15 Years

by Tyler Durden

Dec 28, 2016 7:02 AM

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When we observed yesterday that according to the latest Conference Board data, US consumer confidence had soared to 113.7, the highest print since August 2001, we had just one question: would Trump take credit for the spike...

... which even the organization behind the index admitted was driven entirely by hope in the Trump administration, as the rebound was "due solely to increasing Expectations which hit a 13-year high"

"The post-election surge in optimism for the economy, jobs and income prospects, as well as for stock prices which reached a 13-year high, was most pronounced among older consumers."

Meanwhile, absent hope for the future, reality for most US consumers deteriorated and their assessment of current conditions declined, with those saying business conditions are "good" decreased slightly from 29.7 percent to 29.2 percent, while those saying business conditions are "bad" increased from 15.2 percent to 17.3 percent.

As the Conference Board correctly notes, consumers' "continued optimism will depend
on whether or not their expectations are realized."

One person, however, who is quite confident the surge in confidence will continue, was President-elect Donald Trump, who in a late Tuesday night tweet, credited himself for the surge in optimism on Twitter, writing "Thanks Donald!"

 Follow

Donald J. Trump 

✔@realDonaldTrump

The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for December surged nearly four points to 113.7, THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN 15 YEARS! Thanks Donald!

10:10 PM - 27 Dec 2016

 
•  15,06915,069 Retweets
 
•  56,61256,612 likes

Trump's latest tweet follows a similar one from Monday night when he tweeted that "The world was gloomy before I won - there was no hope. Now the market is up nearly 10% and Christmas spending is over a trillion dollars!"

 Follow

Donald J. Trump 

✔@realDonaldTrump

The world was gloomy before I won - there was no hope. Now the market is up nearly 10% and Christmas spending is over a trillion dollars!

6:32 PM - 26 Dec 2016

 
•  28,28728,287 Retweets
 
•  116,909116,909 likes

As we asked on Monday, "we wonder what Trump will sat if/when Goldman Sachs stops rising and stocks tumble ("never gonna happen", probably The Fed's fault after all), but perhaps even more importantly, how does he feel about the $1.2 trillion of value he has erased from global capital markets (equity and debt) since his election?"

For now Trump is clearly eager to take credit for the surge in markets to record highs, as well as the associated surge in consumer confidence, both of which however have been driven by market hopes that Trump will reflate assets, something which was clearly lost on the latest UMichigan consumer confidence survey which showed US inflation expectations are the lowest on record. We doubt he will be as vocal when the hangover from the recent rally finally hits, unless of course, stocks manage to last the next four years without any corrections, an otherwise laughable prospect which however in this strange "new abnormal", has to be taken quite seriously.