AAN Political Intel Report: Mississippi,
Illinois, Virginia
Candidate filing closed last Friday for the MS-1
special election, which Rep. Alan Nunnelee’s (R)
death made necessary. Twelve Republicans and
one Democrat will be on the May 12th jungle primary
ballot. With so many candidates qualifying, a June
2nd run-off between the top two finishers is a virtual
certainty, since it would be very difficult for any
one contender to attract a majority of the vote.
One prominent name missing from the list is former Rep. Travis Childers (D), who won the last
One prominent name missing from the list is former Rep. Travis Childers (D), who won the last
special election held here, and then claimed a full term later in 2008. He was unseated in 2010,
and then lost to Sen. Thad Cochran (R) last November in a statewide general election contest.
Though it is always possible lightning could have again struck for him in a special election, the
chance of Mr. Childers holding this strongly Republican northern Mississippi district for a long
duration is an unlikely one, at best. Hence, his decision not to run.
The lone Democrat running is former Jackson mayoral aide Walter Zinn. His prospects of
The lone Democrat running is former Jackson mayoral aide Walter Zinn. His prospects of
qualifying for the run-off are somewhat realistic because the Republican vote will be split literally
a dozen ways. His prospects are thin, however, to capture the seat in the run-off. Aside from
being a prohibitive underdog against a Republican in a one-on-one battle, Zinn’s Jackson
political base is not even in the 1st District.
The state transportation commissioner, two local prosecutors, a state legislator, an ex-Mayor,
The state transportation commissioner, two local prosecutors, a state legislator, an ex-Mayor,
and a former Jackson City Councilman – having the same geographical problem as Zinn –
comprise the major part of the Republican field.
Illinois Senate
As predicted last week, Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL-8) did officially announce her
Illinois Senate
As predicted last week, Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL-8) did officially announce her
Senatorial candidacy yesterday, but she may not have a clean primary. Three other
US House delegation members earlier expressed interest in running statewide, and
two of them are still not ruling out entering the Democratic primary. The winner faces
first-term Sen. Mark Kirk (R), who may well be the most vulnerable Republican standing
for re-election in 2016.
Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL-17) has virtually taken herself out of consideration, saying she
Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL-17) has virtually taken herself out of consideration, saying she
entering the Senatorial contest is “highly unlikely.” Rep. Bustos came one step short of
endorsing Ms. Duckworth.
Reps. Robin Kelly (D-IL-2) and Bill Foster (D-IL-11), however, did not commit to stepping
Reps. Robin Kelly (D-IL-2) and Bill Foster (D-IL-11), however, did not commit to stepping
aside, with both leaving the door very much open for their potential candidacies.
In the end, it will probably be Rep. Duckworth standing alone in her quest for the nomination,
In the end, it will probably be Rep. Duckworth standing alone in her quest for the nomination,
but it will be several interesting weeks before these two federal officeholders, and maybe
others, finally agree to step aside.
Virginia Redistricting
The Commonwealth of Virginia is one of three states that were waiting for the Supreme
Virginia Redistricting
The Commonwealth of Virginia is one of three states that were waiting for the Supreme
Court to rule on the Alabama state legislative case, a decision made public last week.
It became clear even before making the final ruling that the high court was using the
Alabama case as a benchmark for issuing a directive about minority congressional districts.
The three states, Florida and Texas in addition to Virginia, had previously declared certain
congressional districts as unconstitutional. The Supreme Court took action in relation to
the Virginia case yesterday and we may see redrawing action coming much sooner,
rather than later.
Instead of hearing the Virginia case, since they returned the Alabama case back to that
Instead of hearing the Virginia case, since they returned the Alabama case back to that
state last week, the high court sent back the Virginia map to the jurisdictional three-judge
panel and told them to reconsider their previous ruling based upon the new Alabama
decision. SCOTUS’ latest action appears to further weaken the Voting Rights Act,
which means minority retrogression could practically become less important if minority
voters have a stronger say in a greater number of districts.
If the special judicial panel responds, and sends the map to the legislature for a redraw
If the special judicial panel responds, and sends the map to the legislature for a redraw
or manipulates the lines themselves, several districts in addition to Rep. Bobby Scott’s
(D-VA-3) CD will be affected. Mr. Scott’s district, declared unconstitutional last year,
stretches from Richmond into the Norfolk/Virginia Beach area. It is this latter region
where we will see the most significant boundary changes. The members most likely
affected, in addition to Rep. Scott, are Reps. Scott Rigell (R-VA-2) and Randy Forbes
(R-VA-4). Source: American Action News
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