We never were believers in man-caused global warming and I am sure there will be some who will disagree but as we continue to read more email communications from the promoters of this junk science, our viewpoint is becoming more vindicated.
The reasons for our doubt is based upon a couple issues. The first was, who was promoting the idea . When you have former Vice President Al Gore making millions on this scheme while still driving SUVs, flying private planes and living in massive houses with out any retrofitting to benefit the climate, our hypocrisy meter jumps sky high. Someone who really believed what he was promoting would LIVE it, Gore isn't.
Additionally, when the world leaders of the global warming movement went to Copenhagen in hundreds of private planes and arrived at their meeting in limousines, it showed me the whole group was involved in a scam!
I am not a scientist but I have some basic scientific questions. As I understand it, a model must be 95% accurate as to be considered predictable. The model that has been used to predict the dire environmental events is only 90% by ICCC admission. This is a significant difference.
Another basic tenant of the global warming fear crowd is that the icebergs will melt, flooding lower lying areas around the world. This might be right if one ignored basic science. Fill a glass with ice, pack it to the top and let it melt. The glass does not overflow. There is one main reason, ice takes up more space than water. If the icebergs melt, it will take up less space and therefore will not flood the earth. The false argument is ignoring basics. Why? People are basically ignorant of basic science and the story pulls at the heart strings.
So when we read the emails, I am not surprised at all to read that the promoters had secret concerns. If the "hockey stick" increase in temperatures was proven to be false, their whole argument would be damaged significantly. So they arbitrarily "adjusted" the data to match the argument. Not very scientifically pure, but they have other reasons.
We believe they want to hurt the developed nations by transferring trillions to the non-developed countries through schemes like "cap and trade" which really is a transfer of pollution credits from one nation to another. It does nothing to reduce the pollution, just moving dollars.
Here is the latest on Climategate, enjoy it and let me know what you think.
Conservative Tom
Climategate (Part II) – A sequel as ugly as the original.
(A small snippet redacted from an extensive, in-depth shocking analysis)
BY STEVEN F. HAYWARD
The Weekly Standard, DEC 12, 2011
http://israel-commentary.org/?p=2357
… Climategate I, the release of a few thousand emails and documents from the CRU (Climate Research Unit of East Anglia University) in November 2009, revealed that the united-front clubbiness of the leading climate scientists was just a display for public consumption. The science of climate change was not “settled.” There was no consensus about the extent and causes of global warming; in their private emails, the scientists expressed serious doubts and disagreements on some major issues. In particular, the email exchanges showed that they were far from agreement about a key part of the global warming narrative—the famous “hockey stick” graph that purported to demonstrate that the last 30 years were the warmest of the last millennium and which made the “medieval warm period,” an especially problematic phenomenon for the climate campaign, simply go away. (See my “Scientists Behaving Badly,” The Weekly Standard, December 14, 2009.) Leading scientists in the inner circle expressed significant doubts and uncertainty about the hockey stick and several other global warming claims about which we are repeatedly told there exists an ironclad consensus among scientists. (Many of the new emails make this point even more powerfully.) On the merits, the 2009 emails showed that the case for certainty about climate change was grossly overstated.
More damning than the substantive disagreement was the attitude the CRU circle displayed toward dissenters, skeptics, and science journals that did not strictly adhere to the party line. Dissenting articles were blocked from publication or review by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), requests for raw data were rebuffed, and Freedom of Information Act requests were stonewalled. National science panels were stacked, and qualified dissenters such as NASA prize-winner John Christy were tolerated as “token skeptics.”
One thing that emerges from the new emails is that, while a large number of scientists are working on separate, detailed nodes of climate-related issues (the reason for dozens of authors for every IPCC report chapter), the circle of scientists who control the syntheses that go into IPCC reports and the national climate reports that the U.S. and other governments occasionally produce is quite small and partial to particular outcomes of these periodic assessments. The way the process works in practice casts a shadow over one of the favorite claims of the climate campaign—namely, that there exists a firm “consensus” about catastrophic future warming among thousands of scientists. This so-called consensus reflects only the views of a much smaller subset of gatekeepers. … Definite examples of political influence have emerged already from a first pass over a sample of the massive cache.
No amount of context can possibly exonerate the CRU gang from some of the damning expressions and contrivances that appear repeatedly in the new emails. More so than the 2009 batch, these emails make clear the close collaboration between the leading IPCC scientists and environmental advocacy groups, government agencies, and partisan journalists. There are repeated instances of scientists tipping their hand that they’ve thrown in their lot with the climate ideologues. If there were only a handful of such dubious messages, they might be explained away through “context,” or as conciliatory habits of expression. But they are so numerous that it doesn’t require an advanced degree in pattern recognition to make out that these emails constitute not just a “smoking gun” of scientific bias, but a belching howitzer. Throughout the emails numerous participants refer to “the cause,” “our cause,” and other nonscientific, value-laden terms to describe the implications of one dispute or another, while demonizing scientists who express even partial dissent about the subject, such as Judith Curry of Georgia Tech.
These are only a few of the many problems with the climate models on which all of the predictions of doom decades hence depend. It will take months of careful review to sort the wheat from the chaff, but there is enough evidence already to support the conclusion that the climate science establishment has greatly exaggerated what it knows.
… If Climategate II does poor box office, it won’t be because the various internal reviews exonerated the CRU from the narrow allegations of fraud in Climategate I, but because the whole show has become a crashing bore. The latest U.N. climate summit that opened last week in Durban, South Africa, is struggling to keep the diplomatic circus on life support. … Yet there is one more tantalizing detail that has been largely overlooked in the commentary so far. According to “FOIA,” the online name of the hacker/leaker behind the release of these emails, there are another 220,000 emails still out there, blocked by a heavily encrypted password that “FOIA” vaguely threatens or promises to release at some future date. Stay tuned for Climategate III.
Steven F. Hayward is the F.K. Weyerhaeuser fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of the Almanac of Environmental Trends
The reasons for our doubt is based upon a couple issues. The first was, who was promoting the idea . When you have former Vice President Al Gore making millions on this scheme while still driving SUVs, flying private planes and living in massive houses with out any retrofitting to benefit the climate, our hypocrisy meter jumps sky high. Someone who really believed what he was promoting would LIVE it, Gore isn't.
Additionally, when the world leaders of the global warming movement went to Copenhagen in hundreds of private planes and arrived at their meeting in limousines, it showed me the whole group was involved in a scam!
I am not a scientist but I have some basic scientific questions. As I understand it, a model must be 95% accurate as to be considered predictable. The model that has been used to predict the dire environmental events is only 90% by ICCC admission. This is a significant difference.
Another basic tenant of the global warming fear crowd is that the icebergs will melt, flooding lower lying areas around the world. This might be right if one ignored basic science. Fill a glass with ice, pack it to the top and let it melt. The glass does not overflow. There is one main reason, ice takes up more space than water. If the icebergs melt, it will take up less space and therefore will not flood the earth. The false argument is ignoring basics. Why? People are basically ignorant of basic science and the story pulls at the heart strings.
So when we read the emails, I am not surprised at all to read that the promoters had secret concerns. If the "hockey stick" increase in temperatures was proven to be false, their whole argument would be damaged significantly. So they arbitrarily "adjusted" the data to match the argument. Not very scientifically pure, but they have other reasons.
We believe they want to hurt the developed nations by transferring trillions to the non-developed countries through schemes like "cap and trade" which really is a transfer of pollution credits from one nation to another. It does nothing to reduce the pollution, just moving dollars.
Here is the latest on Climategate, enjoy it and let me know what you think.
Conservative Tom
Climategate (Part II) – A sequel as ugly as the original.
(A small snippet redacted from an extensive, in-depth shocking analysis)
BY STEVEN F. HAYWARD
The Weekly Standard, DEC 12, 2011
http://israel-commentary.org/?p=2357
… Climategate I, the release of a few thousand emails and documents from the CRU (Climate Research Unit of East Anglia University) in November 2009, revealed that the united-front clubbiness of the leading climate scientists was just a display for public consumption. The science of climate change was not “settled.” There was no consensus about the extent and causes of global warming; in their private emails, the scientists expressed serious doubts and disagreements on some major issues. In particular, the email exchanges showed that they were far from agreement about a key part of the global warming narrative—the famous “hockey stick” graph that purported to demonstrate that the last 30 years were the warmest of the last millennium and which made the “medieval warm period,” an especially problematic phenomenon for the climate campaign, simply go away. (See my “Scientists Behaving Badly,” The Weekly Standard, December 14, 2009.) Leading scientists in the inner circle expressed significant doubts and uncertainty about the hockey stick and several other global warming claims about which we are repeatedly told there exists an ironclad consensus among scientists. (Many of the new emails make this point even more powerfully.) On the merits, the 2009 emails showed that the case for certainty about climate change was grossly overstated.
More damning than the substantive disagreement was the attitude the CRU circle displayed toward dissenters, skeptics, and science journals that did not strictly adhere to the party line. Dissenting articles were blocked from publication or review by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), requests for raw data were rebuffed, and Freedom of Information Act requests were stonewalled. National science panels were stacked, and qualified dissenters such as NASA prize-winner John Christy were tolerated as “token skeptics.”
One thing that emerges from the new emails is that, while a large number of scientists are working on separate, detailed nodes of climate-related issues (the reason for dozens of authors for every IPCC report chapter), the circle of scientists who control the syntheses that go into IPCC reports and the national climate reports that the U.S. and other governments occasionally produce is quite small and partial to particular outcomes of these periodic assessments. The way the process works in practice casts a shadow over one of the favorite claims of the climate campaign—namely, that there exists a firm “consensus” about catastrophic future warming among thousands of scientists. This so-called consensus reflects only the views of a much smaller subset of gatekeepers. … Definite examples of political influence have emerged already from a first pass over a sample of the massive cache.
No amount of context can possibly exonerate the CRU gang from some of the damning expressions and contrivances that appear repeatedly in the new emails. More so than the 2009 batch, these emails make clear the close collaboration between the leading IPCC scientists and environmental advocacy groups, government agencies, and partisan journalists. There are repeated instances of scientists tipping their hand that they’ve thrown in their lot with the climate ideologues. If there were only a handful of such dubious messages, they might be explained away through “context,” or as conciliatory habits of expression. But they are so numerous that it doesn’t require an advanced degree in pattern recognition to make out that these emails constitute not just a “smoking gun” of scientific bias, but a belching howitzer. Throughout the emails numerous participants refer to “the cause,” “our cause,” and other nonscientific, value-laden terms to describe the implications of one dispute or another, while demonizing scientists who express even partial dissent about the subject, such as Judith Curry of Georgia Tech.
These are only a few of the many problems with the climate models on which all of the predictions of doom decades hence depend. It will take months of careful review to sort the wheat from the chaff, but there is enough evidence already to support the conclusion that the climate science establishment has greatly exaggerated what it knows.
… If Climategate II does poor box office, it won’t be because the various internal reviews exonerated the CRU from the narrow allegations of fraud in Climategate I, but because the whole show has become a crashing bore. The latest U.N. climate summit that opened last week in Durban, South Africa, is struggling to keep the diplomatic circus on life support. … Yet there is one more tantalizing detail that has been largely overlooked in the commentary so far. According to “FOIA,” the online name of the hacker/leaker behind the release of these emails, there are another 220,000 emails still out there, blocked by a heavily encrypted password that “FOIA” vaguely threatens or promises to release at some future date. Stay tuned for Climategate III.
Steven F. Hayward is the F.K. Weyerhaeuser fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of the Almanac of Environmental Trends
Scientists have been measuring sea levels and ocean temperatures for decades. Both are steadily increasing…
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080618143301.htm
You have the wrong imagery in your water glass view. Basic physics: warm water has more volume than cold water. So, if you heat your glass of water, the water level will rise. Same story for oceans. Also, where do you think all the water from melting glaciers ends up? It flow from land to sea, which raises the sea level and reduces the ice sheet. Go to the Arctic Circle and interview the polar bears. They will tell you all about it.
If you want to know the scientific consensus that humans are causing this, you need to expand your reading list beyond the American Enterprise Institute. You could begin with this article and its links…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
The problem with your conspiracy theorists, is that, as you will discover if you bother to investigate, there have been scientists from different academic fields and from all over world with no connection to IPCC doing independent measurements with different types of instrumentation for decades and coming to the same conclusions.
--David
David, instead of criticizing my comments, it you who needs to consider the contrary information.
ReplyDeleteIf sea ice is increasing, the polar bears are OK. So are temps!
I am concerned that you are only considering what the lame stream media is talking about. You know they are not on the side of the little people!
For example from the university of colorado:
Antarctic Sea Ice for March 2010 Significantly Greater Than 1980
Admin, Tuesday 06 April 2010 - 23:14:32 //
Contrary to media reports Antarctic sea ice continues to expand. Ice totals for March 2010 are significantly higher than 1980. The main stream media concentrates on a couple of small areas of the Antarctic in order to scare you in to believing that Antarctica is melting, when in fact its gaining ice.
From the National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado
Antarctic Sea Ice for March 1980 and 2010
Extent Concentration2010 4.0 million sq km 2.6 million sq km1980 3.5 million sq km 2.0 million sq kmSea Ice Extent in March 2010 is over 14% greater than in 1980
Sea Ice Concentration in March 2010 is 30% greater than in 1980!
Since measurements began in 1979 antarctic sea ice has continued to expand, contrary to what the news media would have you believe. We bring this information to you month after month and still there is no sign of the main stream media picking up on the story. They continue to discuss the relatively small areas of the Western Antarctic Peninsula that are melting due to changes in ocean currents.
You may have heard that some of the “computer models” predicted increases in antarctic ice, but they predicted increased “interior ice” due to increased snow fall. None of the models predicted increased sea ice around the antarctic. Yet that is what we have, more sea ice in March 2010 than what we had in March of 1980. This is highly significant yet hardly anyone in the main stream media (MSM) is talking about it.
Sea ice is much different than interior ice. Some of the computer models predicted increased ice over the interior of antarctic. If you've ever lived in the extreme cold temperature regions you already understand the reason why. When it gets very cold the air become drier and it snows less, as the temperature warms towards freezing it actually snows more. Since the antarctic rarely even gets close to freezing its understandable that warming would cause more snow fall. Over time compacted snow would lead to more ice. But that is not what is happening here. We're seeing increases in “sea ice”, this ice is over the ocean. Sea ice is caused by colder temperatures, not by increased snow fall. But we hear nothing from either the MSM or the scientific community. Especially compared to the out 6%-7% decrease at the arctic (this isn't year over year, this is a 6% decline since 1980!).
This continues a long trend of increasing sea ice that has been noted here for several months.
If sea ice is increasing, the polar bears are OK. So are temps!
"The new analyses are based on climate models and sea-surface temperature and precipitation observations from 1950 to 2009. They show that, in the 20th century, ocean warming boosted precipitation in the upper atmosphere over the Antarctic region, which fell as snow.
ReplyDelete(Related: "Antarctica Heating Up, 'Ignored' Satellite Data Show.")
More snow made the top layers of the ocean less salty and thus less dense. These layers became more stable, preventing warm, density-driven currents in the deep ocean from rising and melting sea ice."
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/08/100816-global-warming-antarctica-sea-ice-paradox-science-environment/
--------------------
Now go interview a few polar bears. Ask them, "How's it going?" You'll have to go the the Arctic Circle to find them!
--David