CNN Poll: Huge Swing to GOP Puts Senate in Play
Tuesday, 26 Nov 2013 09:41 AM
The GOP has a real chance of taking control of both the House and the Senate, as rich, white, and rural voters move away from the Democrats, the CNN/ORC International survey shows.
Now the question remains: Can the party hold onto those new supporters in the 12 months running up to next year's crucial midterm vote?
A month ago the Republicans were reeling as the blame for the government shutdown in the bitter battle over the Affordable Care Act was laid at the GOP's door. In a generic ballot last month, asking voters to pick between Democrats and Republicans in their congressional district without naming candidates, Democrats were chosen, 50 percent to 42 percent.
But things have turned around in the past four weeks as the extent of the problems with Obamacare have become clear. The new poll shows a staggering 10 percent reversal for the Democrats, and Republicans now lead 49 percent to 47 percent.
"It looks like the biggest shifts toward the Republicans came among white voters, higher-income Americans, and people who live in rural areas," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
"If those patterns persist into 2014, it may indicate that Obamacare is popular among those who it was designed to help the most, but unpopular among the larger group of voters who are personally less concerned about health insurance and healthcare,"
He added, however, that Democrats have gained strength in the past month among some of their "natural constituencies," including non-white and lower-income voters.
As Newsmax revealed Monday, the national poll also showed that only four out of every 10 Americans believe Obama is managing the government "effectively" and that 53 percent of the nation does not believe that the president is "honest and trustworthy."
The 40 percent approval figure is a 12 percent freefall by Obama compared to a similar survey five months ago, while the 53 percent was the largest statistic in a CNN survey who said they thought that Obama was dishonest.
Republicans have a 17-seat advantage in the House while Democrats hold a 55-45 majority in the Senate. Thirty-five of the 100 Senate seats are up for election in the midterms — 33 scheduled along with special elections in South Carolina and Hawaii — giving Republicans another opportunity to wrest the upper chamber away from the Democrats for the first time since 2006.
Earlier this month a survey by Quinnipiac University showed that Obama's approval rating was at its lowest level, with just 39 percent, since he entered the White House in 2009. A majority also said he was not honest and trustworthy.
CNN says its generic polls are often used as an indication of whether Republicans or Democrats are likely to take control in Congress. But CNN polling chief Holland said results can also change dramatically in the next 12 months.
"A year before the 2010 midterms, for example, the Democrats held a 6-point lead on the generic ballot, but the GOP wound up regaining control of the House in that election cycle, thanks to a 63-seat pickup," he said.
The president, however, could take an been bigger hit in the next approval survey because he's now under fire from both parties for the controversial six-month deal with Iran to limit its nuclear capability in return for easing sanctions.
The phone poll was conducted Nov. 18-20, and has a 3.5-point margin or error.
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